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12282018 Trade Plan — Scalping to BREAK EVEN

Daily Report Card

12282018 Trade Plan — Scalping to BREAK EVEN

12282018 Trade Plan — Scalp­ing to BREAK EVEN

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSunMonTueWedThuFri
    12/2312/2412/2512/2612/2712/28
Beers night before21003 glass­es of wine40
Hours sleep869888.5
Sleep well?213122
Mela­tonin0000.5 x00
Neg­a­tive thoughts?121312
Exer­cise yester(to)day111111
Grat­i­tude545455
Joy545455
Anger111111
Fear111111
Focus312222
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours01 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fastingnononoyesyesno
Water 2.2L bottles212222
Vit­a­minsnoyesyesyesyesyes
Time bed yesterday02:0002:3010:3011:0011:0010:30

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I am get­ting more sleep so that’s good. I am also try­ing to fast more often, but I should find a sched­ule and fol­low it. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel OK. Have had enough sleep but late­ly I’ve had trou­ble falling asleep. It might be the caf­feine, but not sure about that. Because some days I don’t have this prob­lem. I’ll pay more atten­tion to it.
    • I’ve had a few cringes today so it’s best to be extra care­ful today. Good thing that I already decid­ed yes­ter­day to go back down in lev­el to con­ser­v­a­tive sizing.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • On the Dai­ly we can see that we pulled back to the 1.5 SD and then reject­ed it
    • On the 4H we can see that this lev­el is inside the KC and above the 4H VWAP mean but we also reject­ed the Dai­ly 46.25 lev­el as resis­tance so we might set up to range between 46.25 and 44.80
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 54% bullish
        • Last 3 days 54% bullish
        • Bull­ish­ness has def­i­nite­ly dropped but since this is the sen­ti­ment on the retail lev­el we could per­haps assume the oppo­site of this
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 55% bullish
        • Last 3 days 57% bullish
        • Sen­ti­ment is a lit­tle more bull­ish than before
  • EURUSD
    • High 1.14537
    • Low 1.13501
    • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 7.8% low­er than yes­ter­day and 1.2% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 8.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 20.7% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-short sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to rise. Posi­tion­ing is more net-short than yes­ter­day but less net-short from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
    • MIXED BIAS
  • Gold
    • High 1278.94
    • Low 1266.85
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.0% high­er than yes­ter­day and 15.0% high­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yes­ter­day and com­pared with last week. Recent changes in sen­ti­ment warn that the cur­rent Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse high­er despite the fact traders remain net-long.
    • BULLISH BIAS despite Net-Long positions

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Sur­prise Inven­to­ry Build Sends Oil Prices Lower
      • The Amer­i­can Petro­le­um Insti­tute (API) report­ed a sur­prise crude oil inven­to­ry build of 6.9 mil­lion bar­rels for the week end­ing Decem­ber 21, com­pared to ana­lyst expec­ta­tions that we would see a draw in crude oil inven­to­ries of 2.869 mil­lion bar­rels. The sur­prise build will like­ly push oil prices fur­ther down, con­tin­u­ing the see­saw prices of the Christ­mas week.
  • EIA report
    • Fore­cast is a draw of 2.869M but API came out with a build of 6.9M so let’s see what EIA comes out with today
  • Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
    • Wall Street roars back late to keep ral­ly going
      • (Reuters) — U.S. stocks roared back to end in pos­i­tive ter­ri­to­ry on Thurs­day fol­low­ing steep loss­es for much of the ses­sion, as equi­ties rebound­ed for a sec­ond day.
    • Wall Street Sees Oil Price Recov­ery In 2019
      • Invest­ment banks have had to recal­i­brate their oil price fore­casts for next year after prices plunged by more than a third from ear­ly-Octo­ber highs.
    • OPEC+ Will Not Be Formalized
      • OPEC and Rus­sia-led non-OPEC oil pro­duc­ers are high­ly unlike­ly to cre­ate some kind of a for­mal joint orga­ni­za­tion for man­ag­ing the oil mar­ket, due to the addi­tion­al bureau­cra­cy and to the risk of falling prey to a pro­posed U.S. leg­is­la­tion that could open the car­tel and allies to antitrust law­suits, Russia’s Ener­gy Min­is­ter Alexan­der Novak said on Thursday.
    • Asian Mar­kets Rise After Tur­bu­lent Ses­sion on Wall Street
      • Investing.com — Asian mar­kets rose in morn­ing trade on Fri­day after U.S. stocks closed in pos­i­tive ter­ri­to­ry fol­low­ing a tur­bu­lent ses­sion that saw the Dow plunge more than 600 points at one point.
    • Oil prices jump, but over­sup­ply wor­ries persist
      • SEOUL (Reuters) — Oil prices jumped as much as 3 per­cent on Fri­day to win back a chunk of the ground they lost in the pre­vi­ous ses­sion, but growth in U.S. crude stock­piles and ongo­ing con­cerns about the glob­al econ­o­my kept mar­kets under pressure.
    • More Amer­i­cans blame Trump for gov­ern­ment shut­down: Reuters/Ipsos poll
      • NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) — More Amer­i­cans blame Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump than con­gres­sion­al Democ­rats for the par­tial U.S. gov­ern­ment shut­down, accord­ing to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thurs­day, as the clo­sure stretched into its sixth day with no end in sight.
    • Venezuela: A Real Threat To Guyana’s Oil Boom
      • Last Fri­day, the Guyanese gov­ern­ment fell after a no-con­fi­dence vote, a move that like­ly was viewed as an oppor­tune moment of weak­ness in Caracas.
      • A day lat­er, Venezuela’s navy approached two Nor­we­gian ves­sels con­duct­ing seis­mic work in Guyanese waters on Decem­ber 22, forc­ing the ships to flee to safer waters. The ships, under con­tract by Exxon­Mo­bil, are sur­vey­ing the area and work­ing to devel­op mas­sive oil dis­cov­er­ies that could trans­form Guyana.
    • U.S. stock funds attract cash for first time in six weeks: Lipper
      • NEW YORK (Reuters) — U.S. fund investors eased into wild stock mar­kets dur­ing the lat­est week, adding $5.2 bil­lion, accord­ing to Lip­per data on Thurs­day that reflect­ed the first net pos­i­tive flows for funds since Decem­ber’s sell­off began.
    • Investors Are More Wary of Trump Than of Wall Street
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • Nope

