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12202018 Trade Plan — big support rejection

Daily Report Card

12202018 Trade Plan — big support rejection

12202018 Trade Plan — big sup­port rejection

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • How do you feel?
      • How would you rate it (1–5)?

        The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

        • What hap­pened yesterday?
          • Yes­ter­day, we pulled back on the dai­ly chart over the 47.50 resis­tance lev­el but the close was under­neath it
            • So still look­ing very bearish
        • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
          • What does the crowd think?
            • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
              • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
              • Last week 63% bullish
              • Last 3 days 61% bullish
              • The sen­ti­ment shows a decrease in bull­ish­ness and com­pared to yes­ter­day we see a drop of 1 point over­all, drop 5 points on last week and 7 points in the last 3 days. That’s seems like a big shift in sen­ti­ment and the price reflects this
            • Accord­ing to investing.com today
              • All sen­ti­ments is 59% bullish
              • Last week 60% bullish
              • Last 3 days 57% bullish
              • Bull­ish­ness has def­i­nite­ly dropped in the last few days
                • 4 points in the last 3 days and 1 point n the last week.
        • EURUSD
          • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 47.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 7.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 22.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 3.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 35.5% high­er from last week.
          • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-short sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to rise. Traders are fur­ther net-short than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bull­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
          • LONG BIAS
        • Gold
          • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week.
          • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
          • STRONG BEARISH BIAS

        Intra­day Fundamentals

        • API report
          • We had a big­ger than expect­ed build of inven­to­ries accord­ing to API of 3.450M
        • EIA report
          • The EIA reports a draw of ‑0.497M which would be con­sid­ered slight­ly bullish
        • Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
          • Gold Prices Fall After Fed Deci­sion; U.S. Dol­lar Also Slips
            • The cen­tral bank took the tar­get range for its bench­mark fund rate to 2.25–2.5% on Wednes­day while fore­cast­ing few­er rate increas­es in 2019 than it had at its Sep­tem­ber pol­i­cy meeting.
          • Can Chi­na Save South Sudan’s Oil Sector?
            • War-torn South Sudan could become a sig­nif­i­cant oil pro­duc­er in the region if the coun­try can man­age to main­tain a peace deal reached between war­ring sides in Sep­tem­ber. How­ev­er, accord­ing to UN peace-keep­ing head Jean-Pierre Lacroix, peace in the nation of some 10.2 mil­lion is frag­ile and con­tin­gent on sev­er­al fac­tors. on Tues­day that “the peace process is not yet assessed as ful­ly sus­tain­able and irre­versible and will need pos­i­tive engage­ment and com­pro­mise from the par­ties if it is to deliv­er gen­uine hope and relief to the suf­fer­ing South Sudanese populations.”
          • Iraq Signs Deal With Schlum­berg­er To Boost Out­put At Majnoon Oil Field
            • Iraq has struck an agree­ment with the world’s largest oil­field ser­vice provider Schlum­berg­er to drill 40 wells at the Majnoon oil field as it looks to boost pro­duc­tion at the giant field, the Iraqi oil min­istry said on Wednesday.
          • State Dept Calls On Libya To Resolve Sharara Problem
            • The U.S. State Depart­ment has issued a state­ment urg­ing the Libyan author­i­ties and the mil­i­tants who put a block­ade on the country’s biggest oil field to resolve their dif­fer­ences so pro­duc­tion could resume.
          • Tiny Qatar Flex­es Its Mus­cles With Oil And Gas Invest­ment Push
            • Qatar is con­tin­u­ing to make ener­gy head­line news. The tiny king­dom is forg­ing its own path even at the expense of recent­ly pulling out of OPEC to focus on its liq­ue­fied nat­ur­al gas (LNG) ambi­tions. How­ev­er, its deci­sion to pull the plug on its involve­ment with OPEC was also like­ly a geopo­lit­i­cal move against Sau­di Ara­bia and oth­er Arab neigh­bors that put in place a block­ade and eco­nom­ic mea­sures against Doha over what they allege is state spon­sor­ship of ter­ror groups, an alle­ga­tion that the coun­try vehe­ment­ly denies.
          • Sau­di Oil Min­is­ter: Crude Stocks Should Drop Very Soon
            • A day after oil prices plum­met­ed again amid glob­al mar­ket sell-offs and fears of over­sup­ply, Sau­di Ener­gy Min­is­ter Khalid al-Fal­ih said that he expects glob­al oil inven­to­ries to drop by the end of the first quar­ter next year.
          • Oil Prices Rise On Small Crude Draw
            • Amid plung­ing oil prices pres­sured by the dou­ble weight of U.S. pro­duc­tion and glob­al eco­nom­ic growth pro­jec­tions, the Ener­gy Infor­ma­tion Admin­is­tra­tion report­ed a crude oil inven­to­ry draw of 500,000 bar­rels for the week to Decem­ber 14, after a week­ly draw of 1.2 mil­lion bar­rels a week earlier.
          • India Finds Way To Skirt U.S. Sanc­tions Against Iran
            • India will use five escrow accounts in Iran­ian banks to pay for deliv­er­ies of Iran­ian crude oil amid U.S. sanc­tions, Bloomberg reports, cit­ing sources close to the sit­u­a­tion. The accounts are in the name of state Indi­an lender UCO Bank.
          • El Sharara oil­field to reopen, Libyan gov­ern­ment says
            • BENGHAZI, Libya/TUNIS (Reuters) — Libya’s biggest oil­field, El Sharara, will reopen, the coun­try’s inter­na­tion­al­ly rec­og­nized gov­ern­ment said on Wednes­day after Prime Min­is­ter Fayez al-Sar­raj flew there to per­suade pro­test­ers to end a blockage
          • Gold Retreats After Fed Rate Hike; Hit 6‑Month Highs Earlier
        • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
          • None at the moment

        Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

        Wednes­dayThurs­dayFri­dayWeekMon­dayTues­dayWednes­day
        12/12/201812/13/201812/14/20812/10 — 12/1412/17/201812/18/201812/19/2018
        High52.82753.24253.14653.45552.14549.9
        Low50.9150.3251.05950.53649.33646.12
        Close51.1752.82151.39851.44949.45846.247
        Pip move191.7292.2208.7291.9280.9378
        PP51.63652.12851.86851.81350.31347.422
        dis­tance72.6180.880.9127.797.7130.2
        R152.36253.93652.67753.0951.2948.724
        dis­tance191.7292.2208.7291.9280.9378
        R253.55355.0553.95554.73253.12251.202
        dis­tance-119.1-111.4-127.8-164.2-183.2-247.8
        S150.44551.01450.5950.17148.48144.944
        dis­tance-191.7-292.2-208.7-291.9-280.9-378
        S249.71949.20649.78148.89447.50443.642
        TV56,80466,44160,821308,33054,21872,306
        50MA61.21260.78160.32659.83359.26758.766
        200MA66.22266.18166.13766.07565.99965.932
        • What can we tell from the PP levels?
          • DPP inched a lit­tle low­er but not as much as the day before obviously
          • The PP lev­els have decreased in dis­tance from each oth­er so we might be get­ting into a squeeze again where we won’t see a big move but per­haps some more range bound action
        • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
          • We are cur­rent­ly right under a Dai­ly lev­el of 47
          • And then we have resis­tance at a 4H 49.80 level
          • Sup­port we can find on the 4H 45.10 level
        • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
          • On the 4H chart we can see we moved away from the 2.0 SD after the big drop
          • The 30M chart shows that we are between the 30M 47 and DPP 47.377 levels
        • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
        S/Rkindlev­elDis­tance
        R64H49.8259.5
        R5DR249.408220.3
        R4WS248.894168.9
        R3DR148.416121.1
        R2Dai­ly47.529.5
        R1DPP47.37717.2
        CURRENT47.205
        S130M47-20.5
        S230M46.62-58.5
        S3DS146.385-82
        S430M46.25-95.5
        S5DS245.346-185.9
        S64H45.1-210.5
        • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
          • Dur­ing the AS we can see that we bounced off the 47 lev­el once and then just before Lon­don opened we bounced twice more
        • ATR
          • What is the ATR on the daily?
            • Is it increasing/decreasing?
              • 2.4772 it is about the same but looks to per­haps decrease very slightly

