
18 Dec 12182018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading after big drop
12182018 Trade Plan — Low liquidity trading after big drop
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
12/14/2018 | 12/15/2018 | 12/16/2018 | 12/17/2018 | 12/18/2018 | |
Beers night before | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Hours sleep | 6.5 | 7 | 7 | 7.5 | 6+1 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 coffee | half a cup of coffee | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 |
Intermittent fasting | yes | no | no | yes | no |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | yes | no | no | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 01:00 | 03:00 | 00:30 | 00:30 | 03:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I feel good most of the time. Just tired today because I stayed out late because of a meeting. Also had some drinks so definitely not on my sharpest today.
- How do you feel?
- Feel good. I was thinking to get some coffee but I am just going to ‘tough’ it out for the day and see what happens.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday we had a big down day and we dropped to the 49.30 level
- There was a Triangle forming on the 4H chart and we BD from that and even broke the 49.80 level so the bears are having fun
- The last few trading days we were moving away from the Daily 2.0 SD and got close to the 1.0 SD but now we have dropped back into the 1.5 SD so let’s see if this level can hold or that we drop further.
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 61% bullish
- Last week 68% bullish
- Last 3 days 68% bullish
- Although sentiment has increased in bullishness I believe the bears will have their day in the sun first before the bulls can take over
- According to investing.com today
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 58.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 23 when EURUSD traded near 1.1388; price has moved 0.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% higher than yesterday and 10.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
- Gold
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.7% higher than yesterday and 5.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- STRONG BEARISH BIAS
- Geopolitics
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- For me this is coming out tomorrow morning
- EIA report
- And this is coming out Thursday early morning
- What are the headlines of today?
- Shale Under Pressure As Oil Falls Below $50
- The OPEC+ cuts still are not doing very much to boost oil prices, dashing hopes for many U.S. shale producers. With companies in the process of formulating their budgets for 2019, the prospect of $50 oil sticking around raises questions about the heady production figures expected from the shale patch.
- Asia shares sink as global growth worries deepen
- Asian share markets sank on Tuesday as heightened worries about a slowing global economy sent Wall Street stocks skidding to their lowest levels in more than a year.
- Wall Street sell-off keeps European shares near two-year lows
- MILAN (Reuters) — A heavy sell-off on Wall Street sent European shares tumbling on Tuesday with oil stocks leading the decline as crude prices extended their losses and Royal Dutch Shell (AS:RDSa) tumbled on reports of a possible acquisition.
- Gold Prices Slip as Focus Shifts to Fed
- Saudi Oil Minister Discusses Further Cooperation With World’s Largest Refiner
- Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih discussed on Sunday opportunities for joint investments and cooperation in petrochemical and refining projects with Mukesh Ambani, the chairman of India’s Reliance Industries—the company owning the world’s largest refining hub.
- Euro rises as dollar wilts before expected Fed caution
- Oil Prices Mixed as U.S. Oil Production Rises
- Investing.com — Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday morning in Asia, with WTI crude oil slipping below the $50 mark for the first time in a year on a surge of production in the U.S. but Brent oil inching higher.
- Iran Claims Its Oil Revenues Surged Despite Sanctions
- Iran’s revenues from crude oil and oil products surged by 55 percent between March and October, the first seven months of the Iranian year, compared to the same period of the previous year, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Monday, quoting data from the Central Bank of Iran.
- Growth Fears Push Gold to Largest Gain in 2 Weeks Ahead of Fed
- Investing.com — Fears of a global recession are giving gold an early boost ahead of this week’s Fed decision on rate hikes, with the market bracing for a rally should the central bank stall on an increase or even resort to dovish language after approving one.
- Shale Under Pressure As Oil Falls Below $50
- How is the Geopolitical stability in the world?
- It seems that the most concern is about the growth of world economics
- Additional OPEC news
- None at this moment
Intraday Technical Analysis
Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | |
12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | 12/12/2018 | 12/13/2018 | 12/14/208 | 12/10 — 12/14 | 12/17/2018 | |
High | 52.78 | 52 | 52.827 | 53.242 | 53.146 | 53.455 | 52.145 |
Low | 50.5 | 50.67 | 50.91 | 50.32 | 51.059 | 50.536 | 49.336 |
Close | 50.871 | 51.925 | 51.17 | 52.821 | 51.398 | 51.449 | 49.458 |
Pip move | 228 | 172 | 191.7 | 292.2 | 208.7 | 291.9 | 280.9 |
PP | 51.384 | 51.662 | 51.636 | 52.128 | 51.868 | 51.813 | 50.313 |
R1 | 52.268 | 52.654 | 52.362 | 53.936 | 52.677 | 53.09 | 51.29 |
R2 | 53.664 | 53 | 53.553 | 55.05 | 53.955 | 54.732 | 53.122 |
S1 | 49.988 | 51 | 50.445 | 51.014 | 50.59 | 50.171 | 48.481 |
S2 | 49.104 | 50 | 49.719 | 49.206 | 49.781 | 48.894 | 47.504 |
TV | 68,804 | 55,460 | 56,804 | 66,441 | 60,821 | 308,330 | 54218 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- Yesterday we had about the same biggest swing as the whole of last week with 280 ticks
- Most of this went into the downside where we broke to new lows
- Yesterday we had about the same biggest swing as the whole of last week with 280 ticks
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels? What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- The Daily shows a support level at 47.50 and then 42.90
- On the resistance side we have the 4H level of 49.80
- How far away are we from technical levels?
