
16 Dec 12162018 Weekly Big Picture
12162018 Weekly Big Picture
This is part of my weekly preparation of my trading week to give me an idea on where I think the market stands.
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
The Big Picture
- WTI
- What happened last week?
- The market seems to be unimpressed with the oil production cuts made by OPEC+
- However there are other factors at play as well
- Oil rig count decreased by 4 in the US
- Libya biggest oil field Sharara (which produces 300.000bpd) taken by militants
- However there are other factors at play as well
- Last week we basically continued the range however consolidating between the 50.80 and 53 levels
- The market seems to be unimpressed with the oil production cuts made by OPEC+
- What is the supply and demand balance?
- The market seems to think that more needs to happen before it’s convinced that the glut is over. Hence the ranging for the last 1.5 week
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
- Retail sentiment according to IG has been very bullish
- What does investing.com state?
- What does investing.com state?
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 61% bullish
- This week’s
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 66% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- According to investing.com we increased in bullish sentiment, 2 points in all sentiment, 3 points last week and 4 points in the last 3 days
- Overall bullish sentiment seems to be increasing but keep in mind that this is on the retail level
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- What does investing.com state?
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
- What was in the reports?
- The API reported a draw of ‑10.180M
- The EIA reported a forecast of ‑2.990M but the ‘actual’ number was ‑1.208M
- Both can be considered bearish since the draw was well less than expected
- What is the Tick Volume showing?
- I just realized that the platform I was using to collect the tick volume data and the platform I use for the actual trading have a gap in prices. Therefore these numbers underneath, besides the Friday and last week data are inaccurate. I did change the tick volume to the right numbers used by my trading platform.
- What happened last week?
Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | |
12/3 — 12/7 | 12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | 12/12/2018 | 12/13/2018 | 12/14/208 | 12/10 — 12/14 | |
High | 54.537 | 52.78 | 52 | 52.827 | 53.242 | 53.146 | 53.455 |
Low | 50.055 | 50.5 | 50.67 | 50.91 | 50.32 | 51.059 | 50.536 |
Close | 52.21 | 50.871 | 51.925 | 51.17 | 52.821 | 51.398 | 51.449 |
Pip move | 448.2 | 228 | 172 | 191.7 | 292.2 | 208.7 | 291.9 |
PP | 52.267 | 51.384 | 51.662 | 51.636 | 52.128 | 51.868 | 51.813 |
R1 | 54.479 | 52.268 | 52.654 | 52.362 | 53.936 | 52.677 | 53.09 |
R2 | 56.749 | 53.664 | 53 | 53.553 | 55.05 | 53.955 | 54.732 |
S1 | 49.997 | 49.988 | 51 | 50.445 | 51.014 | 50.59 | 50.171 |
S2 | 47.785 | 49.104 | 50 | 49.719 | 49.206 | 49.781 | 48.894 |
TV | 407,575 | 68,804 | 55,460 | 56,804 | 66,441 | 60,821 | 308,330 |
- What are the most important technical levels in the market?
- Pivot levels and Tick Volume
- Tick volume has been somewhat consistent although we have declined compared to prior week. This could mean that we are more in unison or that there are less market participants. I believe it’s the latter since we are still trying to decide where to go from here.
