12242018 Trade Plan — Christmas Eve low liquidity - Bear Market Trader
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12242018 Trade Plan — Christmas Eve low liquidity

Daily Report Card

12242018 Trade Plan — Christmas Eve low liquidity

12242018 Trade Plan — Christ­mas Eve low liquidity

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon
Beers night before3610210
Hours sleep87.5586
Sleep well?32121
Neg­a­tive thoughts?11112
Exer­cise yester(to)day11111
Cof­fees today1 espres­so real quick1 espres­so real quick2 espres­so real quick1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours0
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonononono
Water 2.2L bottles21121
Time bed yesterday12:0003:0003:0002:0002:30

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Late­ly, I’ve been eat­ing more and sure the hol­i­days around for me to blame but it is also a lack of discipline.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel tired because I had a late night last night hav­ing a Christ­mas din­ner includ­ing lots of food and alcohol.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • WTI
    • What hap­pened last week?
      • When we look at the week as a whole we can see the bears were hav­ing a good week
      • We had a high of 52.145 and a low of 45.179 and we closed near it’s low at 45.439
        • We almost moved 700 ticks
      • We start­ed the week at the Week­ly 1.0 SD and then dropped into the 2.0 SD at the end of the week in a move that it about the same size as 4 weeks pri­or when we dropped towards the 50 level
        • Last week could be an exhaust­ed move and see a rever­sal but since it is not longer as pre­vi­ous bars in the down­trend we had this last two months I am not over­ly con­fi­dent that we will have a rever­sal at this level
    • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
      • Last week the API report­ed a build of 3.450M and the EIA had fore­cast­ed a draw of ‑2.437M but the ‘actu­al’ num­ber was a draw of ‑0.497M
      • So not too bull­ish reports and we saw the mar­ket react­ing in a very bear­ish way
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?
        • Retail sen­ti­ment seems to be very bull­ish still
      • What does state?
        • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 66% bullish
          • Last 3 days 65% bullish
        • This week’s
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 57% bullish
          • Last 3 days 52% bullish
        • We can see from these num­bers that bull­ish­ness has declined accord­ing to and sen­ti­ment seems to be more bearish
          • But when con­sid­er­ing that 90% or more of retail­ers lose mon­ey we could con­sid­er tak­ing the oppo­site of their sentiment
    • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?
12/10 — 12/1412/17/201812/18/201812/19/201812/20/201812/21/201812/17 — 12/21
Pip move291.9280.9378203.1182.5163.7
  • TV has increased a lit­tle bit in com­par­i­son to last week so we might be see­ing more dis­agree­ment com­ing in but that doesn’t mean we are close to a rever­sal but we are near­ing the area where traders are con­sid­er­ing change in the market
  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
    • Piv­ot levels
      • When we look at the week­ly PP lev­els we can see that we dou­bled the dis­tance of S and R lev­els so we left the squeeze phase and have moved, which we can also see in the price drop of last week
        • When we look at the Dai­ly lev­els we can see that we have done the oppo­site and thus might see a squeeze coming
    • Dai­ly chart
      • Mov­ing Averages
        • We can see that we are still ways away from the 50MA 57.775 and 200MA 65.78 levels
      • On the dai­ly chart we can see that in the last week we hit the VWAP mean and then dropped to the 2.0 SD cross­ing the Week­ly 47.50 lev­el and found ‘tem­po­rary’ sup­port at the Dai­ly lev­el of 45.10
      • 4H chart
        • On the 4H chart we can see that we fol­lowed the VWAP mean down and have hit the squeeze of the bands 
          • It looks like there might be some more down­side before we go up since the moves are all fair­ly small
  • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
    • Down
      • We are more in line with the 4H 50MA

