Bear Market Trader | Weekly Outlook on WTI crude oil market
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12162018 Weekly Big Picture

12162018 Weekly Big Picture

12162018 Week­ly Big Picture

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

The Big Picture

  • WTI
    • What hap­pened last week?
      • The mar­ket seems to be unim­pressed with the oil pro­duc­tion cuts made by OPEC+
        • How­ev­er there are oth­er fac­tors at play as well
          • Oil rig count decreased by 4 in the US
          • Libya biggest oil field Sharara (which pro­duces 300.000bpd) tak­en by militants
      • Last week we basi­cal­ly con­tin­ued the range how­ev­er con­sol­i­dat­ing between the 50.80 and 53 levels
    • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
      • The mar­ket seems to think that more needs to hap­pen before it’s con­vinced that the glut is over. Hence the rang­ing for the last 1.5 week
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?
        • Retail sen­ti­ment accord­ing to IG has been very bullish
      • What does state?
        • What does state?
          • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
            • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
            • Last week 63% bullish
            • Last 3 days 61% bullish
          • This week’s
            • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
            • Last week 66% bullish
            • Last 3 days 65% bullish
          • Accord­ing to we increased in bull­ish sen­ti­ment, 2 points in all sen­ti­ment, 3 points last week and 4 points in the last 3 days
            • Over­all bull­ish sen­ti­ment seems to be increas­ing but keep in mind that this is on the retail level
    • What was in the reports?
      • The API report­ed a draw of ‑10.180M
      • The EIA report­ed a fore­cast of ‑2.990M but the ‘actu­al’ num­ber was ‑1.208M
        • Both can be con­sid­ered bear­ish since the draw was well less than expected
    • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?
      • I just real­ized that the plat­form I was using to col­lect the tick vol­ume data and the plat­form I use for the actu­al trad­ing have a gap in prices. There­fore these num­bers under­neath, besides the Fri­day and last week data are inac­cu­rate. I did change the tick vol­ume to the right num­bers used by my trad­ing platform.
12/3 — 12/712/10/201812/11/201812/12/201812/13/201812/14/20812/10 — 12/14
Pip move448.2228172191.7292.2208.7291.9
  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
    • Piv­ot lev­els and Tick Volume
      • Tick vol­ume has been some­what con­sis­tent although we have declined com­pared to pri­or week. This could mean that we are more in uni­son or that there are less mar­ket par­tic­i­pants. I believe it’s the lat­ter since we are still try­ing to decide where to go from here.
      • Piv­ot lev­els show that we inched low­er when com­pared to last week
        • Also we had a small­er swing com­pared to pri­or week, we dropped from 448 to 292 ticks intraweek
        • We have entered a squeeze on the high­er time frame as well
          • We can see that Friday’s DPP and the WPP are very near to each oth­er that’s the dif­fer­ence is almost insignificant
    • Dai­ly chart
      • We made an attempt on Thurs­day to break the Dai­ly VWAP mean but final­ly dropped again Friday
      • How­ev­er we are inch­ing high­er a bit and consolidating
      • Key lev­els are
        • Resis­tance
          • 55 lev­el
        • Sup­port
          • 49.50
    • 4H chart
      • We are still ‘hug­ging the 50MA and are basi­cal­ly flat
      • Fur­ther­more we are still ‘miles’ away from cross­ing the 200MA
      • Resis­tance
        • 52.75
        • 54
      • Sup­port
        • 50.80
        • 49.50
    • 30M chart
      • Here we can see that we are below the DPP 51.868 and WPP 51.816
        • We are about 40 ticks below these levels
      • We are about 90 ticks above the DS1 50.590 level
      • Sup­port areas
        • 51.25
    • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
cur­rent price51.449
  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
    • We haven’t bro­ken the range yet
  • Is there an OPEC meeting?
    • There is no OPEC meet­ing planned. The next offi­cial meet­ing is in April.
  • Ener­gy sector
    • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing?
      • US
        • 1 month
          • -8.25%
        • 3 months
          • -18.55%
        • YTD
          • -16.21%
        • The US sec­tor dropped even fur­ther and would need the mar­ket to first jump high­er before the whole sec­tor follows
          • We dropped YTD 3.5 points and 3 month 5 points. How­ev­er in the last month we had a bit of a breather and went from ‑10.45% to ‑8.25% so there might be change coming
      • The Amer­i­c­as
        • 1 month
          • -8.03%
        • 3 months
          • -17.35%
        • YTD
          • -16.91%
        • In the last month the Amer­i­c­as ener­gy sec­tor has relaxed a bit as well and went from ‑10.19% to ‑8.03%
          • 3 months dropped 3.5 points and YTD dropped 3 more points
      • Europe
        • 1 month
          • -3.88%
        • 3 months
          • -9.70%
        • YTD
          • -5.24%
        • In the last month we went from ‑6.85% to ‑3.88% (increase of 3 points) so some relief is there as well
          • 3 months we dropped a bit more about 4.5 points and YTD we dropped less than 2%
      • Asia
        • 1 month
          • -4.61%
        • 3 months
          • -14.07%
        • YTD
          • -10.01%
        • Fol­low­ing suit is the Asian sec­tor with a 2 point relief last 1 month
          • 3 months dropped 4 points more and YTD dropped 1.5 points
      • Mid­dle East / Africa
        • 1 month
          • -7.09%
        • 3 months
          • -5.87%
        • YTD
          • -5.41%
        • Relief of almost 4.5 points in the last month
          • 3 months almost stayed the same with a drop of only 0.5 points 
          • YTD had some relief as well and we gained almost 2 points
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • Low 1.12712
      • High 1.14426
      • Close 1.13027
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • Accord­ing to IG
        • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 58.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 23 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.1388; price has moved 0.2% low­er since then. The num­ber of traders net-long is 4.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 10.1% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 12.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 8.7% low­er from last week.
        • MIXED BIAS
          • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • Low 1233.46
      • High 1250.82
      • Close 1238.58
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • Accord­ing to IG
        • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week.
        • BEARISH BIAS
          • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?
      • Gold Falls Again as Dol­lar Hits 19-Month Highs on Chi­na Scare
        • — It had to be one safe-haven or the oth­er and the dol­lar tri­umphed at the expense of gold on Fri­day as signs of slow­ing growth in Chi­na sparked risk aver­sion across the globe.
      • Cli­mate change: COP24 deal to bring Paris pact to life
        • Nego­tia­tors in Poland have final­ly secured agree­ment on a range of mea­sures that will make the Paris cli­mate pact oper­a­tional in 2020.
      • OPEC has shown it can reach deal despite splits: Iran oil minister
      • Chi­na Refiner­ies Process Less Oil As Fuel Prices Decline
        • Chi­nese refin­ery runs stood at 12.28 mil­lion bpd last month, high­er than the same time last year but low­er than the pre­vi­ous month and the month before, when runs reached an all-time high of 12.49 mil­lion bpd, Reuters reports, cit­ing Chi­nese sta­tis­tics data.
      • Chi­nese-Venezue­lan Joint Ven­ture Dou­bles Oil Production
        • A joint ven­ture between trou­bled Venezue­lan state oil com­pa­ny PDVSA and China’s CNPC in the South Amer­i­can coun­try has dou­bled its oil pro­duc­tion in the past sev­en months, Reuters report­ed today, quot­ing a unit of PDVSA, CVP.
        • The joint ven­ture, Sinoven­sa, accounts for about a tenth of Venezuela’s oil pro­duc­tion, which has been falling inex­orably over the past few years under the triple bur­den of the oil price col­lapse, years of mis­man­age­ment and cor­rup­tion, and U.S. sanctions.
      • Rus­sia Oil Exports Down 36.65M Bar­rels In First 10 Months
