
23 Dec 12232018 Weekly Big Picture After A Big Drop Last week
12232018 Weekly Big Picture After A Big Drop Last week
This is part of my weekly preparation of my trading week to give me an idea on where I think the market stands.
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Reviewing the health progress
5 positive 1 negative | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23 | |
Beers night before | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
Hours sleep | 7.5 | 6+1 | 8.5 | 8 | 7.5 | 5 | 8 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 | 1 espresso real quick | 1 espresso real quick | 1 espresso real quick | 2 espresso real quick | 1 espresso spread over 1.5 hours |
Intermittent fasting | yes | no | no | no | no | no | no |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | no | no | no | no |
Time bed yesterday | 00:30 | 03:00 | 12:00 | 12:00 | 03:00 | 03:00 | 02:00 |
- How did you do the whole week?
- I am not doing well on the discipline with my sleeping routine. The factors that play a big role in this are the following (underneath are my proposed solutions and goals for next week):
- Social gatherings that include drinking alcohol
- This interferes with my sleeping routine on the weekend and spills over to the beginning of the week
- I will limit to social gatherings to one day. Friday or Saturday.
- This interferes with my sleeping routine on the weekend and spills over to the beginning of the week
- Business meetings that again include alcohol
- I don’t need to be there when we look at properties. My partners can handle the preliminary filtering of properties and in case of enough interest I can go have a look.
- Caffeine intake
- I am going to limit my caffeine intake to the weekends only
- Intermittent fasting
- When I fast and drink caffeine it has a bigger effect on me and thus is a dangerous combination. Luckily,I only fast during the week and since I won’t be drinking any caffeine during the week I won’t have to deal with this.
- Exercising
- I have to start exercising again and will at least do so 2 times a week.
- Social gatherings that include drinking alcohol
- I am not doing well on the discipline with my sleeping routine. The factors that play a big role in this are the following (underneath are my proposed solutions and goals for next week):
The Big Picture
- WTI
- What happened last week?
- When we look at the week as a whole we can see the bears were having a good week
- We had a high of 52.145 and a low of 45.179 and we closed near it’s low at 45.439
- We almost moved 700 ticks
- We started the week at the Weekly 1.0 SD and then dropped into the 2.0 SD at the end of the week in a move that it about the same size as 4 weeks prior when we dropped towards the 50 level
- Last week could be an exhausted move and see a reversal but since it is not longer as previous bars in the downtrend we had this last two months I am not overly confident that we will have a reversal at this level
- What is the supply and demand balance?
- Last week the API reported a build of 3.450M and the EIA had forecasted a draw of ‑2.437M but the ‘actual’ number was a draw of ‑0.497M
- So not too bullish reports and we saw the market reacting in a very bearish way
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
- Retail sentiment seems to be very bullish still
- What does investing.com state?
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 66% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- This week’s
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 57% bullish
- Last 3 days 52% bullish
- We can see from these numbers that bullishness has declined according to investing.com and sentiment seems to be more bearish
- But when considering that 90% or more of retailers lose money we could consider taking the opposite of their sentiment
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
- What is the Tick Volume showing?
- What happened last week?
Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | |
12/10 — 12/14 | 12/17/2018 | 12/18/2018 | 12/19/2018 | 12/20/2018 | 12/21/2018 | 12/17 — 12/21 | |
High | 53.455 | 52.145 | 49.9 | 48.369 | 47.543 | 46.816 | |
Low | 50.536 | 49.336 | 46.12 | 46.338 | 45.718 | 45.179 | |
Close | 51.449 | 49.458 | 46.247 | 47.423 | 46.243 | 45.439 | |
Pip move | 291.9 | 280.9 | 378 | 203.1 | 182.5 | 163.7 | |
PP | 51.813 | 50.313 | 47.422 | 47.377 | 46.501 | 45.811 | |
distance | 127.7 | 97.7 | 130.2 | 103.9 | 78.3 | 63.2 | |
R1 | 53.09 | 51.29 | 48.724 | 48.416 | 47.284 | 46.443 | |
distance | 291.9 | 280.9 | 378 | 203.1 | 182.5 | 163.7 | |
R2 | 54.732 | 53.122 | 51.202 | 49.408 | 48.326 | 47.448 | |
distance | -164.2 | -183.2 | -247.8 | -99.2 | -104.2 | -100.5 | |
S1 | 50.171 | 48.481 | 44.944 | 46.385 | 45.459 | 44.806 | |
distance | -291.9 | -280.9 | -378 | -203.1 | -182.5 | -163.7 | |
S2 | 48.894 | 47.504 | 43.642 | 45.346 | 44.676 | 44.174 | |
TV | 308,330 | 54,218 | 72,306 | 72,350 | 80,893 | 72,030 | |
50MA | 59.833 | 59.267 | 58.766 | 58.273 | 57.775 | ||
200MA | 66.075 | 65.999 | 65.932 | 65.859 | 65.78 |
- TV has increased a little bit in comparison to last week so we might be seeing more disagreement coming in but that doesn’t mean we are close to a reversal but we are nearing the area where traders are considering change in the market
- What are the most important technical levels in the market?