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | WPP | 51.813 | 258.8 |
R5 | DR1 | 51.29 | 206.5 |
R4 | 30M | 51.25 | 202.5 |
R3 | DPP | 50.313 | 108.8 |
R2 | WS1 | 50.171 | 94.6 |
R1 | 4H | 49.8 | 57.5 |
CURRENT | 49.225 | ||
S1 | WS2 | 48.894 | -33.1 |
S2 | DS1 | 48.481 | -74.4 |
S3 | DS2 | 47.504 | -172.1 |
S4 | Daily | 47.5 | -172.5 |
S5 | 4H | 45.1 | -412.5 |
S6 | Daily | 42.9 | -632.5 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- During the AS we found temporary support at the 49 level which is also the WS2 48.894 level
- We bounced off this level and failed to make new highs
- During the AS we found temporary support at the 49 level which is also the WS2 48.894 level
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.4327
- It seems we are still decreasing in ATR which is a good sign cause that might mean that we are settling on a direction
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I’m going to wait and see how PA reacts to the WS2 48.894 or resistance at 49.80 level
- It is likely that we will continue to inch lower a bit before returning. I think we are in the exhaustion leg part on the 4H chart so we might be looking to find support after a big drop and then reverse.
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take playbook trades
- Be extra cautious today because you are not as sharp and the market seems to be in a bit of a state of limbo
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- After the open we inhed higher a bit and the at 10:55 we dropped and continued the drop at 11:00 and are now testing the 48.90 level
- We dropped further breaking the WS2 48.894 and halted at the DS1 48.481 for temporary support
- When we dropped the spread increased like crazy. When normally at 28/29 I saw it increase to 100 and now it’s back to 34/35 which means the liquidity today is low
- I am waiting for confirmation on the DS1 48.481 to hold up as support or a potential break
- The 5M VWAP has entered the tightening phase again and the 30M shows we rejected the 2.0 SD fairly big and then PA hovered between the WS2 and DS1 level
- The 5M shows that we returned to the LKC after crossing the VWAP mean so we might be looking to get back into the KC
- NEWS
- European shares plunge after Wall Street’s ‘Santa Crash’
- MILAN (Reuters) — European shares tumbled on Tuesday after a sell-off on Wall Street, with oil stocks leading the drop as crude prices extended their losses and Royal Dutch Shell (AS:RDSa) fell after reports of a possible acquisition.
- The pan-European STOXX 600 (STOXX) index was down 0.6 percent by 0857 GMT, getting closer to the two-year lows hit last week, as concern mounted over slowing economic growth.
- A speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping that investors had hoped could lift morale had no impact. Attention shifted to the Federal Reserve, which is almost certain to raise interest rates at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
- Traders will be watching the Fed’s projections for future rate increases, which could boost equities.
- European shares plunge after Wall Street’s ‘Santa Crash’
- PA retraced back to 48.90 level and we are currently still over the 5M VWAP mean
- The spread is still high at 34 and since it’s almost 14:30 I don’t think I’ll be taking any trades at this point. So I’m going to wrap this up for today.
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- Took a long position right at the open after I saw a doji candle at the bottom of the range at the 49.10 level (which we rejected earlier during the AS
- Also the rejection point coincided with the 30M 2.0 SD touch
- I took a small position since it was at the open and I had never done that
- Entry
- 49.189
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- 49.060
- Just under the wick
- 49.060
- TP
- 49.473
- At the top of the range
- 49.473
- Trade Management
- Covered when we hit the VWAP mean
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal with continuation
- After we rejected the 48.30 level we inched higher and then we made a first pullback that closed above the 5MA so expected another move up to at least the VWAP mean
- However, since the spread is higher than usual and we had already inched higher I took the smallest position I could take to be extra cautious
- Entry
- 48.633
- Swing Reversal with continuation
- SL
- Under the pullback at 48.50
- TP
- 48.938
- Trade Management
- I added to my position when I saw it go in my favor
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Same as T2
- Entry
- 48.727
- Entry
- Same as T2
- SL
- Under the pullback at 48.50
- TP
- 48.945
- Trade Management
- I covered both positions T2 and T3 when we reached the 5M VWAP mean at a profit of
- T2 — 15 ticks
- T3 — 4 ticks
- I covered both positions T2 and T3 when we reached the 5M VWAP mean at a profit of
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal / Swing Reversal with continuation / Squeeze
- SL
- TP
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I took 3 trades
- Only take playbook trades
- I took a swing reversal and continuation trade
- Be extra cautious today because you are not as sharp and the market seems to be in a bit of a state of limbo
- I lowered my size even more since the market seemed to behave different than usual with the spreads being wider I feared there would be no pulling through on the move. Overall I am happy with my performance today considering that I was also not the sharpest today.
- Another thing I will focus on is writing out my roadmap to becoming a CPT (consistently profitable trader) so that I have a clearer understanding of the path before me.
- I am up 25 ticks for the day
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, commodities, playbook, one good trade,
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