Bear Market Trader | Weekly Outlook on WTI crude oil market
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, commodities, the big picture, one good trade, the playbook
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12302018 Weekly Big Picture

12302018 Weekly Big Picture

12302018 Week­ly Big Picture

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Review­ing the health progress

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon
Beers night before401104
Hours sleep88.5869
Sleep well?22213
Neg­a­tive thoughts?12111
Exer­cise yester(to)day11111
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours2 espres­so real quick1 espres­so spread over 2 hours0
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesnononono
Water 2.2L bottles22222
Time bed yesterday11:0010:3011:3004:3002:00
  • Points from last week’s Big Picture
    • I am not doing well on the dis­ci­pline with my sleep­ing rou­tine. The fac­tors that play a big role in this are the fol­low­ing (under­neath are my pro­posed solu­tions and goals for next week):
      • Social gath­er­ings that include drink­ing alcohol
        • This inter­feres with my sleep­ing rou­tine on the week­end and spills over to the begin­ning of the week
          • I will lim­it to social gath­er­ings to one day. Fri­day or Saturday. 
            • Stayed at home on Fri­day and had 1 drink
            • Went out on Sat­ur­day and too many drinks
            • Stayed at home on Sun­day and had a few drinks
      • Busi­ness meet­ings that again include alcohol
        • I don’t need to be there when we look at prop­er­ties. My part­ners can han­dle the pre­lim­i­nary fil­ter­ing of prop­er­ties and in case of enough inter­est I can go have a look.
          • I let my part­ners know and haven’t gone out dur­ing the week
      • Caf­feine intake
        • I am going to lim­it my caf­feine intake to the week­ends only
          • I haven’t done this but will work on this this week
      • Inter­mit­tent fasting
        • When I fast and drink caf­feine it has a big­ger effect on me and thus is a dan­ger­ous com­bi­na­tion. Luckily,I only fast dur­ing the week and since I won’t be drink­ing any caf­feine dur­ing the week I won’t have to deal with this.
          • I fastest twice
      • Exer­cis­ing
        • I have to start exer­cis­ing again and will at least do so 2 times a week.
          • I didn’t exer­cise at all and I real­ly need to start doing. Next week I will work out. This is always a thing with me where I need to be con­scious of it for a while before I actu­al­ly start doing some­thing about it. 
  • How did you do the whole week?
    • I feel like I pro­gressed a bit but obvi­ous­ly still need to work on it.
    • Goals for this week
      • Exer­cise 2 times
      • Don’t drink caf­feine dur­ing the week
      • Watch the social gatherings
      • Fast at least twice
      • Review play­book setups
      • Review trades!
        • I will do this the next day when I write my trade plan of the day

Last week’s trading

  • How did you do?
    • Did you stick to your play­book setups?
      • For the most part I did except on Fri­day where I took a bit of an exper­i­men­tal approach
    • Did you stick to your posi­tion siz­ing rules?
      • Yes I did this. I had pun­ished myself and kept to my rules
    • Did you review your play­book setups?
      • I did and I tru­ly under­stand that this is where the most progress can be found
    • Did you review your trades?
      • I did not unless they were part of the play­book setups I reviewed. The focus wasn’t on the actu­al trades tak­en though and more on the play­book setups themselves.

The Big Picture

  • WTI
    • What hap­pened last week?
      • Last week we had a huge ral­ly Wednes­day that brought sen­ti­ment up in bull­ish­ness again. How­ev­er we are still not in the clear.
      • Since, we pulled back a bit and prob­a­bly due to less liq­uid­i­ty we won’t be mak­ing a big move just yet. Prob­a­bly after New Year’s
    • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
      • Accord­ing to the API there was a build of 6.7 mil­lion but the EIA report­ed a min­i­mal draw of 0.046 million
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?
        • Retail sen­ti­ment on bull­ish­ness is still fair­ly high
      • What does state?
        • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 57% bullish
          • Last 3 days 52% bullish
        • This week’s
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 57% bullish
          • Last 3 days 62% bullish
        • As we can see in the last 3 days we made a 10% jump in bullishness
    • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?
   12/17 — 12/2112/2412/2512/2612/2712/2812/24 — 12/28
Pip move696.6211.80446.1234.2181.5446.1
50MA   57.212   56.70556.21555.746   
200MA   65.69   65.61365.52265.421   
  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
    • Piv­ot lev­els and Tick Volume
      • TV has decreased in com­par­i­son with last week which makes sense since we didn’t trade on Tuesday
      • PP lev­els have decreased as well so we might be set­ting up for anoth­er big move
    • Dai­ly chart
      • Mov­ing Averages
        • The 50 and 200 MAs have both still been trend­ing down
    • 4H chart
      • On the 4H chart we can see that PA is still trad­ing under the 50MA but we are very close so we might have a move to cross
  • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?

