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12262018 Trade Plan — 2nd Xmas day — gap down and accumulation and markup

Daily Report Card

12262018 Trade Plan — 2nd Xmas day — gap down and accumulation and markup

12262018 Trade Plan — 2nd Xmas day — gap down and accu­mu­la­tion and markup

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFriSatSunMonTueWednes­day
12/2112/2212/2312/2412/25121/26
Beers night before61021003 glass­es of wine
Hours sleep7.558698
Sleep well?212131
Mela­tonin000000.5 x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?111213
Exer­cise yester(to)day111111
Grat­i­tude555454
Joy555454
Anger111111
Fear111111
Focus223122
Cof­fees today1 espres­so real quick2 espres­so real quick1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours01 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fastingnononononoyes
Water 2.2L bottles112122
Vit­a­minsnononoyesyesyes
Time bed yesterday03:0003:0002:0002:3010:3011:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I feel a bit sick­ish. I wake up with a cough and go to bed with a cough. I’ll drink more water and take some rest.
  • How do you feel?
    • I didn’t sleep too well last night so I don’t feel too sharp. I went to bed ear­ly but couldn’t fall asleep so took a pill. That pill will have some effect today as well. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day the mar­ket was closed because of Christ­mas day so I will refer to the day before, Decem­ber 24th as my point of reference
    • We inched low­er on the dai­ly chart and are still with­in the 1.5 and 2.0 SD
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 54% bullish
        • Last 3 days 54% bullish
        • Bull­ish­ness has def­i­nite­ly dropped but since this is the sen­ti­ment on the retail lev­el we could per­haps assume the oppo­site of this
  • EURUSD
    • Dec. 25th
      • High     1.14183
      • Low    1.13678
      • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 47.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 7.7% low­er than yes­ter­day and 22.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 3.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 35.5% high­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-short sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to rise. Traders are fur­ther net-short than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bull­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
      • BULLISH BIAS
  • Gold
    • Dec. 24th
      • High    1270.52
      • Low     1255.72
      • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 80.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.25 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.1% high­er than yes­ter­day and 3.1% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 27.5% low­er than yes­ter­day and 20.5% low­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
      • STRONG BEARISH BIAS

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • The API report will come out lat­er today so I will incor­po­rate it into my trad­ing plan tomor­row since it doesn’t affect my trad­ing today directly
  • EIA report
    • The EIA report will come out on Fri­day, Decem­ber 28th
  • Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
    • Stocks under a cloud as U.S. polit­i­cal tumult adds to growth anxiety
      • Slow­ing glob­al eco­nom­ic growth
      • Trump’s hos­tile stance toward the Fed­er­al Reserve chairman
      • U.S. Trea­sury Sec­re­tary Steven Mnuchin had also raised mar­ket con­cerns by con­ven­ing a cri­sis group amid the pull­back in stocks.
    • Dol­lar under pres­sure as U.S. pol­i­tics, Fed wor­ries weigh
      • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — The dol­lar was broad­ly low­er on Wednes­day, pres­sured by a cock­tail of neg­a­tive fac­tors includ­ing height­ened con­cerns over the par­tial U.S. gov­ern­ment shut­down and ten­sion between the White House and the Fed­er­al Reserve.
    • Turkey Stands Firm­ly Against U.S. Sanc­tions On Iran
      • Fol­low­ing Wednes­day’s unex­pect­ed and dra­mat­ic full and “imme­di­ate” with­draw­al of all U.S. forces from Syr­ia, Turkey has announced it will not play ball on Iran sanc­tions. Accord­ing to a trans­la­tion of the Turk­ish pres­i­den­t’s words on Thurs­day dur­ing a pre­vi­ous­ly planned sum­mit with Iran­ian Pres­i­dent Has­san Rouhani in Ankara, jour­nal­ist Abdul­lah Bozkurt reports, “Turk­ish pres­i­dent Erdo­gan says Turkey won’t sup­port U.S. sanc­tions on Iran which he claims puts region­al secu­ri­ty and sta­bil­i­ty at risk, vows to take all mea­sures to min­i­mize impact of sanc­tions on trade between the two coun­tries, pledges sup­port to Iran in dif­fi­cult times.”
    • Syr­ia state media says Israeli planes attack tar­gets near Damascus
      • BEIRUT (Reuters) — Israeli war planes attacked with mis­siles unspec­i­fied tar­gets near Dam­as­cus, the Syr­i­an cap­i­tal, on Tues­day and injured three Syr­i­an sol­diers, Syr­i­an state media quot­ed a mil­i­tary source as saying.
    • British pro­fes­sor returns to UK after deten­tion in Iran: BBC
      • LONDON (Reuters) — A British-Iran­ian aca­d­e­m­ic who had been detained in Iran on secu­ri­ty charges has returned to the Unit­ed King­dom, the BBC report­ed on Tuesday.
    • Syr­i­an army rein­forced close to front with Turk­ish-backed forces
      • BEIRUT (Reuters) — Syr­i­an gov­ern­ment troops backed by Russ­ian forces have sent extra troops toward the city of Man­bij in coor­di­na­tion with the mili­tia that con­trols it, a mili­tia spokesman said, as Turk­ish-backed Syr­i­an rebels said they were prepar­ing to attack it.
    • Ger­man police find Islam­ic State flag after sus­pect­ed attack on railway
      • BERLIN (Reuters) — Ger­man police said on Tues­day they had found a flag of the Islam­ic State (IS) mil­i­tant group near the site of a sus­pect­ed attack on a rail­way track in Berlin and that inves­ti­ga­tors were exam­in­ing whether the per­pe­tra­tors had any polit­i­cal motives.
    • U.S.-led coali­tion reports recent air strikes on ISIS in Syria
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The U.S.-led coali­tion in Syr­ia con­duct­ed air strikes last week that destroyed facil­i­ties used by Islam­ic State, the coali­tion said on Tues­day, less than a week after Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump declared vic­to­ry over the mil­i­tant group and said he would with­draw U.S. troops from the war-torn country.
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • OPEC might have an emer­gency meeting