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
    • Gold Prices Ris­es as U.S. Dol­lar Slips; Polit­i­cal Risk in Focus
    • Euro, yen gain as U.S. polit­i­cal uncer­tain­ty weighs on dollar
      • LONDON (Reuters) — The euro and the Japan­ese yen gained in thin trad­ing on Mon­day as con­cerns about a par­tial U.S. gov­ern­ment shut­down weighed on investor sen­ti­ment and the dol­lar, although Chi­nese plans to cut tar­iffs on a range of goods helped to lift the mood.
    • The Key Swing Pro­duc­er Behind The OPEC+ Deal
      • Rus­sia con­tin­ues to be the key part­ner of OPEC and its largest pro­duc­er Sau­di Ara­bia in man­ag­ing the oil mar­ket. For a sec­ond pro­duc­tion cut deal in a row, Moscow joined the cartel’s cuts, tak­ing the lion’s share of the cuts intend­ed for the non-OPEC mem­bers of the pact.
    • Trump talks to Turkey leader about ‘slow’ Syr­ia troop withdrawal
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump said on Sun­day he spoke with Turk­ish Pres­i­dent Tayyip Erdo­gan about “a slow and high­ly coor­di­nat­ed” with­draw­al of U.S. troops from Syr­ia, a deci­sion that sparked crit­i­cism from U.S. law­mak­ers, includ­ing fel­low Republicans.
    • Advance U.N. truce mon­i­tors arrive in Yemen’s Hodeidah
      • UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) — A U.N. advance team arrived in Yemen’s port city of Hodei­dah on Sun­day to start mon­i­tor­ing a cease­fire and with­draw­al of forces agreed by the Iran­ian-aligned Houthi group and Sau­di-backed gov­ern­ment forces, the Unit­ed Nations said.
    • Turkey bol­sters mil­i­tary on Syr­i­an bor­der as U.S. read­ies pull-out
      • The height­ened mil­i­tary activ­i­ty comes two days after Pres­i­dent Tayyip Erdo­gan said Turkey would post­pone a planned mil­i­tary oper­a­tion on Kur­dish YPG mili­tia east of the Euphrates riv­er in north­ern Syr­ia fol­low­ing the U.S. deci­sion to pull out.

Trade Plan

  • Wait for a con­flu­ence of 30M and 5M crit­i­cal area com­bi­na­tion + PB setup

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
    • Be extra careful
  • Only take PB trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • After we opened it looked like we reject­ed the 45.75 lev­el but we didn’t and actu­al­ly inched lower
    • T1
      • Loss 17 ticks
    • T2
      • Win 8 ticks
    • Spread is still wider than usu­al. Prob­a­bly because of the hol­i­days. I don’t think I’ll be tak­en any oth­er trades today. 
    • Noth­ing much going on
    • We had a KC VWAP diver­gence and then dropped to the 30M LKC
      • It was quite a drop of at least 60 ticks

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • Bull­ish can­dle on 5M in the 2.0 SD + out­side the LKC
        • Entry
          • 45.837
    • SL
      • 45.619
    • TP
      • 46.078
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Closed it at 45.672 at a 17 tick loss
      • I real­ized we had crossed the 30M VWAP mean and thus shouldn’t have tak­en a long posi­tion but should have looked at a short opportunity 
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • 2x 5M rejec­tion can­dles at the 45.35 level
        • 1.5 SD on the 30M at the bot­tom of the range of the last few 30M swings
        • Spreads are around 34
        • Entry
          • 45.465 & 45.534
    • SL
      • 45.331
        • Just a few ticks under the two rejec­tion candles
    • TP
      • 45.814
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I noticed I had only take a 1 micro lot con­tract and I am allowed to do 2 so took anoth­er one at a less favor­able price though. I expect­ed a big­ger move to hap­pen rel­a­tive­ly fast so I cov­ered just above the 5M VWAP mean
        • Close at
          • 45.539 win 7 ticks
          • 45.672 win 1 tick
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • We hit the 30M LKC and dropped beyond it but got pushed back hard
        • Then on the 5M we moved back from the 2.0 SD to the 1 SD and crossed the 5MA so went long at
          • Entry
            • 45.063
    • SL
      • 44.690
        • Few ticks below the pre­vi­ous big drop
    • TP
      • 45.202
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • PA seems to be hug­ging the 5MA and doesn’t look like it’s going to BO 
      • We seem to have stayed with­in the 1.0 SD on the 5M but lack any con­vic­tion that we will move up
      • This is not good. Didn’t even notice we passed the 9pm mark and I am def­i­nite­ly not sharp today. I haven’t closed off my posi­tion since it is still show­ing a pos­si­bil­i­ty to go my way as we just moved high­er. I have a hard stop in place and I have a soft stop at 44.80 lev­el that I feel is valid to dis­prove my position. 
      • I closed it at almost break break even
        • Cov­ered at 45.058
  • T4

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I stayed with my last trade too long and this is some­thing that nor­mal­ly shows that I am not fol­low­ing my plan. Def­i­nite­ly also when I haven’t closed off my trade before NY open which I am now 1 hour into. 

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades
    • I did
  • Only take PB trades
    • I did only take PB setups but I should have got­ten out faster. Cut loss­es short quickly.
    • I should not trade when I am this tired. THE END. 


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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