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12142018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading

Daily Report Card

12142018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading

12142018 Trade Plan — Low liq­uid­i­ty trading

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMon­dayTues­dayWednes­dayThurs­dayFri­day
12/10/201812/11/201812/12/201812/13/201812/14/2018
Beers night before1211 red wine2 red wines4
Hours sleep598.58.56.5
Sleep well?12132
Mela­tonin00000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?23232
Exer­cise yester(to)day22111
Grat­i­tude55455
Joy55455
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus21122
Cof­fees today1.5 cof­fee01 espres­sohalf cup in ear­ly morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
nonoyesno rice etc.yes
Water 2.2L bottles11222
Vit­a­minsnoyesyesyesyes

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I think over­all I feel healthy. My arm feels bet­ter so I’m gonna keep doing some exer­cis­es and see how that develops. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I didn’t sleep enough but I think I can take it today since I slept a good 8 hours for every­day for the past few days
    • I feel way less emo­tion­al about yesterday’s devel­op­ment. I think I should still take today off. I have a din­ner today so that will also make it eas­i­er on me.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • For the first time we crossed the Dai­ly VWAP mean after a long bear run
      • After the bear run we start­ed rang­ing between the 50.50 and 53 levels
      • We have still not bro­ken that range though so we should still be cau­tious to state that the bear run is over
      • On the 4H chart we can have a bet­ter look at that
    • The 30M chart shows us that we reject­ed the 50.50 lev­el again and soon after we made a move to the 53 lev­el and even made it to the 53.30 lev­el but failed to break it and then we retreat­ed to 52.50 level
      • On the 30M we can see that this r52.50 lev­el is just above the UKC and and VWAP mean so this could hold as support
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
        • All sen­ti­ments is 59% bullish
        • Last week 64% bullish
        • Last 3 days 66% bullish
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 59% bullish
        • Last week 65% bullish
        • Last 3 days 65% bullish
      • Last week and last 3 days increased by 1 point
  • EURUSD
    • Pre­vi­ous range
      • Low 1.13159
      • High 1.13867
    • Yesterday’s range
      • Low 1.13320
      • High 1.13934
      • Accord­ing to IG client sentiment
        • Mixed bias still even though 58.1% are still net-long on the pair
        • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 58.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 23 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.1388; price has moved 0.2% low­er since then. The num­ber of traders net-long is 4.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 10.1% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 12.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 8.7% low­er from last week.
  • Gold
    • Yesterday’s num­bers
      • Low 1242.28
      • High 1247.09
      • Close 1245.23
        • Accord­ing to investing.com today
          • Accord­ing to investing.com today
            • All sen­ti­ments is 69% bullish
            • Last week 68% bullish
            • Last 3 days 70% bullish
            • Gold sen­ti­ment has increased by 1 point all across the board. Prob­a­bly because of more glob­al tur­moil mak­ing investors put their mon­ey into gold
    • Today’s num­bers
      • Low 1240.26
      • High 1246.69
      • Close 1241.69
        • Accord­ing to investing.com today
          • Accord­ing to investing.com today
            • All sen­ti­ments is 69% bullish
            • Last week 69% bullish
            • Last 3 days 71% bullish
            • Gold sen­ti­ment has again increased by 1 point last week and last 3 days. Per­haps because of more glob­al tur­moil mak­ing investors put their mon­ey into gold
      • Accord­ing to IG
        • Gold Sen­ti­ment Gives a Strong Bear­ish Bias
          • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week.
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • Yemen’s war­ring par­ties agree to cease­fire in Hodei­dah and U.N. role
    • U.S. to counter Chi­na, Rus­sia influ­ence in Africa: Bolton
      • The Unit­ed States plans to counter the rapid­ly expand­ing Chi­nese and Russ­ian eco­nom­ic and polit­i­cal influ­ence in Africa, U.S. nation­al secu­ri­ty advis­er John Bolton said on Thurs­day, call­ing busi­ness prac­tices of the two nations “cor­rupt” and “preda­to­ry.”
    • May urges EU to help get Brex­it ‘over the line’
      • Britain’s weak­ened prime min­is­ter, There­sa May, appealed to fel­low EU lead­ers on Thurs­day for con­ces­sions to help her win sup­port in par­lia­ment next month for a deal that can smooth Britain’s exit from the Euro­pean Union.
    • Cap­tured Ukrain­ian navy cap­tains tell Rus­sia: we won’t testify
      • Rus­sia seized three Ukrain­ian navy ves­sels and their com­bined crew of 24 last month off the coast of Russ­ian-annexed Crimea and accused them of ille­gal­ly enter­ing Russ­ian waters.
    • Forex — U.S. Dol­lar Inch­es High­er After Job­less Claims
      • The U.S. dol­lar was high­er on Thurs­day, as the num­ber of peo­ple who filed for first-time unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits hit a two-and-a-half month low.
    • Huawei $2 bil­lion secu­ri­ty pledge fol­lowed walk­out by British offi­cial: sources
      • Huawei’s rela­tions with British author­i­ties hit a low last month when a top offi­cial walked out of a meet­ing with the Chi­nese com­pa­ny over its per­ceived fail­ure to fix secu­ri­ty holes in its prod­ucts, sources famil­iar with the talks told Reuters.
    • Trump advised to stay out of mat­ter of Huawei CFO arrest: Wall Street Journal
    • Flur­ry of Democ­rats expect­ed to enter 2020 White House race in com­ing weeks
    • Tax treaties cre­ate $4.2 tril­lion cash flow through Netherlands
      • Sta­tis­tics Nether­lands pub­lished the data for the first time — based in part on infor­ma­tion from the Dutch cen­tral bank — show­ing that the coun­try had received 4.6 tril­lion euros ($5.2 tril­lion) in “for­eign direct invest­ment” in 2017.
      • But only a fifth of that mon­ey actu­al­ly stayed in the $836 bil­lion Dutch econ­o­my, as the equiv­a­lent of $4.2 tril­lion was chan­neled away imme­di­ate­ly through mail­box com­pa­nies, cor­po­rate shell com­pa­nies known as spe­cial pur­pose vehicles.
    • Brex­it vote will hap­pen next month, before Jan. 21: May’s spokeswoman
    • No Trump-Putin meet­ing while Rus­sia holds Ukraine ships: Bolton
    • South Korea stopped import­ing con­den­sate from Iran before receiv­ing sanc­tions waivers
    • Japan­ese Refin­ers Will Resume Iran Crude Pur­chas­es Next Month
      • Japan­ese refin­ers will start buy­ing Iran­ian crude oil in Jan­u­ary, but will only con­tin­ue buy­ing until March to make sure they don’t get on the bad side of Wash­ing­ton in case the 180-day sanc­tion waivers are not extended
    • Trump was at a meet­ing when hush pay­ments were discussed
    • Sau­di Ara­bia Can Out­wait The Khashog­gi Crisis
      • On 10 Novem­ber 2018, Turkey shared with West­ern and Sau­di offi­cials the audio record­ing that proved Sau­di Ara­bia was respon­si­ble for the mur­der Wash­ing­ton Post colum­nist Jamal Khashog­gi on Octo­ber 2nd. Before this announce­ment, Turk­ish offi­cials man­aged a steady leak cam­paign allud­ing to the record­ings’ exis­tence and gen­er­at­ed large-scale antic­i­pa­tion, in order to keep the sto­ry alive and cre­ate inter­na­tion­al pres­sure against Sau­di Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for alleged­ly order­ing the journalist’s killing. Pres­i­dent Erdo­gan and the Crown Prince view one anoth­er as region­al rivals over the former’s embrace of Islamist ide­ol­o­gy and sub­se­quent sup­port for Qatar in the face of a Sau­di-led block­age. Sau­di Ara­bia views Turk­ish actions to shield Qatar and its tac­it part­ner­ship with Iran in the Syr­i­an war with sus­pi­cion; bin Salman him­self referred to Turkey ear­li­er this year as part of a “tri­an­gle of evil” in the region.