      • Stocks — U.S. Futures Fall Amid Fears of Slow­ing Glob­al Growth
        • in Chi­na post­ed their weak­est growth in 15 years, increas­ing wor­ry about the world’s sec­ond largest econ­o­my as the coun­try is impact­ed by trade dis­putes with the U.S. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan sur­vey released overnight showed com­pa­nies expect con­di­tions to wors­en in the next three months.
      • Chi­na to halt added tar­iffs on U.S.-made cars in eas­ing of trade tensions
      • U.S. sets new March 2 date for Chi­na tar­iff increas­es amid talks
      • Chi­na should free Cana­di­ans held after Huawei arrest, U.S.‘s Pom­peo says
      • Mex­i­co tar­gets 50 per­cent jump in oil out­put under ‘Pemex rescue’
      • Chi­na’s Xi to address key reform anniver­sary on Tues­day: Xinhua
        • Xi will speak at a con­fer­ence to be held at the Great Hall of the Peo­ple from 10 a.m. (0200 GMT) on Tues­day, Xin­hua said on Sun­day. The report was in line with what diplo­mat­ic sources had pre­vi­ous­ly told Reuters.
      • U.S.-led coali­tion destroys Syr­i­an mosque used as ISIS com­mand center
      • Ukraine’s Pres­i­dent names leader of new church in split from Russia
        • KIEV (Reuters) — Ukraine chose the head of a new nation­al Ortho­dox church on Sat­ur­day, mark­ing an his­toric split from Rus­sia which its lead­ers see as vital to the coun­try’s secu­ri­ty and independence.
      • Thou­sands of French ‘yel­low vests’ protest for fifth Saturday
        • The ‘yel­low vest’ move­ment start­ed in mid-Novem­ber with protests at junc­tions and round­abouts against fuel tax increas­es, but quick­ly became a wider mobil­i­sa­tion against Macron’s eco­nom­ic policies.
      • At least 20 Afghan civil­ians killed in airstrike: officials
      • Zam­bia denies White House claim Chi­na tak­ing over pow­er utility
        • LUSAKA (Reuters) — Zam­bia has denied claims by a White House offi­cial that Chi­na is about to take over its state pow­er util­i­ty to recov­er $6–10 bil­lion debt, not­ing the util­i­ty was nev­er pro­vid­ed as col­lat­er­al and its debt to Bei­jing was only $3.1 billion.
      • Mal­dives police freeze bank accounts of ex-pres­i­dent Yameen as part of probe
        • MALE (Reuters) — Police in the Mal­dives said they have frozen the bank accounts of for­mer pres­i­dent Abdul­la Yameen as they inves­ti­gate alle­ga­tions by state bod­ies that he con­duct­ed “illic­it” deals, some involv­ing Chi­nese infra­struc­ture projects, whilst leader.
      • Europe must fight illib­er­al forces, Draghi warns
      • Aus­tralia rec­og­nizes West Jerusalem as Israel’s cap­i­tal but embassy not mov­ing yet
      • Chi­na pledges to help Afghanistan and Pak­istan bridge divisions
        • KABUL (Reuters) — Chi­na pledged to help Afghanistan and Pak­istan over­come long­stand­ing sus­pi­cions, as offi­cials from the three nations met on Sat­ur­day in the lat­est round of diplo­ma­cy aimed at open­ing talks with the Tal­iban to end the Afghan war.
      • Qatar says Gulf Arab bloc needs reform to give it teeth
        • DOHA (Reuters) — Qatar said on Sat­ur­day it remained com­mit­ted to the Gulf Coop­er­a­tion Coun­cil (GCC) but the bloc need­ed to enforce its own rules bet­ter, sig­nal­ing a reformed alliance could help end a row between Doha and some of its neighbors.
      • Turkey will keep attack­ing PKK in Iraq, for­eign min­istry says
        • ISTANBUL (Reuters) — Turkey will keep strik­ing Kur­dish PKK fight­ers in north­ern Iraq, the for­eign min­istry said on Sat­ur­day, a day after Bagh­dad for­mal­ly com­plained that repeat­ed Turk­ish air strikes vio­lat­ed its sov­er­eign­ty and endan­gered civilians.
      • One of Khashog­gi killers said ‘I know how to cut’ on audio, Erdo­gan says
      • Fight­ing breaks out in Yemen’s Hodei­dah after truce deal
        • The main port used to feed Yemen’s 30 mil­lion peo­ple is held by the Iran-aligned Houthi move­ment that also con­trols the cap­i­tal Sanaa and has been bat­tling against a Sau­di-led Arab coali­tion seek­ing to restore a gov­ern­ment oust­ed in 2014.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 



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Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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