
31 Dec 12302018 Weekly Big Picture
12302018 Weekly Big Picture
This is part of my weekly preparation of my trading week to give me an idea on where I think the market stands.
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Reviewing the health progress
5 positive 1 negative | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon |
12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 | 12/31 | |
Beers night before | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 8.5 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5x |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 2 espresso real quick | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 |
Intermittent fasting | yes | no | no | no | no |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | no | no | no |
Time bed yesterday | 11:00 | 10:30 | 11:30 | 04:30 | 02:00 |
- Points from last week’s Big Picture
- I am not doing well on the discipline with my sleeping routine. The factors that play a big role in this are the following (underneath are my proposed solutions and goals for next week):
- Social gatherings that include drinking alcohol
- This interferes with my sleeping routine on the weekend and spills over to the beginning of the week
- I will limit to social gatherings to one day. Friday or Saturday.
- Stayed at home on Friday and had 1 drink
- Went out on Saturday and too many drinks
- Stayed at home on Sunday and had a few drinks
- I will limit to social gatherings to one day. Friday or Saturday.
- This interferes with my sleeping routine on the weekend and spills over to the beginning of the week
- Business meetings that again include alcohol
- I don’t need to be there when we look at properties. My partners can handle the preliminary filtering of properties and in case of enough interest I can go have a look.
- I let my partners know and haven’t gone out during the week
- I don’t need to be there when we look at properties. My partners can handle the preliminary filtering of properties and in case of enough interest I can go have a look.
- Caffeine intake
- I am going to limit my caffeine intake to the weekends only
- I haven’t done this but will work on this this week
- I am going to limit my caffeine intake to the weekends only
- Intermittent fasting
- When I fast and drink caffeine it has a bigger effect on me and thus is a dangerous combination. Luckily,I only fast during the week and since I won’t be drinking any caffeine during the week I won’t have to deal with this.
- I fastest twice
- When I fast and drink caffeine it has a bigger effect on me and thus is a dangerous combination. Luckily,I only fast during the week and since I won’t be drinking any caffeine during the week I won’t have to deal with this.
- Exercising
- I have to start exercising again and will at least do so 2 times a week.
- I didn’t exercise at all and I really need to start doing. Next week I will work out. This is always a thing with me where I need to be conscious of it for a while before I actually start doing something about it.
- I have to start exercising again and will at least do so 2 times a week.
- Social gatherings that include drinking alcohol
- I am not doing well on the discipline with my sleeping routine. The factors that play a big role in this are the following (underneath are my proposed solutions and goals for next week):
- How did you do the whole week?
- I feel like I progressed a bit but obviously still need to work on it.
- Goals for this week
- Exercise 2 times
- Don’t drink caffeine during the week
- Watch the social gatherings
- Fast at least twice
- Review playbook setups
- Review trades!
- I will do this the next day when I write my trade plan of the day
Last week’s trading
- How did you do?
- Did you stick to your playbook setups?
- For the most part I did except on Friday where I took a bit of an experimental approach
- Did you stick to your position sizing rules?
- Yes I did this. I had punished myself and kept to my rules
- Did you review your playbook setups?
- I did and I truly understand that this is where the most progress can be found
- Did you review your trades?
- I did not unless they were part of the playbook setups I reviewed. The focus wasn’t on the actual trades taken though and more on the playbook setups themselves.
- Did you stick to your playbook setups?
The Big Picture
- WTI
- What happened last week?
- Last week we had a huge rally Wednesday that brought sentiment up in bullishness again. However we are still not in the clear.
- Since, we pulled back a bit and probably due to less liquidity we won’t be making a big move just yet. Probably after New Year’s
- What is the supply and demand balance?
- According to the API there was a build of 6.7 million but the EIA reported a minimal draw of 0.046 million
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
- Retail sentiment on bullishness is still fairly high
- What does investing.com state?
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 57% bullish
- Last 3 days 52% bullish
- This week’s
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 57% bullish
- Last 3 days 62% bullish
- As we can see in the last 3 days we made a 10% jump in bullishness
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
- What is the Tick Volume showing?
- What happened last week?
Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Week | |
12/17 — 12/21 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/24 — 12/28 | |
High | 52.145 | 46.287 | 0 | 47.064 | 46.79 | 46.313 | 47.064 |
Low | 45.179 | 44.169 | 0 | 42.603 | 44.448 | 44.498 | 42.603 |
Close | 45.439 | 44.363 | 0 | 46.675 | 45.473 | 45.19 | 45.219 |
Pip move | 696.6 | 211.8 | 0 | 446.1 | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 |
PP | 47.588 | 44.94 | 0 | 45.447 | 45.57 | 45.334 | 44.962 |
distance | 240.9 | 77.1 | 0 | 284.4 | 112.2 | 83.6 | 235.9 |
R1 | 49.997 | 45.711 | 0 | 48.291 | 46.692 | 46.17 | 47.321 |
distance | 696.6 | 211.8 | 0 | 446.1 | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 |
R2 | 54.554 | 47.058 | 0 | 49.908 | 47.912 | 47.149 | 49.423 |
distance | -455.7 | -134.7 | 0 | -161.7 | -122 | -97.9 | -210.2 |
S1 | 43.031 | 43.593 | 0 | 43.83 | 44.35 | 44.355 | 42.86 |
distance | -696.6 | -211.8 | 0 | -446.1 | -234.2 | -181.5 | -446.1 |
S2 | 40.622 | 42.822 | 0 | 40.986 | 43.228 | 43.519 | 40.501 |
TV | 351,797 | 42,179 | 79,278 | 79,785 | 74,216 | 275,458 | |
50MA | 57.212 | 56.705 | 56.215 | 55.746 | |||
200MA | 65.69 | 65.613 | 65.522 | 65.421 |
- What are the most important technical levels in the market?