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
  • EIA report
  • What are the head­lines of today?
    • IEA Says OPEC’s Unplanned Sup­ply Loss­es Could Dou­ble Its Cut
      • Unplanned sup­ply loss­es from mem­bers Iran and Venezuela could effec­tive­ly dou­ble the intend­ed cut­back of 800,000 bar­rels a day the car­tel pledged last week, accord­ing to the Inter­na­tion­al Ener­gy Agency.
    • Oil Prices Rise as IEA Fore­casts Sup­ply Deficit in 2019
      • In its month­ly report, the IEA left its 2019 fore­cast for glob­al demand unchanged at 1.4 mil­lion bar­rels per day (bpd), but now expects a deficit in sup­ply to occur in the sec­ond quar­ter of next year. Back in Novem­ber it had fore­cast a sur­plus for all of 2019.
    • No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil
      • There is some truth to both view­points. Yes, the head­line is some­what mis­lead­ing and requires some con­text. But there con­tin­ues to be a trend in the direc­tion of ener­gy inde­pen­dence for the U.S.
      • Domes­tic Crude Pro­duc­tion Has Surged
      • Ver­dict: Remark­able Achieve­ment, But False Headline
    • Iran Los­es Mar­ket Share In India As Its Oil Exports Slump In November
    • Is This The New Swing Pro­duc­er In The Mid­dle East?
      • The Unit­ed Arab Emi­rates (UAE) is now OPEC’s third-biggest pro­duc­er, hav­ing sur­passed Iran whose out­put has plunged below 3 mil­lion bpd with the U.S. sanc­tions on Iran­ian oil.
  • How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world?
    • A lot going on. Still the same big play­ers involved of course. More unrest in the mid­dle-east ti seems with Turkey chim­ing in as well. 
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • No