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

     ThuFriWeekMonTueWedThu
      12/2012/2112/17 — 12/2112/2412/2512/2612/27
High47.54346.81652.14546.287047.06446.79
Low45.71845.17945.17944.169042.60344.448
Close46.24345.43945.43944.363046.67545.473
Pip move182.5163.7696.6211.80446.1234.2
PP46.50145.81147.58844.94045.44745.57
dis­tance78.363.2240.977.10284.4112.2
R147.28446.44349.99745.711048.29146.692
dis­tance182.5163.7696.6211.80446.1234.2
R248.32647.44854.55447.058049.90847.912
dis­tance-104.2-100.5-455.7-134.70-161.7-122
S145.45944.80643.03143.593043.8344.35
dis­tance-182.5-163.7-696.6-211.80-446.1-234.2
S244.67644.17440.62242.822040.98643.228
TV80,89372,030351,79742,17979,27879,785
50MA58.27357.77557.21256.70556.215
200MA65.85965.7865.6965.61365.522
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • DPP is a lit­tle high­er than the day before
    • We retraced the PP lev­els to about half of the day before so we tight­ened up again and are get­ting for the next big move
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • We have sup­port at 4H 44.40
    • And resis­tance at Dai­ly 46.25 level
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • We have 30M resis­tance lev­el at 46 
    • DPP 45.570 ass support
    • The next point of sup­port is 30M 45.15 level
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
Cur­rent45.8
Price
     PriceDis­tance
50MA56.2151,042
200MA65.5221,972

S/Rkindlev­elDis­tance
R6WPP47.588178.8
R530M47.05125
R4DR146.69289.2
R330M46.460
R2Dai­ly46.2545
R130M4620
CURRENT         45.8         
S1DPP45.57-23
S230M45.15-65
S330M44.8-100
S44H44.4-140
S5DS144.35-145
S6DS243.228-257.2
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We made a LH on the 30M chart and might be look­ing to have some more down­side on the short term horizon
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • 2.3438
        • Decreas­ing

Trade Plan

  • I’ll be look­ing for sup­port and resis­tance areas to be tested
    • And if they are and we are overex­tend­ed in com­bi­na­tion with a rever­sal can­dle pat­tern on the 5M chart I will take a swing rever­sal (S/R hold) trade

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
  • Only take PB setups
  • Only take con­ser­v­a­tive posi­tion sizing

