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12182018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading after big drop

Daily Report Card

12182018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading after big drop

12182018 Trade Plan — Low liq­uid­i­ty trad­ing after big drop

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFri­daySat­ur­daySun­dayMon­dayTues­day
Beers night before48335
Hours sleep6.5777.56+1
Sleep well?23322
Neg­a­tive thoughts?22112
Exer­cise yester(to)day11111
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 cof­feehalf a cup of coffee1 espres­so spread over 2 hours0
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesnonoyesno
Water 2.2L bottles21122
Time bed yesterday01:0003:0000:3000:3003:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I feel good most of the time. Just tired today because I stayed out late because of a meet­ing. Also had some drinks so def­i­nite­ly not on my sharpest today.
  • How do you feel?
    • Feel good. I was think­ing to get some cof­fee but I am just going to ‘tough’ it out for the day and see what happens. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day we had a big down day and we dropped to the 49.30 level
    • There was a Tri­an­gle form­ing on the 4H chart and we BD from that and even broke the 49.80 lev­el so the bears are hav­ing fun
    • The last few trad­ing days we were mov­ing away from the Dai­ly 2.0 SD and got close to the 1.0 SD but now we have dropped back into the 1.5 SD so let’s see if this lev­el can hold or that we drop further.
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 61% bullish
        • Last week 68% bullish
        • Last 3 days 68% bullish
        • Although sen­ti­ment has increased in bull­ish­ness I believe the bears will have their day in the sun first before the bulls can take over
    • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 58.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 23 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.1388; price has moved 0.2% low­er since then. The num­ber of traders net-long is 4.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 10.1% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 12.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 8.7% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Geopol­i­tics

    Intra­day Fundamentals

    • API report
      • For me this is com­ing out tomor­row morning
    • EIA report
      • And this is com­ing out Thurs­day ear­ly morning
    • What are the head­lines of today?
      • Shale Under Pres­sure As Oil Falls Below $50
        • The OPEC+ cuts still are not doing very much to boost oil prices, dash­ing hopes for many U.S. shale pro­duc­ers. With com­pa­nies in the process of for­mu­lat­ing their bud­gets for 2019, the prospect of $50 oil stick­ing around rais­es ques­tions about the heady pro­duc­tion fig­ures expect­ed from the shale patch.
      • Asia shares sink as glob­al growth wor­ries deepen
        • Asian share mar­kets sank on Tues­day as height­ened wor­ries about a slow­ing glob­al econ­o­my sent Wall Street stocks skid­ding to their low­est lev­els in more than a year.
      • Wall Street sell-off keeps Euro­pean shares near two-year lows
        • MILAN (Reuters) — A heavy sell-off on Wall Street sent Euro­pean shares tum­bling on Tues­day with oil stocks lead­ing the decline as crude prices extend­ed their loss­es and Roy­al Dutch Shell (AS:RDSa) tum­bled on reports of a pos­si­ble acquisition.
      • Gold Prices Slip as Focus Shifts to Fed
      • Sau­di Oil Min­is­ter Dis­cuss­es Fur­ther Coop­er­a­tion With World’s Largest Refiner
        • Sau­di Arabia’s Ener­gy Min­is­ter Khalid al-Fal­ih dis­cussed on Sun­day oppor­tu­ni­ties for joint invest­ments and coop­er­a­tion in petro­chem­i­cal and refin­ing projects with Mukesh Ambani, the chair­man of India’s Reliance Industries—the com­pa­ny own­ing the world’s largest refin­ing hub.
      • Euro ris­es as dol­lar wilts before expect­ed Fed caution
      • Oil Prices Mixed as U.S. Oil Pro­duc­tion Rises
        • — Oil prices were mixed on Tues­day morn­ing in Asia, with WTI crude oil slip­ping below the $50 mark for the first time in a year on a surge of pro­duc­tion in the U.S. but Brent oil inch­ing higher.
      • Iran Claims Its Oil Rev­enues Surged Despite Sanctions
        • Iran’s rev­enues from crude oil and oil prod­ucts surged by 55 per­cent between March and Octo­ber, the first sev­en months of the Iran­ian year, com­pared to the same peri­od of the pre­vi­ous year, the Islam­ic Repub­lic News Agency (IRNA) report­ed on Mon­day, quot­ing data from the Cen­tral Bank of Iran. 
      • Growth Fears Push Gold to Largest Gain in 2 Weeks Ahead of Fed
        • — Fears of a glob­al reces­sion are giv­ing gold an ear­ly boost ahead of this week’s Fed deci­sion on rate hikes, with the mar­ket brac­ing for a ral­ly should the cen­tral bank stall on an increase or even resort to dovish lan­guage after approv­ing one.
    • How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world?
      • It seems that the most con­cern is about the growth of world economics
    • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
      • None at this moment

    Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

    12/10/201812/11/201812/12/201812/13/201812/14/20812/10 — 12/1412/17/2018
    Pip move228172191.7292.2208.7291.9280.9
    • What can we tell from the PP levels?
      • Yes­ter­day we had about the same biggest swing as the whole of last week with 280 ticks
        • Most of this went into the down­side where we broke to new lows
    • Where are the high­er time frame S/R lev­els? What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
      • The Dai­ly shows a sup­port lev­el at 47.50 and then 42.90
      • On the resis­tance side we have the 4H lev­el of 49.80
    • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Dur­ing the AS we found tem­po­rary sup­port at the 49 lev­el which is also the WS2 48.894 level
        • We bounced off this lev­el and failed to make new highs
    • ATR
      • What is the ATR on the daily?
        • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • 2.4327
          • It seems we are still decreas­ing in ATR which is a good sign cause that might mean that we are set­tling on a direction 

    Trade Plan

    • I’m going to wait and see how PA reacts to the WS2 48.894 or resis­tance at 49.80 level
    • It is like­ly that we will con­tin­ue to inch low­er a bit before return­ing. I think we are in the exhaus­tion leg part on the 4H chart so we might be look­ing to find sup­port after a big drop and then reverse. 