- Pivot levels and Tick Volume
- TV has decreased in comparison with last week which makes sense since we didn’t trade on Tuesday
- PP levels have decreased as well so we might be setting up for another big move
- Daily chart
- Moving Averages
- The 50 and 200 MAs have both still been trending down
- Moving Averages
- 4H chart
- On the 4H chart we can see that PA is still trading under the 50MA but we are very close so we might have a move to cross
- Pivot levels and Tick Volume
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
Current | 46.335 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 55.746 | 941 |
200MA | 65.421 | 1,909 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | Daily | 49.8 | 346.5 |
R5 | Weekly | 47.5 | 116.5 |
R4 | WR1 | 47.321 | 98.6 |
R3 | DR2 | 47.149 | 81.4 |
R2 | 30M | 47.05 | 71.5 |
R1 | 30M | 46.4 | 6.5 |
CURRENT | 46.335 | ||
S1 | DR1 | 46.17 | -16.5 |
S2 | 30M | 46 | -33.5 |
S3 | DPP | 45.334 | -100.1 |
S4 | 4H | 45.1 | -123.5 |
S5 | WPP | 44.962 | -137.3 |
S6 | 30M | 44.8 | -153.5 |
- Is the market trending up or down?
- Sideways on the 4H but are looking to start an uptrend
- Is there an OPEC meeting?
- nope
- Energy sector
- How is the sector as a whole doing? (compared to previous week)
- US
- 1 month
- -15.90% to
- -14.02%
- 3 months
- -27.68% to
- -27.04
- YTD
- -24.06% to
- -22.64%
- 1 month
- The Americas
- 1 month
- -15.51% to
- -12.96%
- 3 months
- -26.31% to
- -25.58%
- YTD
- -24.32% to
- -22.90%
- 1 month
- Europe
- 1 month
- -7.11% to
- -3.97%
- 3 months
- -17.18% to
- -15.87%
- YTD
- -8.55% to
- -8.02%
- 1 month
- Asia
- 1 month
- -6.88% to
- -6.02%
- 3 months
- -19.42% to
- -20.52%
- YTD
- -13.92% to
- 13.54%
- 1 month
- Middle East / Africa
- 1 month
- -7.19% to
- -3.50%
- 3 months
- -8.72% to
- -9.33%
- YTD
- -8.48% to
- -9.48%
- 1 month
- All sectors have been gaining except for Middle-East / Africa which has lost some in the last 3 months to a year
- US
- How is the sector as a whole doing? (compared to previous week)
- EURUSD
- What is last week’s price range?
- High 1.14724
- Low 1.13462
- What is the market sentiment?
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.8% lower than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.5% higher than yesterday and 20.7% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
- What is last week’s price range?
- Gold
- What is last week’s price range?
- High 1281
- Low 1255.67
- What is the market sentiment?
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
- BULLISH BIAS despite Net-Long positions
- What is last week’s price range?
- Geopolitics
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
- North Korea’s Kim sent message to Trump on nuclear talks: Chosun Ilbo
- SEOUL (Reuters) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has sent a “conciliatory message” to U.S. President Donald Trump amid stalled nuclear negotiations, South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported on Monday.
- Stocks pin hopes on Sino‑U.S. talk, as year ends deep in the red
- SYDNEY (Reuters) — Asian stocks rose on Monday as hints of progress on the Sino‑U.S. trade standoff provided a rare glimmer of optimism in what has been a rough year-end for equities globally.
- Wall Street may gain Monday but unlikely to mute December losses
- BOSTON (Reuters) — Investors could see one last boost to Wall Street stocks in the final trading session of the year on Monday, but they do not expect gains to offset losses in the worst December since the 1930s.
- Republican Senator Graham says Trump receptive to shutdown deal idea
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on Sunday he was optimistic that Republicans, Democrats and President Donald Trump could reach a deal to end a government shutdown that includes border wall funding and legal status for some illegal immigrants.
- Fed Chair Powell’s unscripted approach sets up for rocky 2019
- WASHINGTON/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) — Jerome Powell had a bumpy first year as Federal Reserve chairman when it came to talking policy, by turns spooking and comforting investors even as economic data offered increasingly mixed signals and President Donald Trump stepped up his attacks on the U.S. central bank.
- Putin tells Trump that Moscow is open for dialogue
- MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russian President Vladimir Putin told his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump in a New Year letter on Sunday that Moscow was ready for dialogue on a “wide-ranging agenda”, the Kremlin said following a series of failed attempts to hold a new summit.
- Trump says ‘big progress’ on possible China trade deal
- WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) — U.S. President Donald Trump said on Twitter that he had a “long and very good call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that a possible trade deal between the United States and China was progressing well.
- UK trade minister says ‘50–50’ chance Brexit may be stopped: paper
- LONDON (Reuters) — Britain’s trade minister Liam Fox said there is a “50–50” chance that Brexit may be stopped if parliament rejects the government’s divorce deal with the European Union next month.
- Italian parliament passes budget in confidence vote, after EU deal
- ROME (Reuters) — The Italian parliament on Saturday passed the government’s 2019 budget just ahead of an end-year deadline, following last week’s deal with the European Commission which calmed financial markets and averted a risk of fines against Rome.
- Russia may double quota on tomato imports from Turkey: Ifax
- MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russia’s Agriculture Ministry is considering doubling the quota on tomato imports from Turkey to 100,000 tonnes a year, Interfax news agency reported on Saturday, citing a draft decree.
- North Korea’s Kim sent message to Trump on nuclear talks: Chosun Ilbo
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
Sources:
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
- https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
- https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
- https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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