
28 Dec 12282018 Trade Plan — Scalping to BREAK EVEN
12282018 Trade Plan — Scalping to BREAK EVEN
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | |
Beers night before | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3 glasses of wine | 4 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8.5 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 x | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 1.5 hours | 0 | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | yes | yes | no |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 02:00 | 02:30 | 10:30 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 10:30 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I am getting more sleep so that’s good. I am also trying to fast more often, but I should find a schedule and follow it.
- How do you feel?
- I feel OK. Have had enough sleep but lately I’ve had trouble falling asleep. It might be the caffeine, but not sure about that. Because some days I don’t have this problem. I’ll pay more attention to it.
- I’ve had a few cringes today so it’s best to be extra careful today. Good thing that I already decided yesterday to go back down in level to conservative sizing.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- On the Daily we can see that we pulled back to the 1.5 SD and then rejected it
- On the 4H we can see that this level is inside the KC and above the 4H VWAP mean but we also rejected the Daily 46.25 level as resistance so we might set up to range between 46.25 and 44.80
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 54% bullish
- Last 3 days 54% bullish
- Bullishness has definitely dropped but since this is the sentiment on the retail level we could perhaps assume the opposite of this
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 55% bullish
- Last 3 days 57% bullish
- Sentiment is a little more bullish than before
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- High 1.14537
- Low 1.13501
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.8% lower than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.5% higher than yesterday and 20.7% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
- Gold
- High 1278.94
- Low 1266.85
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
- BULLISH BIAS despite Net-Long positions
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Surprise Inventory Build Sends Oil Prices Lower
- The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise crude oil inventory build of 6.9 million barrels for the week ending December 21, compared to analyst expectations that we would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.869 million barrels. The surprise build will likely push oil prices further down, continuing the seesaw prices of the Christmas week.
- Surprise Inventory Build Sends Oil Prices Lower
- EIA report
- Forecast is a draw of 2.869M but API came out with a build of 6.9M so let’s see what EIA comes out with today
- Geopolitics and the headlines of today?
- Wall Street roars back late to keep rally going
- (Reuters) — U.S. stocks roared back to end in positive territory on Thursday following steep losses for much of the session, as equities rebounded for a second day.
- Wall Street Sees Oil Price Recovery In 2019
- Investment banks have had to recalibrate their oil price forecasts for next year after prices plunged by more than a third from early-October highs.
- OPEC+ Will Not Be Formalized
- OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC oil producers are highly unlikely to create some kind of a formal joint organization for managing the oil market, due to the additional bureaucracy and to the risk of falling prey to a proposed U.S. legislation that could open the cartel and allies to antitrust lawsuits, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday.
- Asian Markets Rise After Turbulent Session on Wall Street
- Investing.com — Asian markets rose in morning trade on Friday after U.S. stocks closed in positive territory following a turbulent session that saw the Dow plunge more than 600 points at one point.
- Oil prices jump, but oversupply worries persist
- SEOUL (Reuters) — Oil prices jumped as much as 3 percent on Friday to win back a chunk of the ground they lost in the previous session, but growth in U.S. crude stockpiles and ongoing concerns about the global economy kept markets under pressure.
- More Americans blame Trump for government shutdown: Reuters/Ipsos poll
- NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) — More Americans blame President Donald Trump than congressional Democrats for the partial U.S. government shutdown, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday, as the closure stretched into its sixth day with no end in sight.
- Venezuela: A Real Threat To Guyana’s Oil Boom
- Last Friday, the Guyanese government fell after a no-confidence vote, a move that likely was viewed as an opportune moment of weakness in Caracas.
- A day later, Venezuela’s navy approached two Norwegian vessels conducting seismic work in Guyanese waters on December 22, forcing the ships to flee to safer waters. The ships, under contract by ExxonMobil, are surveying the area and working to develop massive oil discoveries that could transform Guyana.
- U.S. stock funds attract cash for first time in six weeks: Lipper
- NEW YORK (Reuters) — U.S. fund investors eased into wild stock markets during the latest week, adding $5.2 billion, according to Lipper data on Thursday that reflected the first net positive flows for funds since December’s selloff began.