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

TueWedThuFriWeekMonTue
12/18/201812/19/201812/20/201812/21/201812/17 — 12/2112/2412/25
High49.948.36947.54346.81652.14546.287
Low46.1246.33845.71845.17945.17944.169
Close46.24747.42346.24345.43945.43944.363
Pip move378203.1182.5163.7696.6211.8
PP47.42247.37746.50145.81147.58844.94
dis­tance130.2103.978.363.2240.977.1
R148.72448.41647.28446.44349.99745.711
dis­tance378203.1182.5163.7696.6211.8
R251.20249.40848.32647.44854.55447.058
dis­tance-247.8-99.2-104.2-100.5-455.7-134.7
S144.94446.38545.45944.80643.03143.593
dis­tance-378-203.1-182.5-163.7-696.6-211.8
S243.64245.34644.67644.17440.62242.822
TV72,30672,35080,89372,030351,79742,179
50MA59.26758.76658.27357.77557.212
200MA65.99965.93265.85965.7865.69
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • We can see that we dropped quite a bit since one week prior
    • We can see that the lev­els have expand­ed a lit­tle bit in com­par­i­son with last Friday
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • When we look at the Week­ly chart we can see that we dropped to the 42.90 lev­el which is a cru­cial lev­el since we bounced off this lev­el before at
      • Jan­u­ary 2009
      • March 2015
      • We ducked under­neath it Decem­ber 2015 till April 2016
      • July 2016
      • July 2017
    • So we can expect more ‘eyes’ on the mar­ket at this lev­el and let’s wait and see how this devel­ops. It could very well be that a lot of bulls will get in at this level.
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • We’re under the 200MA and 50MA
      • Way under
        • So we might see a rever­sion to mean
    • Last Mon­day we broke the 45.10 level
    • We are now at the 42.90 lev­el which is a cru­cial level
      • On the sup­port side we have DS2 42.822 giv­ing sup­port as well
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
S/Rkindlev­elDis­tance
R6DR247.058420.5
R5DR145.711285.8
R44H45.1224.7
R3DPP44.94208.7
R2DS143.59374
R1WS143.03117.8
CURRENT42.853
S1Dai­ly42.94.7
S2DS242.822-3.1
S3WS240.622-223.1
S4Dai­ly39.25-360.3
S5Week­ly37.81-504.3
S6Month­ly26.08-1677.3
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We gapped down today on the Asian open to the 42.90 lev­el so we should wait and see if we can hold this level
    • The 30M chart might show some accu­mu­la­tion phase price behaviour
      • The rea­son why I am say­ing this is because I am read­ing the book ‘The Art & Sci­ence of Tech­ni­cal Analy­sis: Mar­ket Struc­ture, Price Action & Trad­ing Strate­gies’ by Adam Grimes
        • And in this book he refers to the 4 dif­fer­ent stages of the mar­ket and in the accu­mu­la­tion phase you can see long wicked bars at a cru­cial sup­port lev­el as an indi­ca­tor of this phase. Anoth­er indi­ca­tor is that price will move slow­ly which it is doing right now (keep in mind we are also in the AS so that is usu­al­ly slower)
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.4275
        • About the same lev­el which per­haps a slight decrease

