12252018 Closed for Christmas

25 Dec 12252018 Closed for Christmas

12252018 Closed for Christmas

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I am feel­ing full all the time since I have been eat­ing a lot. I am giv­ing myself a break from being to crit­i­cal on this point since I know that I will get back on track next week. Although that doesn’t mean I should not pay atten­tion to it at all. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel bet­ter. Still not too sharp since I had to catch up on sleep a bit but then I feel grog­gy because I slept longer than I should. I think it’ll be bet­ter tomor­row though.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Yes­ter­day before the Lon­don ses­sion start­ed we had a swing rever­sal dur­ing the AS that bounced off the 46.25 lev­el and we then ducked under­neath the 30M VWAP mean and 50MA. Which then set the tone for the rest of the ses­sion ie. downtrend.
  • We end­ed the day just above the DS2 47.174 lev­el at 44.363

Intra­day Fundamentals

• Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
  • Mnuchin’s Bizarre State­ment Rat­tles Markets
    • Over the week­end, U.S. Trea­sury Sec­re­tary Steven Mnuchin issued a state­ment say­ing that he “con­duct­ed a series of calls today with the CEOS of the nations six largest banks,” which includ­ed Bank of Amer­i­ca, Citi, Gold­man Sachs, JPMor­gan Chase, Mor­gan Stan­ley and Wells Far­go, and the bank exec­u­tives “con­firmed that they have ample liq­uid­i­ty avail­able” for con­sumer and busi­ness lend­ing oper­a­tions. To which, the col­lec­tive response from the whole world seemed to be: “Wait, who said any­thing about not hav­ing ample liquidity?”
    • Mnuchin also said that the major banks “have not expe­ri­enced any clear­ance or mar­gin issues and that the mar­kets con­tin­ue to func­tion prop­er­ly.” Again, since few expect­ed oth­er­wise, the “clar­i­fi­ca­tion” from Mnuchin only seemed to sow more fear and confusion.
  • Argus Remains Bull­ish On Oil As Prices Plunge Below $45
    • Although the oil mar­ket will remain over­sup­plied in the first quar­ter of 2019, the OPEC+ pro­duc­er cuts will start to work in the sec­ond quar­ter and grad­u­al­ly rebal­ance the mar­ket to the point of Brent Crude hit­ting $80 a bar­rel in Q4 2019, accord­ing to ener­gy infor­ma­tion provider Argus Media.
  • The Bat­tle For Syria’s Oil Region
    • The Syr­i­an Civ­il War has gone through sev­er­al phas­es over the course of sev­en years and it now appears to be enter­ing anoth­er one. Gov­ern­ment forces have regained con­trol over much of Syr­ia with Russ­ian air sup­port and Iran­ian ground forces. Only Idlib and the ter­ri­to­ries east of the Euphrates riv­er remain out of the hands of Pres­i­dent Assad’s regime. With the U.S. plan­ning an immi­nent with­draw­al from Syr­ia, things could soon shift again.
  • Trump calls Fed ‘only prob­lem’ in U.S. econ­o­my; mar­kets slump
    • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump blast­ed the Fed­er­al Reserve on Mon­day, describ­ing it as the “only prob­lem” for the U.S. econ­o­my, as top offi­cials con­vened to dis­cuss the grow­ing rout in stock mar­kets caused in part by the pres­i­den­t’s attacks on the cen­tral bank.
  • Gold Up 1% , Boost­ed by US Govt Shut­down, Mnuchin Move on Banks
    • Investing.com — The par­tial U.S. gov­ern­ment shut­down and grow­ing wor­ries of a glob­al reces­sion seem to be tak­ing gold slow­ly but more sure­ly toward the $1,300 per ounce lev­el tar­get­ed by pre­cious met­als bulls.
  • Exxon­Mo­bil Faces Off With Venezuela’s Navy
    • Exxon has sus­pend­ed explo­ration activ­i­ties in the west­ern part of the Stabroek block off­shore Guyana after the Venezue­lan Navy inter­cept­ed this week­end two explorato­ry ves­sels in what Cara­cas claimed was Venezue­lan waters, Reuters reports, cit­ing Guyana’s For­eign Ministry.
  • Trump, Democ­rats spar over shut­down with no deal in sight
    • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump and top Democ­rats in Con­gress sparred over the par­tial shut­down of the U.S. gov­ern­ment on Mon­day, with no sign of tan­gi­ble efforts to reopen agen­cies closed by a polit­i­cal impasse over Trump’s demand for bor­der wall funds.
• Addi­tion­al OPEC news
  • OPEC Pre­pared To Call ‘Extra­or­di­nary Meet­ing’ As Oil Falls

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.