12232018 Weekly Big Picture After A Big Drop Last week

23 Dec 12232018 Weekly Big Picture After A Big Drop Last week

12232018 Week­ly Big Pic­ture After A Big Drop Last week

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Review­ing the health progress

• How did you do the whole week?
  • I am not doing well on the dis­ci­pline with my sleep­ing rou­tine. The fac­tors that play a big role in this are the fol­low­ing (under­neath are my pro­posed solu­tions and goals for next week):
    • Social gath­er­ings that include drink­ing alcohol
      • This inter­feres with my sleep­ing rou­tine on the week­end and spills over to the begin­ning of the week
        • I will lim­it to social gath­er­ings to one day. Fri­day or Saturday. 
    • Busi­ness meet­ings that again include alcohol
      • I don’t need to be there when we look at prop­er­ties. My part­ners can han­dle the pre­lim­i­nary fil­ter­ing of prop­er­ties and in case of enough inter­est I can go have a look.
    • Caf­feine intake
      • I am going to lim­it my caf­feine intake to the week­ends only
    • Inter­mit­tent fasting
      • When I fast and drink caf­feine it has a big­ger effect on me and thus is a dan­ger­ous com­bi­na­tion. Luckily,I only fast dur­ing the week and since I won’t be drink­ing any caf­feine dur­ing the week I won’t have to deal with this.
    • Exer­cis­ing
      • I have to start exer­cis­ing again and will at least do so 2 times a week.

The Big Picture

• WTI
  • What hap­pened last week?
    • When we look at the week as a whole we can see the bears were hav­ing a good week
    • We had a high of 52.145 and a low of 45.179 and we closed near it’s low at 45.439
      • We almost moved 700 ticks
    • We start­ed the week at the Week­ly 1.0 SD and then dropped into the 2.0 SD at the end of the week in a move that it about the same size as 4 weeks pri­or when we dropped towards the 50 level
      • Last week could be an exhaust­ed move and see a rever­sal but since it is not longer as pre­vi­ous bars in the down­trend we had this last two months I am not over­ly con­fi­dent that we will have a rever­sal at this level
  • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
    • Last week the API report­ed a build of 3.450M and the EIA had fore­cast­ed a draw of ‑2.437M but the ‘actu­al’ num­ber was a draw of ‑0.497M
    • So not too bull­ish reports and we saw the mar­ket react­ing in a very bear­ish way
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?
      • Retail sen­ti­ment seems to be very bull­ish still
    • What does investing.com state?
      • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 66% bullish
        • Last 3 days 65% bullish
      • This week’s
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 57% bullish
        • Last 3 days 52% bullish
      • We can see from these num­bers that bull­ish­ness has declined accord­ing to investing.com and sen­ti­ment seems to be more bearish
        • But when con­sid­er­ing that 90% or more of retail­ers lose mon­ey we could con­sid­er tak­ing the oppo­site of their sentiment
  • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?

• TV has increased a lit­tle bit in com­par­i­son to last week so we might be see­ing more dis­agree­ment com­ing in but that doesn’t mean we are close to a rever­sal but we are near­ing the area where traders are con­sid­er­ing change in the market
• What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
  • Piv­ot levels
    • When we look at the week­ly PP lev­els we can see that we dou­bled the dis­tance of S and R lev­els so we left the squeeze phase and have moved, which we can also see in the price drop of last week
      • When we look at the Dai­ly lev­els we can see that we have done the oppo­site and thus might see a squeeze coming
  • Dai­ly chart
    • Mov­ing Averages
      • We can see that we are still ways away from the 50MA 57.775 and 200MA 65.78 levels
    • On the dai­ly chart we can see that in the last week we hit the VWAP mean and then dropped to the 2.0 SD cross­ing the Week­ly 47.50 lev­el and found ‘tem­po­rary’ sup­port at the Dai­ly lev­el of 45.10
    • 4H chart
      • On the 4H chart we can see that we fol­lowed the VWAP mean down and have hit the squeeze of the bands 
        • It looks like there might be some more down­side before we go up since the moves are all fair­ly small
• How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?

• Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
  • Down
    • We are more in line with the 4H 50MA
• Is there an OPEC meeting?
  • Nope
• Ener­gy sector
  • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing (com­pared to the pre­vi­ous week)?
    • US
      • 1 month
        • -8.25% to
        • -15.90%
      • 3 months
        • -18.55% to
        • -27.68%
      • YTD
        • -16.21% to
        • -24.06%
    • The Amer­i­c­as
      • 1 month
        • -8.03% to
        • -15.51%
      • 3 months
        • -17.35% to
        • -26.31%
      • YTD
        • -16.91% to
        • -24.32%
    • Europe
      • 1 month
        • -3.88% to
        • -7.11%
      • 3 months
        • -9.70% to
        • -15.87%
      • YTD
        • -5.24% to
        • -8.55%
    • Asia
      • 1 month
        • -4.61% to
        • -6.88%
      • 3 months
        • -14.07% to
        • -19.42%
      • YTD
        • -10.01% to
        • -13.92%
    • Mid­dle East / Africa
      • 1 month
        • -7.09% to
        • -7.19%
      • 3 months
        • -5.87% to
        • -8.72%
      • YTD
        • -5.41% to
        • -8.48%
• EURUSD
  • What is last week’s price range?
    • High    1.14848
    • low    1.13018
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 47.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 7.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 22.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 3.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 35.5% high­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-short sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to rise. Traders are fur­ther net-short than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bull­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
    • BULLISH BIAS
• Gold
  • What is last week’s price range?
    • High    1266.53
    • Low    1235.65
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 80.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.25 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.1% high­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 27.5% low­er than yes­ter­day and 20.5% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
    • STRONG BEARISH BIAS
• Geopol­i­tics
  • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?
    • Falling Oil Prices Threat­en Sau­di Eco­nom­ic Growth
      • In Octo­ber the IMF revised its fore­cast for Sau­di eco­nom­ic growth in 2018 and 2019, pre­dict­ing GDP would increase by 2.2 per­cent and 2.4 per­cent, respec­tive­ly, up on the 1.9 per­cent pre­vi­ous­ly pro­ject­ed for both years and a con­sid­er­able increase on a con­trac­tion of 0.9 per­cent in 2017.
      • The fund said the recov­ery was dri­ven by high­er ener­gy prices, which improved exter­nal bal­ances, along with reforms under­tak­en by the gov­ern­ment to increase domes­tic labour par­tic­i­pa­tion and strength­en the busi­ness environment.
    • U.S. envoy in fight against Islam­ic State quits after Syr­ia pullout
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — A top U.S. envoy lead­ing a glob­al coali­tion fight­ing Islam­ic State has quit over Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s deci­sion this week to pull U.S. troops out of Syr­ia, a source famil­iar with the mat­ter said on Saturday.
    • Inter­est Rate Hike Hits Oil Hard
      • Oil prices have been slammed over the past week, dragged down by a vari­ety of forces, includ­ing soar­ing U.S. shale pro­duc­tion, high­er-than-expect­ed out­put from Rus­sia, and wor­ries about glob­al demand. On Wednes­day, the U.S. Fed­er­al Reserve decid­ed to pile on.
    • Saud­is Announce High­est-Ever Bud­get Amid Price Slump
      • Sau­di Arabia’s King Salman has announced that the King­dom will spend 7 per­cent more next year, at around US$295 bil­lion (1.1 tril­lion riyals). This breaks the pre­vi­ous record set this year, with bud­get spend­ing at US$261 bil­lion and it might spark con­cerns about the economy’s sus­tain­abil­i­ty as the increase for next year includes a hefty bill for cost-of-liv­ing allowances intro­duced this year.
    • Qatar’s emir offers sup­port for Sudan: Sudan presidency
      • KHARTOUM (Reuters) — Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani called Sudanese Pres­i­dent Omar al-Bashir on Sat­ur­day to express his sup­port for Sudan after days of anti-gov­ern­ment protests, Bashir’s office said in a statement.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

Sources:

• https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
• https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
• https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
• https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
• https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
• https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
• https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
• https://www.bloomberg.com/energy