- Pivot levels show that we inched lower when compared to last week
- Also we had a smaller swing compared to prior week, we dropped from 448 to 292 ticks intraweek
- We have entered a squeeze on the higher time frame as well
- We can see that Friday’s DPP and the WPP are very near to each other that’s the difference is almost insignificant
- Daily chart
- We made an attempt on Thursday to break the Daily VWAP mean but finally dropped again Friday
- However we are inching higher a bit and consolidating
- Key levels are
- Resistance
- 55 level
- Support
- 49.50
- Resistance
- 4H chart
- We are still ‘hugging the 50MA and are basically flat
- Furthermore we are still ‘miles’ away from crossing the 200MA
- Resistance
- 52.75
- 54
- Support
- 50.80
- 49.50
- 30M chart
- Here we can see that we are below the DPP 51.868 and WPP 51.816
- We are about 40 ticks below these levels
- We are about 90 ticks above the DS1 50.590 level
- Support areas
- 51.25
- Here we can see that we are below the DPP 51.868 and WPP 51.816
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
- Pivot levels and Tick Volume
current price | 51.449 | ||||||
Price | Distance | Price | Distance | ||||
R1 | WPP | 51.813 | 36 | S1 | 30M | 51.25 | -20 |
R2 | DPP | 51.868 | 42 | S2 | 4H | 50.8 | -65 |
R3 | 30M | 52.42 | 97 | S3 | DS1 | 50.59 | -86 |
R4 | DR1 | 52.677 | 123 | S4 | D | 49.5 | -195 |
R5 | D | 52.75 | 130 | S5 | W | 47.6 | -385 |
R6 | WR1 | 53.09 | 164 | S6 | W | 45.25 | -620 |
- Is the market trending up or down?
- We haven’t broken the range yet
- Is there an OPEC meeting?
- There is no OPEC meeting planned. The next official meeting is in April.
- Energy sector
- How is the sector as a whole doing?
- US
- 1 month
- -8.25%
- 3 months
- -18.55%
- YTD
- -16.21%
- The US sector dropped even further and would need the market to first jump higher before the whole sector follows
- We dropped YTD 3.5 points and 3 month 5 points. However in the last month we had a bit of a breather and went from ‑10.45% to ‑8.25% so there might be change coming
- 1 month
- The Americas
- 1 month
- -8.03%
- 3 months
- -17.35%
- YTD
- -16.91%
- In the last month the Americas energy sector has relaxed a bit as well and went from ‑10.19% to ‑8.03%
- 3 months dropped 3.5 points and YTD dropped 3 more points
- 1 month
- Europe
- 1 month
- -3.88%
- 3 months
- -9.70%
- YTD
- -5.24%
- In the last month we went from ‑6.85% to ‑3.88% (increase of 3 points) so some relief is there as well
- 3 months we dropped a bit more about 4.5 points and YTD we dropped less than 2%
- 1 month
- Asia
- 1 month
- -4.61%
- 3 months
- -14.07%
- YTD
- -10.01%
- Following suit is the Asian sector with a 2 point relief last 1 month
- 3 months dropped 4 points more and YTD dropped 1.5 points
- 1 month
- Middle East / Africa
- 1 month
- -7.09%
- 3 months
- -5.87%
- YTD
- -5.41%
- Relief of almost 4.5 points in the last month
- 3 months almost stayed the same with a drop of only 0.5 points
- YTD had some relief as well and we gained almost 2 points
- 1 month
- US
- How is the sector as a whole doing?
- EURUSD
- What is last week’s price range?
- Low 1.12712
- High 1.14426
- Close 1.13027
- What is the market sentiment?
- According to IG
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 58.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 23 when EURUSD traded near 1.1388; price has moved 0.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% higher than yesterday and 10.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week.
- MIXED BIAS
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- According to IG
- What is last week’s price range?
- Gold
- What is last week’s price range?
- Low 1233.46
- High 1250.82
- Close 1238.58
- What is the market sentiment?
- According to IG
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.7% higher than yesterday and 5.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week.
- BEARISH BIAS
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- According to IG
- What is last week’s price range?
- Geopolitics
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
- Gold Falls Again as Dollar Hits 19-Month Highs on China Scare
- Investing.com — It had to be one safe-haven or the other and the dollar triumphed at the expense of gold on Friday as signs of slowing growth in China sparked risk aversion across the globe.
- Climate change: COP24 deal to bring Paris pact to life
- Negotiators in Poland have finally secured agreement on a range of measures that will make the Paris climate pact operational in 2020.
- OPEC has shown it can reach deal despite splits: Iran oil minister
- China Refineries Process Less Oil As Fuel Prices Decline
- Chinese refinery runs stood at 12.28 million bpd last month, higher than the same time last year but lower than the previous month and the month before, when runs reached an all-time high of 12.49 million bpd, Reuters reports, citing Chinese statistics data.