CURRENT   46.335   
  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
    • Side­ways on the 4H but are look­ing to start an uptrend
  • Is there an OPEC meeting?
    • nope
  • Ener­gy sector
    • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing? (com­pared to pre­vi­ous week)
      • US
        • 1 month
          • -15.90% to
          • -14.02%
        • 3 months
          • -27.68% to
          • -27.04
        • YTD
          • -24.06% to
          • -22.64%
      • The Amer­i­c­as
        • 1 month
          • -15.51% to
          • -12.96%
        • 3 months
          • -26.31% to
          • -25.58%
        • YTD
          • -24.32% to
          • -22.90%
      • Europe
        • 1 month
          • -7.11% to
          • -3.97%
        • 3 months
          • -17.18% to
          • -15.87%
        • YTD
          • -8.55% to
          • -8.02%
      • Asia
        • 1 month
          • -6.88% to
          • -6.02%
        • 3 months
          • -19.42% to
          • -20.52%
        • YTD
          • -13.92% to
          • 13.54%
      • Mid­dle East / Africa
        • 1 month
          • -7.19% to
          • -3.50%
        • 3 months
          • -8.72% to
          • -9.33%
        • YTD
          • -8.48% to
          • -9.48%
      • All sec­tors have been gain­ing except for Mid­dle-East / Africa which has lost some in the last 3 months to a year
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High 1.14724
      • Low 1.13462
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 7.8% low­er than yes­ter­day and 1.2% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 8.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 20.7% low­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-short sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to rise. Posi­tion­ing is more net-short than yes­ter­day but less net-short from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
      • MIXED BIAS
  • Gold
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High 1281
      • Low 1255.67
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.0% high­er than yes­ter­day and 15.0% high­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yes­ter­day and com­pared with last week. Recent changes in sen­ti­ment warn that the cur­rent Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse high­er despite the fact traders remain net-long.
      • BULLISH BIAS despite Net-Long positions
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?
      • North Kore­a’s Kim sent mes­sage to Trump on nuclear talks: Chosun Ilbo
        • SEOUL (Reuters) — North Kore­an leader Kim Jong Un has sent a “con­cil­ia­to­ry mes­sage” to U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump amid stalled nuclear nego­ti­a­tions, South Kore­a’s Chosun Ilbo news­pa­per report­ed on Monday.
      • Stocks pin hopes on Sino‑U.S. talk, as year ends deep in the red
        • SYDNEY (Reuters) — Asian stocks rose on Mon­day as hints of progress on the Sino‑U.S. trade stand­off pro­vid­ed a rare glim­mer of opti­mism in what has been a rough year-end for equi­ties globally.
      • Wall Street may gain Mon­day but unlike­ly to mute Decem­ber losses
        • BOSTON (Reuters) — Investors could see one last boost to Wall Street stocks in the final trad­ing ses­sion of the year on Mon­day, but they do not expect gains to off­set loss­es in the worst Decem­ber since the 1930s.
      • Repub­li­can Sen­a­tor Gra­ham says Trump recep­tive to shut­down deal idea
        • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. Sen­a­tor Lind­sey Gra­ham said on Sun­day he was opti­mistic that Repub­li­cans, Democ­rats and Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump could reach a deal to end a gov­ern­ment shut­down that includes bor­der wall fund­ing and legal sta­tus for some ille­gal immigrants.
      • Fed Chair Pow­ell’s unscript­ed approach sets up for rocky 2019
        • WASHINGTON/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) — Jerome Pow­ell had a bumpy first year as Fed­er­al Reserve chair­man when it came to talk­ing pol­i­cy, by turns spook­ing and com­fort­ing investors even as eco­nom­ic data offered increas­ing­ly mixed sig­nals and Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump stepped up his attacks on the U.S. cen­tral bank.
      • Putin tells Trump that Moscow is open for dialogue
        • MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russ­ian Pres­i­dent Vladimir Putin told his U.S. coun­ter­part Don­ald Trump in a New Year let­ter on Sun­day that Moscow was ready for dia­logue on a “wide-rang­ing agen­da”, the Krem­lin said fol­low­ing a series of failed attempts to hold a new summit.
      • Trump says ‘big progress’ on pos­si­ble Chi­na trade deal
        • WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) — U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump said on Twit­ter that he had a “long and very good call” with Chi­nese Pres­i­dent Xi Jin­ping and that a pos­si­ble trade deal between the Unit­ed States and Chi­na was pro­gress­ing well.
      • UK trade min­is­ter says ‘50–50’ chance Brex­it may be stopped: paper
        • LONDON (Reuters) — Britain’s trade min­is­ter Liam Fox said there is a “50–50” chance that Brex­it may be stopped if par­lia­ment rejects the gov­ern­men­t’s divorce deal with the Euro­pean Union next month.
      • Ital­ian par­lia­ment pass­es bud­get in con­fi­dence vote, after EU deal
        • ROME (Reuters) — The Ital­ian par­lia­ment on Sat­ur­day passed the gov­ern­men­t’s 2019 bud­get just ahead of an end-year dead­line, fol­low­ing last week’s deal with the Euro­pean Com­mis­sion which calmed finan­cial mar­kets and avert­ed a risk of fines against Rome.
      • Rus­sia may dou­ble quo­ta on toma­to imports from Turkey: Ifax
        • MOSCOW (Reuters) — Rus­si­a’s Agri­cul­ture Min­istry is con­sid­er­ing dou­bling the quo­ta on toma­to imports from Turkey to 100,000 tonnes a year, Inter­fax news agency report­ed on Sat­ur­day, cit­ing a draft decree.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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