
20 Dec 12202018 Trade Plan — big support rejection
12202018 Trade Plan — big support rejection
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- How do you feel?
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday, we pulled back on the daily chart over the 47.50 resistance level but the close was underneath it
- So still looking very bearish
- Yesterday, we pulled back on the daily chart over the 47.50 resistance level but the close was underneath it
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 61% bullish
- The sentiment shows a decrease in bullishness and compared to yesterday we see a drop of 1 point overall, drop 5 points on last week and 7 points in the last 3 days. That’s seems like a big shift in sentiment and the price reflects this
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 59% bullish
- Last week 60% bullish
- Last 3 days 57% bullish
- Bullishness has definitely dropped in the last few days
- 4 points in the last 3 days and 1 point n the last week.
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 47.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.7% lower than yesterday and 22.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 35.5% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
- LONG BIAS
- Gold
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.7% higher than yesterday and 5.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- STRONG BEARISH BIAS
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- We had a bigger than expected build of inventories according to API of 3.450M
- EIA report
- The EIA reports a draw of ‑0.497M which would be considered slightly bullish
- Geopolitics and the headlines of today?
- Gold Prices Fall After Fed Decision; U.S. Dollar Also Slips
- The central bank took the target range for its benchmark fund rate to 2.25–2.5% on Wednesday while forecasting fewer rate increases in 2019 than it had at its September policy meeting.
- Can China Save South Sudan’s Oil Sector?
- War-torn South Sudan could become a significant oil producer in the region if the country can manage to maintain a peace deal reached between warring sides in September. However, according to UN peace-keeping head Jean-Pierre Lacroix, peace in the nation of some 10.2 million is fragile and contingent on several factors. on Tuesday that “the peace process is not yet assessed as fully sustainable and irreversible and will need positive engagement and compromise from the parties if it is to deliver genuine hope and relief to the suffering South Sudanese populations.”
- Iraq Signs Deal With Schlumberger To Boost Output At Majnoon Oil Field
- Iraq has struck an agreement with the world’s largest oilfield service provider Schlumberger to drill 40 wells at the Majnoon oil field as it looks to boost production at the giant field, the Iraqi oil ministry said on Wednesday.
- State Dept Calls On Libya To Resolve Sharara Problem
- The U.S. State Department has issued a statement urging the Libyan authorities and the militants who put a blockade on the country’s biggest oil field to resolve their differences so production could resume.
- Tiny Qatar Flexes Its Muscles With Oil And Gas Investment Push
- Qatar is continuing to make energy headline news. The tiny kingdom is forging its own path even at the expense of recently pulling out of OPEC to focus on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) ambitions. However, its decision to pull the plug on its involvement with OPEC was also likely a geopolitical move against Saudi Arabia and other Arab neighbors that put in place a blockade and economic measures against Doha over what they allege is state sponsorship of terror groups, an allegation that the country vehemently denies.
- Saudi Oil Minister: Crude Stocks Should Drop Very Soon
- A day after oil prices plummeted again amid global market sell-offs and fears of oversupply, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that he expects global oil inventories to drop by the end of the first quarter next year.
- Oil Prices Rise On Small Crude Draw
- Amid plunging oil prices pressured by the double weight of U.S. production and global economic growth projections, the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory draw of 500,000 barrels for the week to December 14, after a weekly draw of 1.2 million barrels a week earlier.
- India Finds Way To Skirt U.S. Sanctions Against Iran
- India will use five escrow accounts in Iranian banks to pay for deliveries of Iranian crude oil amid U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg reports, citing sources close to the situation. The accounts are in the name of state Indian lender UCO Bank.