        Trade Plan

        • I am going to wait and see if there is a KC VWAP diver­gence or con­ver­gence and based on that make an assess­ment if I’ll be tak­ing Swing Rever­sal trades or per­haps try out a range bound strat­e­gy if we have a KC VWAP widen­ing convergence

        My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

        • Only take 4 trades
        • Only take Play­book trades

        Read­ing the Tape

        • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
          • We dropped to the 47 lev­el at Lon­don open
          • We might be start­ing a KC VWAP widen­ing con­ver­gence and thus we might be in for anoth­er day of range bound trad­ing on the 5M which trans­lates into inde­ci­sion on the high­er time frames
          • T1
            • Right off the bat I took a long posi­tion at the LKC think­ing we were set­ting up for range bound trading
              • Win 3 ticks
          • Spread is nor­mal at 28/29
          • 10:25
            • We dropped to the 46.62 lev­el and might be look­ing to break it
            • We are mov­ing away from the 2.0 SD on the 5M
          • We might be reject­ing the 46.62 on the short term and we dropped fur­ther after we moved away from the 2.0 SD which usu­al­ly means there is no fol­low-through on the move
          • We broke the 46.62 lev­el when it looked like it would reverse actu­al­ly but now we are test­ing the 46.25 level
          • 11:05
            • We might see a rever­sal at this 46.25 lev­el if we can push back a lit­tle high­er dur­ing the next 20 minutes
          • We are look­ing at a rever­sal but I am going to wait for a lit­tle pull­back before going long on this
          • Wow we are get­ting pushed back up hard and have almost retraced the entire 30M candle
            • We pushed so far that we have a huge low­er wick on the 30M and push­ing it beyond the open and thus are very bull­ish at this point
            • And we just closed the can­dle all the way up 
              • also lis­ten­ing to the song all the way up at the moment 🙂
            • I am still wait­ing for that retrace­ment though since we are at the LKC and 5M VWAP mean
          • T2abc
            • Win 13 ticks
          • We inched high­er and had a swing high at the 47 lev­el which was also the UKC and we reversed
          • We are about the have the NY open so that means I am done trad­ing for today

        Trade Man­age­ment

        Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

        • T1
          • Why? What do I see?
            • KC VWAP widen­ing con­ver­gence Range bound trading
              • I saw price drop to the LKC and the VWAP was widen­ing togeth­er with the KC so thought this could be a range bound ses­sion com­ing on and went long at
              • Entry
                • 47.023
          • SL
            • 46.904
              • Few ticks under the drop to 47 level
          • TP
            • 47.211
              • At the top of the can­dle range
          • Trade Man­age­ment
            • Cov­ered at 47.054 at a 3 tick profit
            • Cov­ereds quick­ly because I did feel like I made this call a lit­tle too fast and we had retraced to the 5MA so cov­ered quickly
              • After which we dropped but are look­ing to con­tin­ue higher

