
14 Dec 12142018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading
12142018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday |
12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | 12/12/2018 | 12/13/2018 | 12/14/2018 | |
Beers night before | 12 | 1 | 1 red wine | 2 red wines | 4 |
Hours sleep | 5 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 |
Sleep well? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1.5 coffee | 0 | 1 espresso | half cup in early morning, 1 espresso afternoon | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
no | no | yes | no rice etc. | yes | |
Water 2.2L bottles | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I think overall I feel healthy. My arm feels better so I’m gonna keep doing some exercises and see how that develops.
- How do you feel?
- I didn’t sleep enough but I think I can take it today since I slept a good 8 hours for everyday for the past few days
- I feel way less emotional about yesterday’s development. I think I should still take today off. I have a dinner today so that will also make it easier on me.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- For the first time we crossed the Daily VWAP mean after a long bear run
- After the bear run we started ranging between the 50.50 and 53 levels
- We have still not broken that range though so we should still be cautious to state that the bear run is over
- On the 4H chart we can have a better look at that
- The 30M chart shows us that we rejected the 50.50 level again and soon after we made a move to the 53 level and even made it to the 53.30 level but failed to break it and then we retreated to 52.50 level
- On the 30M we can see that this r52.50 level is just above the UKC and and VWAP mean so this could hold as support
- For the first time we crossed the Daily VWAP mean after a long bear run
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 59% bullish
- Last week 64% bullish
- Last 3 days 66% bullish
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 59% bullish
- Last week 65% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- Last week and last 3 days increased by 1 point
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- Previous range
- Low 1.13159
- High 1.13867
- Yesterday’s range
- Low 1.13320
- High 1.13934
- According to IG client sentiment
- Mixed bias still even though 58.1% are still net-long on the pair
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 58.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 23 when EURUSD traded near 1.1388; price has moved 0.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% higher than yesterday and 10.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week.
- Previous range
- Gold
- Yesterday’s numbers
- Low 1242.28
- High 1247.09
- Close 1245.23
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 69% bullish
- Last week 68% bullish
- Last 3 days 70% bullish
- Gold sentiment has increased by 1 point all across the board. Probably because of more global turmoil making investors put their money into gold
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com today
- Today’s numbers
- Low 1240.26
- High 1246.69
- Close 1241.69
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 69% bullish
- Last week 69% bullish
- Last 3 days 71% bullish
- Gold sentiment has again increased by 1 point last week and last 3 days. Perhaps because of more global turmoil making investors put their money into gold
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com today
- According to IG
- Gold Sentiment Gives a Strong Bearish Bias
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.7% higher than yesterday and 5.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week.
- Gold Sentiment Gives a Strong Bearish Bias
- Yesterday’s numbers
- Geopolitics
- Yemen’s warring parties agree to ceasefire in Hodeidah and U.N. role
- U.S. to counter China, Russia influence in Africa: Bolton
- The United States plans to counter the rapidly expanding Chinese and Russian economic and political influence in Africa, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Thursday, calling business practices of the two nations “corrupt” and “predatory.”
- May urges EU to help get Brexit ‘over the line’
- Britain’s weakened prime minister, Theresa May, appealed to fellow EU leaders on Thursday for concessions to help her win support in parliament next month for a deal that can smooth Britain’s exit from the European Union.
- Captured Ukrainian navy captains tell Russia: we won’t testify
- Russia seized three Ukrainian navy vessels and their combined crew of 24 last month off the coast of Russian-annexed Crimea and accused them of illegally entering Russian waters.
- Forex — U.S. Dollar Inches Higher After Jobless Claims
- The U.S. dollar was higher on Thursday, as the number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits hit a two-and-a-half month low.
- Huawei $2 billion security pledge followed walkout by British official: sources
- Huawei’s relations with British authorities hit a low last month when a top official walked out of a meeting with the Chinese company over its perceived failure to fix security holes in its products, sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.
