Bear Market Trader | Weekly outlook on WTI crude oil market
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12232018 Weekly Big Picture After A Big Drop Last week

12232018 Weekly Big Picture After A Big Drop Last week

12232018 Week­ly Big Pic­ture After A Big Drop Last week

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Review­ing the health progress

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
Beers night before35236102
Hours sleep7.56+18.587.558
Sleep well?2223212
Neg­a­tive thoughts?1211111
Exer­cise yester(to)day1111111
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours01 espres­so real quick1 espres­so real quick1 espres­so real quick2 espres­so real quick1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesnononononono
Water 2.2L bottles2222112
Time bed yesterday00:3003:0012:0012:0003:0003:0002:00
  • How did you do the whole week?
    • I am not doing well on the dis­ci­pline with my sleep­ing rou­tine. The fac­tors that play a big role in this are the fol­low­ing (under­neath are my pro­posed solu­tions and goals for next week):
      • Social gath­er­ings that include drink­ing alcohol
        • This inter­feres with my sleep­ing rou­tine on the week­end and spills over to the begin­ning of the week
          • I will lim­it to social gath­er­ings to one day. Fri­day or Saturday. 
      • Busi­ness meet­ings that again include alcohol
        • I don’t need to be there when we look at prop­er­ties. My part­ners can han­dle the pre­lim­i­nary fil­ter­ing of prop­er­ties and in case of enough inter­est I can go have a look.
      • Caf­feine intake
        • I am going to lim­it my caf­feine intake to the week­ends only
      • Inter­mit­tent fasting
        • When I fast and drink caf­feine it has a big­ger effect on me and thus is a dan­ger­ous com­bi­na­tion. Luckily,I only fast dur­ing the week and since I won’t be drink­ing any caf­feine dur­ing the week I won’t have to deal with this.
      • Exer­cis­ing
        • I have to start exer­cis­ing again and will at least do so 2 times a week.