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

Thurs­dayFri­dayWeekMon­dayTues­dayWednes­dayThurs­day
12/06/201812/07/201812/3 — 12/712/10/201812/11/201812/12/201812/13/2018
High53.2854.254.53752.785252.82753.242
Low50.05550.5750.05550.550.6750.9150.32
Close51.69452.2152.2150.87151.92551.1752.821
Pip move322.5363448.2228172191.7292.2
PP51.67652.32752.26751.38451.66251.63652.128
R153.29754.08454.47952.26852.65452.36253.936
R254.90155.95756.74953.6645353.55355.05
S150.07250.45449.99749.9885150.44551.014
S248.45148.69747.78549.1045049.71949.206
TV351,292376,9981,436,979213,946165,562207,997211,265
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • The DPP raised by about 50 ticks
    • Resis­tance and sup­port lev­els have widened as well
    • Plus we had the biggest intra­day swing with 292 ticks
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • We have sup­port at the 52.25 lev­el and resis­tance at 54
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • We are cur­rent­ly over the 52.50 mark which brings us to the upper half of the 50 — 54 level
    • On the 30M chart we can see that we are enter­ing a squeeze right above the 52.50 lev­el so it would be inter­est­ing to see which way it breaks when liq­uid­i­ty comes in dur­ing the Lon­don session
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • PA moved back into the KC and VWAP and MAs show that we are cur­rent­ly flat (squeeze)
    • We found tem­po­rary sup­port at the 52.50 level
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • 2.4792 we are kin­da flat on the ATR it’s not real­ly decreas­ing or increasing

Trade Plan

  • Since we had a big move up yes­ter­day I expect PA to bring us down a bit until we find sup­port pos­si­ble at the 52.25 before we can start load­ing up and make anoth­er run up for the bulls. 
  • How­ev­er, the bears might still take over. Don’t count them out yet. If we break the 52.25 we could expect a move down to 51.50 which could be plau­si­ble since a BO of this mag­ni­tude could need more of a run­ning start before the pop. As always we will have to wait and see and trade the lev­els in con­junc­tion with our setups. 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 2 trades
    • Because I went on tilt yes­ter­day I have to be extra care­ful today
  • Only take a Play­Book setup
  • Only trade what you see

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Before Lon­don open we reject­ed the 52.30 lev­el but the 30M chart shows that we just entered the low­er VWAP SDs and we haven’t reached the out­er 2.0 SD yet
    • T1 loss 15 ticks
    • We have long bod­ied can­dles form­ing mean­ing there’s some­thing going on and I’m gonna stay out of it until a direc­tion­al move comes
    • It looks like there is inde­ci­sion in the mar­ket because we are hav­ing short price swing mov­ing between 52.45 and 52.60
    • T2 win 3 ticks
    • Spread has increased and thus a sign of low liq­uid­i­ty and an expla­na­tion of why PA is swing­ing all over
    • And we reject­ed the 52.60 lev­el again and spread is still wide
    • 11:30 we have lift off
      • We broke the range and shot up to 52.80
    • A les­son to be learned here is to watch the spread before tak­ing any trades
    • After we had a big move up we quick­ly dropped back
    • The spread is till 34/35 instead of the usu­al 29
    • 13:45
      • We just returned back to the 52.25 level
    • Even if I had trades left to take I wouldn’t be trad­ing since the mar­ket is inconsistent

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal with continuation
        • I saw that we reject­ed the 52.30 lev­el out­side the LKC and into the VWAP 2.0 SD
        • When we returned to the LKC and con­firmed as sup­port I took a long posi­tion on the next candle
        • Being extra cau­tious I took a small­er position
        • Entry
          • 52.623
    • SL
      • 52.464
    • TP
      • 52.749
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I feel calm and am let­ting the trade run its course
      • Got stopped out at a 15 tick loss
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • We formed a bull­ish can­dle at the bot­tom of the range at 52.30 lev­el so expect­ed a swing high from here on and put my SL below the wick of the rejec­tion candle
        • Entry
          • 52.426
    • SL
      • 52.299 below the low­er wick of rejec­tion candle
    • TP
      • 52.603 at pre­vi­ous swing highs
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I felt calm dur­ing the trade but then the dumb­est thing hap­pened. Ear­li­er I had turned on one-click trad­ing and, while, handy when plac­ing stops etc, also clos­es my posi­tion direct­ly when I click on close. Which makes sense but before I would click on close and the order man­age­ment win­dow would pop up and I could add to posi­tion or of course close. I’ll see if I’ll leave that option on. 
      • Can’t take any­more trades
  • T3
    • NOT TAKEN
  • T4
    • NOT TAKEN

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I got stopped out on the first trade and the sec­ond trade I acci­den­tal­ly closed the posi­tion by myself. Luck­i­ly in a profit. 

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 2 trades
    • I did this. And besides this rule the mar­ket isn’t favor­able for me to trade anyway
  • Only take a Play­Book setup
    • I did fol­low this rule
  • Only trade what you see
    • Same. The mar­ket showed me that it is incon­sis­tent in its PA.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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