- Investors Are More Wary of Trump Than of Wall Street
- Wall Street roars back late to keep rally going
- Additional OPEC news
- Nope
Intraday Technical Analysis
Thu | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | |
12/20 | 12/21 | 12/17 — 12/21 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | |
High | 47.543 | 46.816 | 52.145 | 46.287 | 0 | 47.064 | 46.79 |
Low | 45.718 | 45.179 | 45.179 | 44.169 | 0 | 42.603 | 44.448 |
Close | 46.243 | 45.439 | 45.439 | 44.363 | 0 | 46.675 | 45.473 |
Pip move | 182.5 | 163.7 | 696.6 | 211.8 | 0 | 446.1 | 234.2 |
PP | 46.501 | 45.811 | 47.588 | 44.94 | 0 | 45.447 | 45.57 |
distance | 78.3 | 63.2 | 240.9 | 77.1 | 0 | 284.4 | 112.2 |
R1 | 47.284 | 46.443 | 49.997 | 45.711 | 0 | 48.291 | 46.692 |
distance | 182.5 | 163.7 | 696.6 | 211.8 | 0 | 446.1 | 234.2 |
R2 | 48.326 | 47.448 | 54.554 | 47.058 | 0 | 49.908 | 47.912 |
distance | -104.2 | -100.5 | -455.7 | -134.7 | 0 | -161.7 | -122 |
S1 | 45.459 | 44.806 | 43.031 | 43.593 | 0 | 43.83 | 44.35 |
distance | -182.5 | -163.7 | -696.6 | -211.8 | 0 | -446.1 | -234.2 |
S2 | 44.676 | 44.174 | 40.622 | 42.822 | 0 | 40.986 | 43.228 |
TV | 80,893 | 72,030 | 351,797 | 42,179 | 79,278 | 79,785 | |
50MA | 58.273 | 57.775 | 57.212 | 56.705 | 56.215 | ||
200MA | 65.859 | 65.78 | 65.69 | 65.613 | 65.522 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- DPP is a little higher than the day before
- We retraced the PP levels to about half of the day before so we tightened up again and are getting for the next big move
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have support at 4H 44.40
- And resistance at Daily 46.25 level
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- We have 30M resistance level at 46
- DPP 45.570 ass support
- The next point of support is 30M 45.15 level
- How far away are we from technical levels?
Current | 45.8 | |
Price | ||
Price | Distance | |
50MA | 56.215 | 1,042 |
200MA | 65.522 | 1,972 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | WPP | 47.588 | 178.8 |
R5 | 30M | 47.05 | 125 |
R4 | DR1 | 46.692 | 89.2 |
R3 | 30M | 46.4 | 60 |
R2 | Daily | 46.25 | 45 |
R1 | 30M | 46 | 20 |
CURRENT | 45.8 | ||
S1 | DPP | 45.57 | -23 |
S2 | 30M | 45.15 | -65 |
S3 | 30M | 44.8 | -100 |
S4 | 4H | 44.4 | -140 |
S5 | DS1 | 44.35 | -145 |
S6 | DS2 | 43.228 | -257.2 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- We made a LH on the 30M chart and might be looking to have some more downside on the short term horizon
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.3438
- Decreasing
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I’ll be looking for support and resistance areas to be tested
- And if they are and we are overextended in combination with a reversal candle pattern on the 5M chart I will take a swing reversal (S/R hold) trade
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take PB setups
- Only take conservative position sizing
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- Before London open we had some short swing that show up on the 30M as small candles with longer lower wicks that could potentially be accumulation again. However at London open we had a move to UKC on the 5M and got pushed back real quick that it has a long upper wick so let’s wait and see what step the market would like to make
- Another thing I noticed is that the VWAP and KC are in convergence so we might be ranging the rest of the session where I can short the tops and go long at the bottom of the range
- Price seems to be very erratic and spread is wider than usual 34–44
- And we might have a BO from the top of the range and 30M 46 level
- Very erratic PA still and I should be extra cautious. Only tiny positions are allowed.
- We are making long bodied candles at right under the 30M 46 level and we might be setting up for a BO here.
- The more and more I look at this I think that we are in the accumulation phase again. The reason for this is that we might be looking to make a continuation on the up move we had 2 days ago as we have pulled back on the higher time frames and found support at the 45.10 level
- But the move might not happen until NY opens
- Wow, we just dropped to 45.75 level and are being pushed up again. So a lot of activity and no discernable trading pattern just yet.
- PA has been basically rejecting the 5M 50MA this whole time so I’m thinking that I might take a long when we drop back to this level again. However, having said that we seem to also be making LHs on the top so not entirely sure what’s going on there.