    My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

    • Only take 4 trades
    • Only take play­book trades
    • Be extra cau­tious today because you are not as sharp and the mar­ket seems to be in a bit of a state of limbo

    Read­ing the Tape

    • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
      • After the open we inhed high­er a bit and the at 10:55 we dropped and con­tin­ued the drop at 11:00 and are now test­ing the 48.90 level
      • We dropped fur­ther break­ing the WS2 48.894 and halt­ed at the DS1 48.481 for tem­po­rary support
      • When we dropped the spread increased like crazy. When nor­mal­ly at 28/29 I saw it increase to 100 and now it’s back to 34/35 which means the liq­uid­i­ty today is low
      • I am wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion on the DS1 48.481 to hold up as sup­port or a poten­tial break
      • The 5M VWAP has entered the tight­en­ing phase again and the 30M shows we reject­ed the 2.0 SD fair­ly big and then PA hov­ered between the WS2 and DS1 level
      • The 5M shows that we returned to the LKC after cross­ing the VWAP mean so we might be look­ing to get back into the KC
      • NEWS
        • Euro­pean shares plunge after Wall Street’s ‘San­ta Crash’
          • MILAN (Reuters) — Euro­pean shares tum­bled on Tues­day after a sell-off on Wall Street, with oil stocks lead­ing the drop as crude prices extend­ed their loss­es and Roy­al Dutch Shell (AS:RDSa) fell after reports of a pos­si­ble acquisition.
          • The pan-Euro­pean STOXX 600 (STOXX) index was down 0.6 per­cent by 0857 GMT, get­ting clos­er to the two-year lows hit last week, as con­cern mount­ed over slow­ing eco­nom­ic growth.
          • A speech by Chi­nese Pres­i­dent Xi Jin­ping that investors had hoped could lift morale had no impact. Atten­tion shift­ed to the Fed­er­al Reserve, which is almost cer­tain to raise inter­est rates at the end of its two-day meet­ing on Wednesday.
          • Traders will be watch­ing the Fed’s pro­jec­tions for future rate increas­es, which could boost equities.
      • PA retraced back to 48.90 lev­el and we are cur­rent­ly still over the 5M VWAP mean
      • The spread is still high at 34 and since it’s almost 14:30 I don’t think I’ll be tak­ing any trades at this point. So I’m going to wrap this up for today. 

    Trade Man­age­ment

    Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

    • T1
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Swing Rever­sal
          • Took a long posi­tion right at the open after I saw a doji can­dle at the bot­tom of the range at the 49.10 lev­el (which we reject­ed ear­li­er dur­ing the AS
          • Also the rejec­tion point coin­cid­ed with the 30M 2.0 SD touch
          • I took a small posi­tion since it was at the open and I had nev­er done that
          • Entry
            • 49.189
      • SL
        • 49.060
          • Just under the wick
      • TP
        • 49.473
          • At the top of the range
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Cov­ered when we hit the VWAP mean
    • T2
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Swing Rever­sal with continuation
          • After we reject­ed the 48.30 lev­el we inched high­er and then we made a first pull­back that closed above the 5MA so expect­ed anoth­er move up to at least the VWAP mean
          • How­ev­er, since the spread is high­er than usu­al and we had already inched high­er I took the small­est posi­tion I could take to be extra cautious
          • Entry
            • 48.633
      • SL
        • Under the pull­back at 48.50
      • TP
        • 48.938
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • I added to my posi­tion when I saw it go in my favor
    • T3
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Same as T2
          • Entry
            • 48.727
      • SL
        • Under the pull­back at 48.50
      • TP
        • 48.945
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • I cov­ered both posi­tions T2 and T3 when we reached the 5M VWAP mean at a prof­it of 
          • T2 — 15 ticks
          • T3 — 4 ticks
    • T4
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Swing Rever­sal / Swing Rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion / Squeeze
      • SL
        • TP
          • Trade Man­age­ment

          Trade Review

          • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?

          Dai­ly Report Card

          • Only take 4 trades
            • I took 3 trades
          • Only take play­book trades
            • I took a swing rever­sal and con­tin­u­a­tion trade
          • Be extra cau­tious today because you are not as sharp and the mar­ket seems to be in a bit of a state of limbo
            • I low­ered my size even more since the mar­ket seemed to behave dif­fer­ent than usu­al with the spreads being wider I feared there would be no pulling through on the move. Over­all I am hap­py with my per­for­mance today con­sid­er­ing that I was also not the sharpest today.
            • Anoth­er thing I will focus on is writ­ing out my roadmap to becom­ing a CPT (con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trad­er) so that I have a clear­er under­stand­ing of the path before me.
            • I am up 25 ticks for the day


          Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

          oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trad­ing, day­trad­ing, com­modi­ties, play­book, one good trade, 


          Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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