Trade Plan

  • Let’s wait how the 2nd Christ­mas Day is going to affect the mar­ket today
  • If we are in the accu­mu­la­tion phase it might be hard to trade off this lev­el. How­ev­er, I’ll be look­ing for a con­fir­ma­tion of a rejec­tion of the 42.90 lev­el and go long
    • This rejec­tion would have to be a move down on the 5M into 2.0 SD and below the LKC and into the 30M 1.5 or 2.0 SD in com­bi­na­tion with a rever­sal can­dle for me to get in long. This could be a great opportunity
  • If the mar­ket decides we have a bit more down­side upon us then I’d be look­ing for a break of the 42.90 lev­el after per­haps a move up over the UKC and into the 2.0 SD which could be the 1.0 SD on the 30M as well with a rever­sal can­dle on that side show­ing weak­ness in buy­ing pres­sure and com­mence the rollover and head down.
    • Anoth­er sce­nario might be a squeeze on the 5M with a BD and to LKC with con­tin­u­a­tion of the move then I’ll be short­ing at pull­backs to MAs
    • The same can be said but invert­ed on the upside.

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
  • Only take PB setups

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Before Lon­don open dur­ing the AS we have only ranged in a squeeze (PA was basi­cal­ly flat)
    • The main mar­kets aren’t open today so don’t expect any­thing from the mar­kets today. The spreads are high­er than usu­al which is to be expected.
      • The only ones that are open now are the 
        • RTS     Russ­ian Trad­ing System
        • DIFX    Dubai Inter­na­tion­al Finan­cial Exchange
        • NSE    Nation­al Stock Exchange of India
    • We made an effort to break­out from the inter­sec­tion of 
      • 30M VWAP mean
      • WS1 43.031
      • 30M S/R lev­el 43 level
      • I am not too com­fort­able to go long here even though I think I should
        • I feel more com­fort­able if I can see a hold­ing of the resis­tance lev­el and thus have a set­up for a swing rever­sal play
    • Also the spread is still around 34 with some jumps to 40
      • Also we are enter­ing the tight­en­ing of the VWAP bands on the 30M so that is anoth­er lev­el of resis­tance we have
        • Let’s wait and see if we can break that level
    • Looks like accu­mu­la­tion on the 30M but looks like dis­tri­b­u­tion on the 5M so let’s see what’s up
    • It looks like we broke through the 43 level
      • We made a fake rever­sal back into the KC and then spiked up. I was think­ing to go long here but I am not feel­ing very sharp today so I’m extra cau­tious. I want to doc­u­ment this sit­u­a­tion so that I could per­haps trade it in the future.
    • NEWS
      • Pri­vate buy­ers of Iran crude had no prob­lems export­ing it: oil minister
        • Iran began sell­ing crude oil to pri­vate com­pa­nies for export in late Octo­ber, just ahead of U.S. sanc­tions on sec­tors includ­ing oil which came into effect on Nov. 5.
    • T1
      • Win 5 ticks

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • UKC BO continuation
      • Price dropped to UKC and I took a long position
      • Since I am not too com­fort­able with con­tin­u­a­tion movers I took a tiny position
        • Entry
          • 43.255
    • SL
      • 42.938
        • Just at the bot­tom of the upthrust can­dle (is this the upthrust can­dle by Weikoff?)
    • TP
      • 43.747
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • We dropped back to the UKC and might be going against me. I have my hard stop in place
      • Cov­ered at 43.306 for a 5 tick profit

  • T2
    • NOT TAKEN
  • T3
    • NOT TAKEN
  • T4
    • NOT TAKEN

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I am focused on just tak­ing my PB setups and let­ting trades ride out is a goal for anoth­er time

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades
    • Only took 1 trade
  • Only take PB setups
    • Yes I did.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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