- El Sharara oilfield to reopen, Libyan government says
- BENGHAZI, Libya/TUNIS (Reuters) — Libya’s biggest oilfield, El Sharara, will reopen, the country’s internationally recognized government said on Wednesday after Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj flew there to persuade protesters to end a blockage
- Gold Retreats After Fed Rate Hike; Hit 6‑Month Highs Earlier
- Gold Prices Fall After Fed Decision; U.S. Dollar Also Slips
- Additional OPEC news
- None at the moment
Intraday Technical Analysis
Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | |
12/12/2018 | 12/13/2018 | 12/14/208 | 12/10 — 12/14 | 12/17/2018 | 12/18/2018 | 12/19/2018 | |
High | 52.827 | 53.242 | 53.146 | 53.455 | 52.145 | 49.9 | |
Low | 50.91 | 50.32 | 51.059 | 50.536 | 49.336 | 46.12 | |
Close | 51.17 | 52.821 | 51.398 | 51.449 | 49.458 | 46.247 | |
Pip move | 191.7 | 292.2 | 208.7 | 291.9 | 280.9 | 378 | |
PP | 51.636 | 52.128 | 51.868 | 51.813 | 50.313 | 47.422 | |
distance | 72.6 | 180.8 | 80.9 | 127.7 | 97.7 | 130.2 | |
R1 | 52.362 | 53.936 | 52.677 | 53.09 | 51.29 | 48.724 | |
distance | 191.7 | 292.2 | 208.7 | 291.9 | 280.9 | 378 | |
R2 | 53.553 | 55.05 | 53.955 | 54.732 | 53.122 | 51.202 | |
distance | -119.1 | -111.4 | -127.8 | -164.2 | -183.2 | -247.8 | |
S1 | 50.445 | 51.014 | 50.59 | 50.171 | 48.481 | 44.944 | |
distance | -191.7 | -292.2 | -208.7 | -291.9 | -280.9 | -378 | |
S2 | 49.719 | 49.206 | 49.781 | 48.894 | 47.504 | 43.642 | |
TV | 56,804 | 66,441 | 60,821 | 308,330 | 54,218 | 72,306 | |
50MA | 61.212 | 60.781 | 60.326 | 59.833 | 59.267 | 58.766 | |
200MA | 66.222 | 66.181 | 66.137 | 66.075 | 65.999 | 65.932 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- DPP inched a little lower but not as much as the day before obviously
- The PP levels have decreased in distance from each other so we might be getting into a squeeze again where we won’t see a big move but perhaps some more range bound action
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We are currently right under a Daily level of 47
- And then we have resistance at a 4H 49.80 level
- Support we can find on the 4H 45.10 level
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- On the 4H chart we can see we moved away from the 2.0 SD after the big drop
- The 30M chart shows that we are between the 30M 47 and DPP 47.377 levels
- How far away are we from technical levels?
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | 4H | 49.8 | 259.5 |
R5 | DR2 | 49.408 | 220.3 |
R4 | WS2 | 48.894 | 168.9 |
R3 | DR1 | 48.416 | 121.1 |
R2 | Daily | 47.5 | 29.5 |
R1 | DPP | 47.377 | 17.2 |
CURRENT | 47.205 | ||
S1 | 30M | 47 | -20.5 |
S2 | 30M | 46.62 | -58.5 |
S3 | DS1 | 46.385 | -82 |
S4 | 30M | 46.25 | -95.5 |
S5 | DS2 | 45.346 | -185.9 |
S6 | 4H | 45.1 | -210.5 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- During the AS we can see that we bounced off the 47 level once and then just before London opened we bounced twice more
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.4772 it is about the same but looks to perhaps decrease very slightly
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I am going to wait and see if there is a KC VWAP divergence or convergence and based on that make an assessment if I’ll be taking Swing Reversal trades or perhaps try out a range bound strategy if we have a KC VWAP widening convergence
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take Playbook trades
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- We dropped to the 47 level at London open
- We might be starting a KC VWAP widening convergence and thus we might be in for another day of range bound trading on the 5M which translates into indecision on the higher time frames
- T1
- Right off the bat I took a long position at the LKC thinking we were setting up for range bound trading
- Win 3 ticks
- Right off the bat I took a long position at the LKC thinking we were setting up for range bound trading
- Spread is normal at 28/29
- 10:25
- We dropped to the 46.62 level and might be looking to break it
- We are moving away from the 2.0 SD on the 5M
- We might be rejecting the 46.62 on the short term and we dropped further after we moved away from the 2.0 SD which usually means there is no follow-through on the move
- We broke the 46.62 level when it looked like it would reverse actually but now we are testing the 46.25 level
- 11:05
- We might see a reversal at this 46.25 level if we can push back a little higher during the next 20 minutes
- We are looking at a reversal but I am going to wait for a little pullback before going long on this
- Wow we are getting pushed back up hard and have almost retraced the entire 30M candle
- We pushed so far that we have a huge lower wick on the 30M and pushing it beyond the open and thus are very bullish at this point
- And we just closed the candle all the way up
- also listening to the song all the way up at the moment 🙂
- I am still waiting for that retracement though since we are at the LKC and 5M VWAP mean
- T2abc
- Win 13 ticks
- We inched higher and had a swing high at the 47 level which was also the UKC and we reversed
- We are about the have the NY open so that means I am done trading for today
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- KC VWAP widening convergence Range bound trading
- I saw price drop to the LKC and the VWAP was widening together with the KC so thought this could be a range bound session coming on and went long at
- Entry
- 47.023
- KC VWAP widening convergence Range bound trading
- SL
- 46.904
- Few ticks under the drop to 47 level
- 46.904
- TP
- 47.211
- At the top of the candle range
- 47.211
- Trade Management
- Covered at 47.054 at a 3 tick profit
- Covereds quickly because I did feel like I made this call a little too fast and we had retraced to the 5MA so covered quickly
- After which we dropped but are looking to continue higher
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- We pushed back hard after we dropped to the 45.80 level
- And when we hit the LKC and pulled back a little bit I took a tiny long position to get my feet wet
- But we then soon dropped a bit further so let’s wait and see how this develops.