- Trump advised to stay out of matter of Huawei CFO arrest: Wall Street Journal
- Flurry of Democrats expected to enter 2020 White House race in coming weeks
- Tax treaties create $4.2 trillion cash flow through Netherlands
- Statistics Netherlands published the data for the first time — based in part on information from the Dutch central bank — showing that the country had received 4.6 trillion euros ($5.2 trillion) in “foreign direct investment” in 2017.
- But only a fifth of that money actually stayed in the $836 billion Dutch economy, as the equivalent of $4.2 trillion was channeled away immediately through mailbox companies, corporate shell companies known as special purpose vehicles.
- Brexit vote will happen next month, before Jan. 21: May’s spokeswoman
- No Trump-Putin meeting while Russia holds Ukraine ships: Bolton
- South Korea stopped importing condensate from Iran before receiving sanctions waivers
- Japanese Refiners Will Resume Iran Crude Purchases Next Month
- Japanese refiners will start buying Iranian crude oil in January, but will only continue buying until March to make sure they don’t get on the bad side of Washington in case the 180-day sanction waivers are not extended
- Trump was at a meeting when hush payments were discussed
- Saudi Arabia Can Outwait The Khashoggi Crisis
- On 10 November 2018, Turkey shared with Western and Saudi officials the audio recording that proved Saudi Arabia was responsible for the murder Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi on October 2nd. Before this announcement, Turkish officials managed a steady leak campaign alluding to the recordings’ existence and generated large-scale anticipation, in order to keep the story alive and create international pressure against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for allegedly ordering the journalist’s killing. President Erdogan and the Crown Prince view one another as regional rivals over the former’s embrace of Islamist ideology and subsequent support for Qatar in the face of a Saudi-led blockage. Saudi Arabia views Turkish actions to shield Qatar and its tacit partnership with Iran in the Syrian war with suspicion; bin Salman himself referred to Turkey earlier this year as part of a “triangle of evil” in the region.
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- EIA report
- What are the headlines of today?
- IEA Says OPEC’s Unplanned Supply Losses Could Double Its Cut
- Unplanned supply losses from members Iran and Venezuela could effectively double the intended cutback of 800,000 barrels a day the cartel pledged last week, according to the International Energy Agency.
- Oil Prices Rise as IEA Forecasts Supply Deficit in 2019
- In its monthly report, the IEA left its 2019 forecast for global demand unchanged at 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), but now expects a deficit in supply to occur in the second quarter of next year. Back in November it had forecast a surplus for all of 2019.
- No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil
- There is some truth to both viewpoints. Yes, the headline is somewhat misleading and requires some context. But there continues to be a trend in the direction of energy independence for the U.S.
- Domestic Crude Production Has Surged
- Verdict: Remarkable Achievement, But False Headline
- Iran Loses Market Share In India As Its Oil Exports Slump In November
- Is This The New Swing Producer In The Middle East?
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is now OPEC’s third-biggest producer, having surpassed Iran whose output has plunged below 3 million bpd with the U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.
- IEA Says OPEC’s Unplanned Supply Losses Could Double Its Cut
- How is the Geopolitical stability in the world?
- A lot going on. Still the same big players involved of course. More unrest in the middle-east ti seems with Turkey chiming in as well.