- The 5M 50MA is also the 30M VWAP mean.
- I took an experimental tiny position to test my theory of the range it was trading at. When it dropped to the bottom I went long and when it moved back up but not fast enough I covered quickly at 1.5 tick profit
- Entry 45.903
- Covered at 45.918
- We dropped to DPP 45.570 so I took a long position
- T2
- Win 2.4 ticks
- We didn’t return with a swing back high though and remained at the bottom of the range so I’m glad I got out when I did
- We swung back up to 45.72 level which was a previous S/R level (ie. the bottom of the range we were swinging in) and perhaps we confirmed that as resistance and might move down
- As always let’s wait and see what happens here. It might be a BD trap.
- We formed a long wicked doji at the bottom within the KC still so does this mean a reversal is coming up? Could very well be.
- It does indeed look like a reversal.
- We moved back to the 5M VWAP mean and I was thinking to take a long position. Also because the 30M shows that we are at the 50MA and the previous candle pushed back on the body to right above it so that looks bullish
- However just after I started typing this we dropped a bit on the 5M and contradicting the PA at the VWAP mean so that makes me doubt it again so I’m going to play it safe and stay out of it. Live to fight another day.
- We moved back to the 5M VWAP mean and I was thinking to take a long position. Also because the 30M shows that we are at the 50MA and the previous candle pushed back on the body to right above it so that looks bullish
- After having said that I took a long position a bit later and oh boy did it go against me. Luckily I took a tiny position and I am still in the trade because of that. I know that I am throwing overboard my usual plans but since I am experimenting today anyway with these trades of today let me see if I can trade around this position and make up for losses. I have the rest of the day free so I’ll be going well into the NY session as well I assume.
- After I closed off my positions at BREAK EVEN I decided to call it quits.
- Before London open we had some short swing that show up on the 30M as small candles with longer lower wicks that could potentially be accumulation again. However at London open we had a move to UKC on the 5M and got pushed back real quick that it has a long upper wick so let’s wait and see what step the market would like to make
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- I took an experimental tiny position to test my theory of the range it was trading at. When it dropped to the bottom I went long and when it moved back up but not fast enough I covered quickly at 1.5 tick profit
- Entry 45.903
- I took an experimental tiny position to test my theory of the range it was trading at. When it dropped to the bottom I went long and when it moved back up but not fast enough I covered quickly at 1.5 tick profit
- SL
- Very wide under the range at 45.658
- TP
- 46.065
- Trade Management
- Covered at 45.918
- If I had waited a bit longer I could have pocketed some more ticks. Since I am not too familiar with this particular setup I want to train being more patient when PA is crazy like this. So I will try to work on this in the future.
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- KC VWAP convergence
- KC and VWAP both widening a lot which usually means that we’ll be trading within their range
- We had dropped to DPP 45.57 level and based on these rules I should go against the grain and go long
- KC VWAP convergence
- SL
- 45.647
- TP
- 45.826
- Trade Management
- I am definitely not too comfortable with this kind of trade
- PA jumps very quickly and unsure what’s going to happen
- I covered at 45.671
- Win 2.4 ticks
- I am definitely not too comfortable with this kind of trade
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Not closed yet
- Closed finally
- Entry
- 45.585
- Covered 45.201
- Loss 38.4 ticks
- Entry
- T4
- Entry
- 44.978
- Covered 45.001
- Win 2.3 ticks
- Entry
- T5
- Entry
- 45.042
- Covered 45.081
- Win 3.9 ticks
- Entry
- T6
- Entry
- 45.174
- Covered 45.241
- Win 6.7 ticks
- Entry
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I was focussed on taking good trades.
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I took 6. There is something to having a losing trade since I am sharper and thus more alert to make it up again. However, this is a dangerous game but I’m glad I tried it out today and finished with BREAK EVEN on the money account. Down in ticks though which I’m not too unhappy about.
- Only take PB setups
- I waited for setups to arise and took them. However, I still have an issue with cutting losses short. And then all of the sudden I decided to go work around the position. What was good was that the position was really tiny and thus didn’t bother me as much. When an opportunity came up that I should normally take because it’s a PB setup, I took it with slightly bigger size to make back my losses. I didn’t go overboard forcing to make up for losses. I stayed composed.
- Only take conservative position sizing
- I did very well in this department and stuck to my rule.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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