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Before Lon­don open we had some short swing that show up on the 30M as small can­dles with longer low­er wicks that could poten­tial­ly be accu­mu­la­tion again. How­ev­er at Lon­don open we had a move to UKC on the 5M and got pushed back real quick that it has a long upper wick so let’s wait and see what step the mar­ket would like to make
      • Anoth­er thing I noticed is that the VWAP and KC are in con­ver­gence so we might be rang­ing the rest of the ses­sion where I can short the tops and go long at the bot­tom of the range
    • Price seems to be very errat­ic and spread is wider than usu­al 34–44
    • And we might have a BO from the top of the range and 30M 46 level
    • Very errat­ic PA still and I should be extra cau­tious. Only tiny posi­tions are allowed.
      • We are mak­ing long bod­ied can­dles at right under the 30M 46 lev­el and we might be set­ting up for a BO here. 
    • The more and more I look at this I think that we are in the accu­mu­la­tion phase again. The rea­son for this is that we might be look­ing to make a con­tin­u­a­tion  on the up move we had 2 days ago as we have pulled back on the high­er time frames and found sup­port at the 45.10 level
      • But the move might not hap­pen until NY opens
    • Wow, we just dropped to 45.75 lev­el and are being pushed up again. So a lot of activ­i­ty and no dis­cern­able trad­ing pat­tern just yet. 
    • PA has been basi­cal­ly reject­ing the 5M 50MA this whole time so I’m think­ing that I might take a long when we drop back to this lev­el again. How­ev­er, hav­ing said that we seem to also be mak­ing LHs on the top so not entire­ly sure what’s going on there. 
      • The 5M 50MA is also the 30M VWAP mean.
    • I took an exper­i­men­tal tiny posi­tion to test my the­o­ry of the range it was trad­ing at. When it dropped to the bot­tom I went long and when it moved back up but not fast enough I cov­ered quick­ly at 1.5 tick profit
      • Entry 45.903
      • Cov­ered at 45.918
    • We dropped to DPP 45.570 so I took a long position 
    • T2
      • Win 2.4 ticks
    • We didn’t return with a swing back high though and remained at the bot­tom of the range so I’m glad I got out when I did
      • We swung back up to 45.72 lev­el which was a pre­vi­ous S/R lev­el (ie. the bot­tom of the range we were swing­ing in) and per­haps we con­firmed that as resis­tance and might move down
      • As always let’s wait and see what hap­pens here. It might be a BD trap.
    • We formed a long wicked doji at the bot­tom with­in the KC still so does this mean a rever­sal is com­ing up? Could very well be. 
    • It does indeed look like a reversal.
      • We moved back to the 5M VWAP mean and I was think­ing to take a long posi­tion. Also because the 30M shows that we are at the 50MA and the pre­vi­ous can­dle pushed back on the body to right above it so that looks bullish
        • How­ev­er just after I start­ed typ­ing this we dropped a bit on the 5M and con­tra­dict­ing the PA at the VWAP mean so that makes me doubt it again so I’m going to play it safe and stay out of it. Live to fight anoth­er day.
    • After hav­ing said that I took a long posi­tion a bit lat­er and oh boy did it go against me. Luck­i­ly I took a tiny posi­tion and I am still in the trade because of that. I know that I am throw­ing over­board my usu­al plans but since I am exper­i­ment­ing today any­way with these trades of today let me see if I can trade around this posi­tion and make up for loss­es. I have the rest of the day free so I’ll be going well into the NY ses­sion as well I assume. 
    • After I closed off my posi­tions at BREAK EVEN I decid­ed to call it quits.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • I took an exper­i­men­tal tiny posi­tion to test my the­o­ry of the range it was trad­ing at. When it dropped to the bot­tom I went long and when it moved back up but not fast enough I cov­ered quick­ly at 1.5 tick profit
        • Entry 45.903
    • SL
      • Very wide under the range at 45.658
    • TP
      • 46.065
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 45.918
      • If I had wait­ed a bit longer I could have pock­et­ed some more ticks. Since I am not too famil­iar with this par­tic­u­lar set­up I want to train being more patient when PA is crazy like this. So I will try to work on this in the future.
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • KC VWAP convergence
        • KC and VWAP both widen­ing a lot which usu­al­ly means that we’ll be trad­ing with­in their range
      • We had dropped to DPP 45.57 lev­el and based on these rules I should go against the grain and go long
    • SL
      • 45.647
    • TP
      • 45.826
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I am def­i­nite­ly not too com­fort­able with this kind of trade
        • PA jumps very quick­ly and unsure what’s going to happen
        • I cov­ered at 45.671
        • Win 2.4 ticks
  • T3
    • Not closed yet
    • Closed final­ly
      • Entry
        • 45.585
        • Cov­ered 45.201
        • Loss 38.4 ticks
  • T4
    • Entry
      • 44.978
      • Cov­ered 45.001
      • Win 2.3 ticks
  • T5
    • Entry
      • 45.042
      • Cov­ered 45.081
      • Win 3.9 ticks
  • T6
    • Entry
      • 45.174
      • Cov­ered 45.241
      • Win 6.7 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I was focussed on tak­ing good trades.

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades
    • I took 6. There is some­thing to hav­ing a los­ing trade since I am sharp­er and thus more alert to make it up again. How­ev­er, this is a dan­ger­ous game but I’m glad I tried it out today and fin­ished with BREAK EVEN on the mon­ey account. Down in ticks though which I’m not too unhap­py about. 
  • Only take PB setups
    • I wait­ed for setups to arise and took them. How­ev­er, I still have an issue with cut­ting loss­es short. And then all of the sud­den I decid­ed to go work around the posi­tion. What was good was that the posi­tion was real­ly tiny and thus didn’t both­er me as much. When an oppor­tu­ni­ty came up that I should nor­mal­ly take because it’s a PB set­up, I took it with slight­ly big­ger size to make back my loss­es. I didn’t go over­board forc­ing to make up for loss­es. I stayed composed. 
  • Only take con­ser­v­a­tive posi­tion sizing
    • I did very well in this depart­ment and stuck to my rule.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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