- Entry
- 46.632
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- 46.044
- At the lower body of the drop candle to 45.80 level
- 46.044
- TP
- 46.963
- At the BD point
- 46.963
- Trade Management
- I actually think this might go further down from here
- But I have my stop in place and I’m going to let the trade work out but I do feel like covering at a smaller loss when we hit below it’s pullback swing low
- Added 5 to my position
- PC dropped after I took a position and it might be looking to drop back down
- We dropped to the 46.385 DS1 level and that is also the 30M 1.5 SD so let’s see if this holds as support
- I do feel like I am hoping for the best a bit but I do have an exit plan. Which is if we break the 46.25 level I am out for sure
- I am waiting for prime time to hit and thus liquidity into the market so we can actually make a move instead of just floating around
- Prime time now and we had crossed the 46.62 but then dropped back to this level so I am waiting to see if we can hold this or not
- NOTE TO SELF
- When we were close to break even I should have exited the trade since I am obviously not too sure about this trade anymore. Having said this I feel I should just take myself out at this moment but it looks like we might hold the 46.62 level
- Saw that we had hit 1.5 SD on the 30 and added another 5
- And quickly covered at a small profit
- It seems we found support again at 46.25 but we are not out of the woods yet
- When we hit the 26.62 level very slowly I didn’t feel confident that it would break so I covered and overall I am somewhat happy that I broke even with all my trades so that’s a good thing. However, I should not have been in this trade for so long. I know that when I am in a trade that doesn’t do what I think it’s going to within 10–15 minutes I am wrong and I should get out. However, it was hard to swallow to take a loss on this trade since I was ‘convinced’ that it would run higher.
- T2a
- Entry 46.632
- Covered 46.775
- P/L
- Win 14 ticks
- T2b
- Entry 46.351
- Covered 46.444
- P/L
- Win 14 ticks
- T2c
- Entry 46.772
- Covered 46.623
- P/L
- -15 ticks
- Overall up 13 ticks but broke even on the money side
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- NOT TAKEN
- T4
- NOT TAKEN
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I didn’t do well today. I should have covered my position sooner and taken a loss. I hesitated and then it was as if I was like a deer caught in the headlights. Luckily I took the trade later on which I should have taken in the first place since that was the best option of the day and will be the Playbook setup I will be writing tomorrow.
- Nonetheless, I am a little bit happy that I stayed composed throughout this trading session
- I looked at critical levels and assessed if I was headed for disaster by staying in the trade but it looked like the chances of that were slim.
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I know I wrote that I took 2 trades but the second had 3 trades within it so technically I took a total of 4 which is my limit. To be honest I wasn’t paying too much attention to this limit since I saw a chance and grabbed it.
- Only take Playbook trades
- I did not
- Not in the sense that I added to my position after I had already taken a trade and this was not my plan. I had taken a tiny position to get my feet wet and then when it went my way (or at least I thought it did) I added and then failed to cover at a loss when it reversed.
- Lesson learned again to just stick to my plan
- One reason for my disobedience could be that I was particularly ‘edgy’ today haven drank coffee (only one espresso) but it seems that after a good night’s sleep the caffeine works even better. I am starting to think to just stop drinking caffeine again. But since I love it so much I will decrease the amount of caffeine I take in by brewing my own.
- I did not
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
No Comments