- Additional OPEC news
- No
Intraday Technical Analysis
Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | |
12/06/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 12/3 — 12/7 | 12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | 12/12/2018 | 12/13/2018 | |
High | 53.28 | 54.2 | 54.537 | 52.78 | 52 | 52.827 | 53.242 |
Low | 50.055 | 50.57 | 50.055 | 50.5 | 50.67 | 50.91 | 50.32 |
Close | 51.694 | 52.21 | 52.21 | 50.871 | 51.925 | 51.17 | 52.821 |
Pip move | 322.5 | 363 | 448.2 | 228 | 172 | 191.7 | 292.2 |
PP | 51.676 | 52.327 | 52.267 | 51.384 | 51.662 | 51.636 | 52.128 |
R1 | 53.297 | 54.084 | 54.479 | 52.268 | 52.654 | 52.362 | 53.936 |
R2 | 54.901 | 55.957 | 56.749 | 53.664 | 53 | 53.553 | 55.05 |
S1 | 50.072 | 50.454 | 49.997 | 49.988 | 51 | 50.445 | 51.014 |
S2 | 48.451 | 48.697 | 47.785 | 49.104 | 50 | 49.719 | 49.206 |
TV | 351,292 | 376,998 | 1,436,979 | 213,946 | 165,562 | 207,997 | 211,265 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- The DPP raised by about 50 ticks
- Resistance and support levels have widened as well
- Plus we had the biggest intraday swing with 292 ticks
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have support at the 52.25 level and resistance at 54
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- We are currently over the 52.50 mark which brings us to the upper half of the 50 — 54 level
- On the 30M chart we can see that we are entering a squeeze right above the 52.50 level so it would be interesting to see which way it breaks when liquidity comes in during the London session
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- PA moved back into the KC and VWAP and MAs show that we are currently flat (squeeze)
- We found temporary support at the 52.50 level
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.4792 we are kinda flat on the ATR it’s not really decreasing or increasing
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- Since we had a big move up yesterday I expect PA to bring us down a bit until we find support possible at the 52.25 before we can start loading up and make another run up for the bulls.
- However, the bears might still take over. Don’t count them out yet. If we break the 52.25 we could expect a move down to 51.50 which could be plausible since a BO of this magnitude could need more of a running start before the pop. As always we will have to wait and see and trade the levels in conjunction with our setups.
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 2 trades
- Because I went on tilt yesterday I have to be extra careful today
- Only take a PlayBook setup
- Only trade what you see
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- Before London open we rejected the 52.30 level but the 30M chart shows that we just entered the lower VWAP SDs and we haven’t reached the outer 2.0 SD yet
- T1 loss 15 ticks
- We have long bodied candles forming meaning there’s something going on and I’m gonna stay out of it until a directional move comes
- It looks like there is indecision in the market because we are having short price swing moving between 52.45 and 52.60
- T2 win 3 ticks
- Spread has increased and thus a sign of low liquidity and an explanation of why PA is swinging all over
- And we rejected the 52.60 level again and spread is still wide
- 11:30 we have lift off
- We broke the range and shot up to 52.80
- A lesson to be learned here is to watch the spread before taking any trades
- After we had a big move up we quickly dropped back
- The spread is till 34/35 instead of the usual 29
- 13:45
- We just returned back to the 52.25 level
- Even if I had trades left to take I wouldn’t be trading since the market is inconsistent
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal with continuation
- I saw that we rejected the 52.30 level outside the LKC and into the VWAP 2.0 SD
- When we returned to the LKC and confirmed as support I took a long position on the next candle
- Being extra cautious I took a smaller position
- Entry
- 52.623
- Swing Reversal with continuation
- SL
- 52.464
- TP
- 52.749
- Trade Management
- I feel calm and am letting the trade run its course
- Got stopped out at a 15 tick loss
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- We formed a bullish candle at the bottom of the range at 52.30 level so expected a swing high from here on and put my SL below the wick of the rejection candle
- Entry
- 52.426
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- 52.299 below the lower wick of rejection candle
- TP
- 52.603 at previous swing highs
- Trade Management
- I felt calm during the trade but then the dumbest thing happened. Earlier I had turned on one-click trading and, while, handy when placing stops etc, also closes my position directly when I click on close. Which makes sense but before I would click on close and the order management window would pop up and I could add to position or of course close. I’ll see if I’ll leave that option on.
- Can’t take anymore trades
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- NOT TAKEN
- T4
- NOT TAKEN
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I got stopped out on the first trade and the second trade I accidentally closed the position by myself. Luckily in a profit.
Daily Report Card
- Only take 2 trades
- I did this. And besides this rule the market isn’t favorable for me to trade anyway
- Only take a PlayBook setup
- I did follow this rule
- Only trade what you see
- Same. The market showed me that it is inconsistent in its PA.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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