The Big Picture

  • WTI
    • What hap­pened last week?
      • When we look at the week as a whole we can see the bears were hav­ing a good week
      • We had a high of 52.145 and a low of 45.179 and we closed near it’s low at 45.439
        • We almost moved 700 ticks
      • We start­ed the week at the Week­ly 1.0 SD and then dropped into the 2.0 SD at the end of the week in a move that it about the same size as 4 weeks pri­or when we dropped towards the 50 level
        • Last week could be an exhaust­ed move and see a rever­sal but since it is not longer as pre­vi­ous bars in the down­trend we had this last two months I am not over­ly con­fi­dent that we will have a rever­sal at this level
    • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
      • Last week the API report­ed a build of 3.450M and the EIA had fore­cast­ed a draw of ‑2.437M but the ‘actu­al’ num­ber was a draw of ‑0.497M
      • So not too bull­ish reports and we saw the mar­ket react­ing in a very bear­ish way
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?
        • Retail sen­ti­ment seems to be very bull­ish still
      • What does state?
        • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 66% bullish
          • Last 3 days 65% bullish
        • This week’s
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 57% bullish
          • Last 3 days 52% bullish
        • We can see from these num­bers that bull­ish­ness has declined accord­ing to and sen­ti­ment seems to be more bearish
          • But when con­sid­er­ing that 90% or more of retail­ers lose mon­ey we could con­sid­er tak­ing the oppo­site of their sentiment
    • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?
12/10 — 12/1412/17/201812/18/201812/19/201812/20/201812/21/201812/17 — 12/21
Pip move291.9280.9378203.1182.5163.7
  • TV has increased a lit­tle bit in com­par­i­son to last week so we might be see­ing more dis­agree­ment com­ing in but that doesn’t mean we are close to a rever­sal but we are near­ing the area where traders are con­sid­er­ing change in the market
  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
    • Piv­ot levels
      • When we look at the week­ly PP lev­els we can see that we dou­bled the dis­tance of S and R lev­els so we left the squeeze phase and have moved, which we can also see in the price drop of last week
        • When we look at the Dai­ly lev­els we can see that we have done the oppo­site and thus might see a squeeze coming
    • Dai­ly chart
      • Mov­ing Averages
        • We can see that we are still ways away from the 50MA 57.775 and 200MA 65.78 levels
      • On the dai­ly chart we can see that in the last week we hit the VWAP mean and then dropped to the 2.0 SD cross­ing the Week­ly 47.50 lev­el and found ‘tem­po­rary’ sup­port at the Dai­ly lev­el of 45.10
      • 4H chart
        • On the 4H chart we can see that we fol­lowed the VWAP mean down and have hit the squeeze of the bands 
          • It looks like there might be some more down­side before we go up since the moves are all fair­ly small
  • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
    • Down
      • We are more in line with the 4H 50MA
  • Is there an OPEC meeting?
    • Nope
  • Ener­gy sector
    • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing (com­pared to the pre­vi­ous week)?
      • US
        • 1 month
          • -8.25% to
          • -15.90%
        • 3 months
          • -18.55% to
          • -27.68%
        • YTD
          • -16.21% to
          • -24.06%
      • The Amer­i­c­as
        • 1 month
          • -8.03% to
          • -15.51%
        • 3 months
          • -17.35% to
          • -26.31%
        • YTD
          • -16.91% to
          • -24.32%
      • Europe
        • 1 month
          • -3.88% to
          • -7.11%
        • 3 months
          • -9.70% to
          • -15.87%
        • YTD
          • -5.24% to
          • -8.55%
      • Asia
        • 1 month
          • -4.61% to
          • -6.88%
        • 3 months
          • -14.07% to
          • -19.42%
        • YTD
          • -10.01% to
          • -13.92%
      • Mid­dle East / Africa
        • 1 month
          • -7.09% to
          • -7.19%
        • 3 months
          • -5.87% to
          • -8.72%
        • YTD
          • -5.41% to
          • -8.48%
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High    1.14848
      • low    1.13018
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 47.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 7.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 22.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 3.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 35.5% high­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-short sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to rise. Traders are fur­ther net-short than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bull­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High    1266.53
      • Low    1235.65
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 80.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.25 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.1% high­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 27.5% low­er than yes­ter­day and 20.5% low­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?
      • Falling Oil Prices Threat­en Sau­di Eco­nom­ic Growth
        • In Octo­ber the IMF revised its fore­cast for Sau­di eco­nom­ic growth in 2018 and 2019, pre­dict­ing GDP would increase by 2.2 per­cent and 2.4 per­cent, respec­tive­ly, up on the 1.9 per­cent pre­vi­ous­ly pro­ject­ed for both years and a con­sid­er­able increase on a con­trac­tion of 0.9 per­cent in 2017.
        • The fund said the recov­ery was dri­ven by high­er ener­gy prices, which improved exter­nal bal­ances, along with reforms under­tak­en by the gov­ern­ment to increase domes­tic labour par­tic­i­pa­tion and strength­en the busi­ness environment.
      • U.S. envoy in fight against Islam­ic State quits after Syr­ia pullout
        • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — A top U.S. envoy lead­ing a glob­al coali­tion fight­ing Islam­ic State has quit over Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s deci­sion this week to pull U.S. troops out of Syr­ia, a source famil­iar with the mat­ter said on Saturday.
      • Inter­est Rate Hike Hits Oil Hard
        • Oil prices have been slammed over the past week, dragged down by a vari­ety of forces, includ­ing soar­ing U.S. shale pro­duc­tion, high­er-than-expect­ed out­put from Rus­sia, and wor­ries about glob­al demand. On Wednes­day, the U.S. Fed­er­al Reserve decid­ed to pile on.
      • Saud­is Announce High­est-Ever Bud­get Amid Price Slump
        • Sau­di Arabia’s King Salman has announced that the King­dom will spend 7 per­cent more next year, at around US$295 bil­lion (1.1 tril­lion riyals). This breaks the pre­vi­ous record set this year, with bud­get spend­ing at US$261 bil­lion and it might spark con­cerns about the economy’s sus­tain­abil­i­ty as the increase for next year includes a hefty bill for cost-of-liv­ing allowances intro­duced this year.
      • Qatar’s emir offers sup­port for Sudan: Sudan presidency
        • KHARTOUM (Reuters) — Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani called Sudanese Pres­i­dent Omar al-Bashir on Sat­ur­day to express his sup­port for Sudan after days of anti-gov­ern­ment protests, Bashir’s office said in a statement.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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