- Pivot levels
- When we look at the weekly PP levels we can see that we doubled the distance of S and R levels so we left the squeeze phase and have moved, which we can also see in the price drop of last week
- When we look at the Daily levels we can see that we have done the opposite and thus might see a squeeze coming
- When we look at the weekly PP levels we can see that we doubled the distance of S and R levels so we left the squeeze phase and have moved, which we can also see in the price drop of last week
- Daily chart
- Moving Averages
- We can see that we are still ways away from the 50MA 57.775 and 200MA 65.78 levels
- On the daily chart we can see that in the last week we hit the VWAP mean and then dropped to the 2.0 SD crossing the Weekly 47.50 level and found ‘temporary’ support at the Daily level of 45.10
- 4H chart
- On the 4H chart we can see that we followed the VWAP mean down and have hit the squeeze of the bands
- It looks like there might be some more downside before we go up since the moves are all fairly small
- On the 4H chart we can see that we followed the VWAP mean down and have hit the squeeze of the bands
- Moving Averages
- Pivot levels
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | Daily | 49.8 | 436.1 |
R5 | WPP | 47.588 | 214.9 |
R4 | Weekly | 47.5 | 206.1 |
R3 | DR2 | 47.448 | 200.9 |
R2 | DR1 | 46.443 | 100.4 |
R1 | DPP | 45.811 | 37.2 |
CURRENT | 45.439 | ||
S1 | Daily | 45.1 | -33.9 |
S2 | DS1 | 44.806 | -63.3 |
S3 | DS2 | 44.174 | -126.5 |
S4 | WS1 | 43.031 | -240.8 |
S5 | Weekly | 42.9 | -253.9 |
S6 | WS2 | 40.622 | -481.7 |
- Is the market trending up or down?
- Down
- We are more in line with the 4H 50MA
- Down
- Is there an OPEC meeting?
- Nope
- Energy sector
- How is the sector as a whole doing (compared to the previous week)?
- US
- 1 month
- -8.25% to
- -15.90%
- 3 months
- -18.55% to
- -27.68%
- YTD
- -16.21% to
- -24.06%
- 1 month
- The Americas
- 1 month
- -8.03% to
- -15.51%
- 3 months
- -17.35% to
- -26.31%
- YTD
- -16.91% to
- -24.32%
- 1 month
- Europe
- 1 month
- -3.88% to
- -7.11%
- 3 months
- -9.70% to
- -15.87%
- YTD
- -5.24% to
- -8.55%
- 1 month
- Asia
- 1 month
- -4.61% to
- -6.88%
- 3 months
- -14.07% to
- -19.42%
- YTD
- -10.01% to
- -13.92%
- 1 month
- Middle East / Africa
- 1 month
- -7.09% to
- -7.19%
- 3 months
- -5.87% to
- -8.72%
- YTD
- -5.41% to
- -8.48%
- 1 month
- US
- How is the sector as a whole doing (compared to the previous week)?
- EURUSD
- What is last week’s price range?
- High 1.14848
- low 1.13018
- What is the market sentiment?
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 47.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.7% lower than yesterday and 22.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 35.5% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
- BULLISH BIAS
- What is last week’s price range?
- Gold
- What is last week’s price range?
- High 1266.53
- Low 1235.65
- What is the market sentiment?
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 80.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.25 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 27.5% lower than yesterday and 20.5% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- STRONG BEARISH BIAS
- What is last week’s price range?
- Geopolitics
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
- Falling Oil Prices Threaten Saudi Economic Growth
- In October the IMF revised its forecast for Saudi economic growth in 2018 and 2019, predicting GDP would increase by 2.2 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, up on the 1.9 percent previously projected for both years and a considerable increase on a contraction of 0.9 percent in 2017.
- The fund said the recovery was driven by higher energy prices, which improved external balances, along with reforms undertaken by the government to increase domestic labour participation and strengthen the business environment.
- U.S. envoy in fight against Islamic State quits after Syria pullout
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) — A top U.S. envoy leading a global coalition fighting Islamic State has quit over President Donald Trump’s decision this week to pull U.S. troops out of Syria, a source familiar with the matter said on Saturday.
- Interest Rate Hike Hits Oil Hard
- Oil prices have been slammed over the past week, dragged down by a variety of forces, including soaring U.S. shale production, higher-than-expected output from Russia, and worries about global demand. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to pile on.
- Saudis Announce Highest-Ever Budget Amid Price Slump
- Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has announced that the Kingdom will spend 7 percent more next year, at around US$295 billion (1.1 trillion riyals). This breaks the previous record set this year, with budget spending at US$261 billion and it might spark concerns about the economy’s sustainability as the increase for next year includes a hefty bill for cost-of-living allowances introduced this year.
- Qatar’s emir offers support for Sudan: Sudan presidency
- KHARTOUM (Reuters) — Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani called Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on Saturday to express his support for Sudan after days of anti-government protests, Bashir’s office said in a statement.
- Falling Oil Prices Threaten Saudi Economic Growth
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
Sources:
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
- https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
- https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
- https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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