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14082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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14082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

14082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

14082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less rice and noodles
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I had good sleep although it took me awhile to fall asleep. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • We had a UKC BO and resis­tance by 200MA if we don’t breach UKC we could see anoth­er leg up, oth­er­wise drop to VWAP
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 57.368
      • PVAH 56.761
      • PPOC 54.731
      • PVAL 54.248
      • Prev. Low 54.120
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • Pos­si­ble Exhaust­ed ral­ly prev day into U TT look­ing for UKCCAR to con­firm bias oth­er­wise a U TC 50MA
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • Small PA slop­ing down to test 200MA look­ing to BD with ease

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 56.30
    • Tar­gets 55.95, 55.40
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF U TC 50MA
    • Entry around 56.10
    • Tar­gets 56.50, extend­ed 57.20
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 56.05 — 56.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 point

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing?
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble HTF U TT but no real CAR just fol­low­ing VWAP slop­ing down pos­si­ble long at 50MA intersection
      • TTF
        • TTF R
          • Look for long at LKCCAS or TTF R Oversold
          • PA very slow and spread around 49/50
      • Bias
        • Long unless we BD from HTF50
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • HTF U TC 50MA
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble HTF U TC 50MA or BD
          • If there is a U TC then we could pos­si­bly see a UKCCAR
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD at LKC going on, mak­ing LHs and LLs look­ing bear­ish here
      • Bias
        • TTF look­ing bear­ish so unless we make a HL we are in bear territory
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • HTF50MABD (exper­i­men­tal)
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • No Change ATM
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • 2 dojis at 50MA pos­si­ble HTF U TC 50MA
      • TTF
        • TTF R HLs
      • Bias
        • Long
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF R HL = best entry at bottom
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Small PA VWAP = Resis­tance 50MA = support
            • VWAP giv­ing good resis­tance, pos­si­ble 50MABD
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD messy bounces pos­si­ble BD
      • Bias
        • Unclear could be a HTF50MABD so slight­ly more short biased
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTF50MABD in effect
      • TTF
        • Wait­ing for some bounce to CAR pre­vi­ous sup­port lev­el for re-entry short
      • Bias
        • Short
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk? 
          • HTF50MACAR which could be a pos­si­ble LTF D TC 50MA
    • 19:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Dropped from 50MA look­ing for sup­port pos­si­bly but not clear yet
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­sold but still below LKC
        • LTF show­ing a pos­si­ble D TT LKCCAS after an exhaust­ed move down which would be in line with reversal
      • Bias
        • Short but we could be set­ting up for a rever­sal as part of  HTF U TC LKC
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM
    • 19:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • TTF
        • Bias
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • 20:05
          • HTF
            • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • TTF
            • Bias
              • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
                • What set­up am I going to stalk?

          Dai­ly Report Card

          Trade Idea

          • Hypo 1 Short
            • HTF UKCCAR
            • Entry around 56.30
            • Tar­gets 55.95, 55.40
          • Hypo 2 Long
            • HTF U TC 50MA
            • Entry around 56.10
            • Tar­gets 56.50, extend­ed 57.20
          • Hypo 3 Rotational
            • 56.05 — 56.90





          Dai­ly Report Card



          Date:8/14/2019



          Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



          Com­bined Score68



          Process Report Card (10 each)

          6Ses­sion PECS

          10Hypos

          10Mar­ket Prep

          10Dai­ly review

          6Progress tow. week­ly goal

          42Total






          Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
          60%6Real-time analy­sis
          2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
          2/210Setups tak­en
          2/20Erro­neous Entries
          2/20Erro­neous Exits

          26total



          • Week­ly Goal
            • Only A/A+trade ideas on 1st account (4 points)
              • There were none
            • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
              • I did not do well here because 1) I lacked clar­i­ty on this par­tic­u­lar set­up. Will go gack and ana­lyze, replay etc. 2) I had one big­ger than usu­al loss with a stop put very wide but got hit on high momen­tum drop (rea­son for wide stop was because of try­ing to let the nar­ra­tive play out
            • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 point
              • I did try out tak­ing trades on this exper­i­men­tal trade and shift­ed from long to short bias
                • My entries were not good so scratched most and the 2 that were I took prof­it on too soon try­ing to make up for the loss I incurred before. 
          • Review
          Trade IdeaPos.Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
          1100HTF50MA BD (exper­i­men­tal)10ScratchedTTF HL--
          2201HTF U TC 50MA10SOLots of AD going onMoved Stop-
          221010ScratchedScratched--
          3310HTF50MA BD (exper­i­men­tal)10ScratchedScratchedChased mar­ket did­n’t wait for bet­ter entry to present itselfGet more famil­iar with setup
          341010ScratchedScratched
          350110TPTPTSTook Prof­it Too Soon
          4600HTF50MACAR (exper­i­men­tal)10ScratchedMomen­tum loss at S--
          4701HTF50MA CAR A2P (exper­i­men­tal)10TPTPTSTook Prof­it Too SoonGet more famil­iar with setup
          • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
            • Hypo 1 — 100%
              • Did well here
            • Real-time analy­sis — 60%
              • I saw the fail­ure on long bias trade idea a lit­tle too late, I did not pay too much atten­tion to HTF VWAP giv­ing resis­tance and that we were unable to breach. After my wide stop got tak­en out I saw the fail­ure (obvi­ous­ly clear at this point) and shift­ed to short bias
          • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
            • P: Did well here
            • E: The stop made me lose my tem­per and I went for a cig­a­rette to calm down
            • CS: I was focused on the screen the whole time, but because I held on to my long bias I didn’t see the ‘actu­al’ mar­ket narrative
          • What’s one thing you learned today?
            • Let mar­ket nar­ra­tive lead you
              • Will review and replay and make med­i­ta­tion and visu­al­iza­tion part of routine
                • New PB for­mat: Write PB, visu­al­ize the same day, visu­al­ize all PBs of the week on the weekend
          • Positive(s)
            • Shift from long to short bias (although a bit late)
            • Walked away after get­ting emotional
            • Made back most of my loss­es (the ses­sion isn’t over until it’s over)
            • Stuck to my (2nd) trade idea
          • Negative(s)
            • Did not pay atten­tion to fail­ure signs
              • Addressed this
            • Chased the market
              • Although I wait­ed for a slight­ly bet­ter entry I could have cho­sen bet­ter entries — addressed this
            • Took prof­it too soon
              • Took prof­it to make back for my loss but if I had just let me TP tak­en out I would not have had a loss, bet­ter yet I would have closed the day in good profit. 

          Feed­back?

          Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

          T3chAddict
          t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

          Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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