        • T2
          • Why? What do I see?
            • Swing Rever­sal
              • We pushed back hard after we dropped to the 45.80 level
              • And when we hit the LKC and pulled back a lit­tle bit I took a tiny long posi­tion to get my feet wet
                • But we then soon dropped a bit fur­ther so let’s wait and see how this develops.
                • Entry
                  • 46.632
          • SL
            • 46.044
              • At the low­er body of the drop can­dle to 45.80 level
          • TP
            • 46.963
              • At the BD point
          • Trade Man­age­ment
            • I actu­al­ly think this might go fur­ther down from here
            • But I have my stop in place and I’m going to let the trade work out but I do feel like cov­er­ing at a small­er loss when we hit below it’s pull­back swing low
            • Added 5 to my position
              • PC dropped after I took a posi­tion and it might be look­ing to drop back down
              • We dropped to the 46.385 DS1 lev­el and that is also the 30M 1.5 SD so let’s see if this holds as support
              • I do feel like I am hop­ing for the best a bit but I do have an exit plan. Which is if we break the 46.25 lev­el I am out for sure
              • I am wait­ing for prime time to hit and thus liq­uid­i­ty into the mar­ket so we can actu­al­ly make a move instead of just float­ing around 
              • Prime time now and we had crossed the 46.62 but then dropped back to this lev­el so I am wait­ing to see if we can hold this or not
              • NOTE TO SELF
                • When we were close to break even I should have exit­ed the trade since I am obvi­ous­ly not too sure about this trade any­more. Hav­ing said this I feel I should just take myself out at this moment but it looks like we might hold the 46.62 level
              • Saw that we had hit 1.5 SD on the 30 and added anoth­er 5
                • And quick­ly cov­ered at a small profit
              • It seems we found sup­port again at 46.25 but we are not out of the woods yet
              • When we hit the 26.62 lev­el very slow­ly I didn’t feel con­fi­dent that it would break so I cov­ered and over­all I am some­what hap­py that I broke even with all my trades so that’s a good thing. How­ev­er, I should not have been in this trade for so long. I know that when I am in a trade that doesn’t do what I think it’s going to with­in 10–15 min­utes I am wrong and I should get out. How­ev­er, it was hard to swal­low to take a loss on this trade since I was ‘con­vinced’ that it would run higher. 
              • T2a
                • Entry 46.632
                • Cov­ered 46.775
                • P/L
                  • Win 14 ticks
              • T2b
                • Entry 46.351
                • Cov­ered 46.444
                • P/L
                  • Win 14 ticks
              • T2c
                • Entry 46.772
                • Cov­ered 46.623
                • P/L
                  • -15 ticks
              • Over­all up 13 ticks but broke even on the mon­ey side
        • T3
          • NOT TAKEN
        • T4
          • NOT TAKEN

        Trade Review

        • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
          • I didn’t do well today. I should have cov­ered my posi­tion soon­er and tak­en a loss. I hes­i­tat­ed and then it was as if I was like a deer caught in the head­lights. Luck­i­ly I took the trade lat­er on which I should have tak­en in the first place since that was the best option of the day and will be the Play­book set­up I will be writ­ing tomorrow. 
          • Nonethe­less, I am a lit­tle bit hap­py that I stayed com­posed through­out this trad­ing session
            • I looked at crit­i­cal lev­els and assessed if I was head­ed for dis­as­ter by stay­ing in the trade but it looked like the chances of that were slim.

        Dai­ly Report Card

        • Only take 4 trades
          • I know I wrote that I took 2 trades but the sec­ond had 3 trades with­in it so tech­ni­cal­ly I took a total of 4 which is my lim­it. To be hon­est I wasn’t pay­ing too much atten­tion to this lim­it since I saw a chance and grabbed it. 
        • Only take Play­book trades
          • I did not
            • Not in the sense that I added to my posi­tion after I had already tak­en a trade and this was not my plan. I had tak­en a tiny posi­tion to get my feet wet and then when it went my way (or at least I thought it did) I added and then failed to cov­er at a loss when it reversed. 
            • Les­son learned again to just stick to my plan
            • One rea­son for my dis­obe­di­ence could be that I was par­tic­u­lar­ly ‘edgy’ today haven drank cof­fee (only one espres­so) but it seems that after a good night’s sleep the caf­feine works even bet­ter. I am start­ing to think to just stop drink­ing caf­feine again. But since I love it so much I will decrease the amount of caf­feine I take in by brew­ing my own. 

        Feed­back?

        Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

        T3chAddict
        t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

        Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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