- Chinese-Venezuelan Joint Venture Doubles Oil Production
- A joint venture between troubled Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA and China’s CNPC in the South American country has doubled its oil production in the past seven months, Reuters reported today, quoting a unit of PDVSA, CVP.
- The joint venture, Sinovensa, accounts for about a tenth of Venezuela’s oil production, which has been falling inexorably over the past few years under the triple burden of the oil price collapse, years of mismanagement and corruption, and U.S. sanctions.
- Russia Oil Exports Down 36.65M Barrels In First 10 Months
- Stocks — U.S. Futures Fall Amid Fears of Slowing Global Growth
- in China posted their weakest growth in 15 years, increasing worry about the world’s second largest economy as the country is impacted by trade disputes with the U.S. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey released overnight showed companies expect conditions to worsen in the next three months.
- China to halt added tariffs on U.S.-made cars in easing of trade tensions
- U.S. sets new March 2 date for China tariff increases amid talks
- China should free Canadians held after Huawei arrest, U.S.‘s Pompeo says
- Mexico targets 50 percent jump in oil output under ‘Pemex rescue’
- China’s Xi to address key reform anniversary on Tuesday: Xinhua
- Xi will speak at a conference to be held at the Great Hall of the People from 10 a.m. (0200 GMT) on Tuesday, Xinhua said on Sunday. The report was in line with what diplomatic sources had previously told Reuters.
- U.S.-led coalition destroys Syrian mosque used as ISIS command center
- Ukraine’s President names leader of new church in split from Russia
- KIEV (Reuters) — Ukraine chose the head of a new national Orthodox church on Saturday, marking an historic split from Russia which its leaders see as vital to the country’s security and independence.
- Thousands of French ‘yellow vests’ protest for fifth Saturday
- The ‘yellow vest’ movement started in mid-November with protests at junctions and roundabouts against fuel tax increases, but quickly became a wider mobilisation against Macron’s economic policies.
- At least 20 Afghan civilians killed in airstrike: officials
- Zambia denies White House claim China taking over power utility
- LUSAKA (Reuters) — Zambia has denied claims by a White House official that China is about to take over its state power utility to recover $6–10 billion debt, noting the utility was never provided as collateral and its debt to Beijing was only $3.1 billion.
- Maldives police freeze bank accounts of ex-president Yameen as part of probe
- MALE (Reuters) — Police in the Maldives said they have frozen the bank accounts of former president Abdulla Yameen as they investigate allegations by state bodies that he conducted “illicit” deals, some involving Chinese infrastructure projects, whilst leader.
- Europe must fight illiberal forces, Draghi warns
- Australia recognizes West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital but embassy not moving yet
- China pledges to help Afghanistan and Pakistan bridge divisions
- KABUL (Reuters) — China pledged to help Afghanistan and Pakistan overcome longstanding suspicions, as officials from the three nations met on Saturday in the latest round of diplomacy aimed at opening talks with the Taliban to end the Afghan war.
- Qatar says Gulf Arab bloc needs reform to give it teeth
- DOHA (Reuters) — Qatar said on Saturday it remained committed to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) but the bloc needed to enforce its own rules better, signaling a reformed alliance could help end a row between Doha and some of its neighbors.
- Turkey will keep attacking PKK in Iraq, foreign ministry says
- ISTANBUL (Reuters) — Turkey will keep striking Kurdish PKK fighters in northern Iraq, the foreign ministry said on Saturday, a day after Baghdad formally complained that repeated Turkish air strikes violated its sovereignty and endangered civilians.
- One of Khashoggi killers said ‘I know how to cut’ on audio, Erdogan says
- Fighting breaks out in Yemen’s Hodeidah after truce deal
- The main port used to feed Yemen’s 30 million people is held by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement that also controls the capital Sanaa and has been battling against a Saudi-led Arab coalition seeking to restore a government ousted in 2014.
- Gold Falls Again as Dollar Hits 19-Month Highs on China Scare
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
Sources:
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
- https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
- https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
- https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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