15052019 Wednesday – HTF A/D – TTF R 200MACAS

15052019 Wednesday – HTF A/D – TTF R 200MACAS

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Confirm As Resistance
• CAS = Confirm As Support
• UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
• LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
• DPP = Daily Pivot Point
• DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
• DS = Daily Support (pivot)
• WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
• WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
• HL = Higher Low
• HH = Higher High
• LH = Lower High
• LL = Lower Low
• SD = Standard Deviation
• VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = London Session (EU)
• NY = New York Session (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Lower Time Frame
• TTF = Trading Time Frame
• HTF = Higher Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Weekly goal
  • No rice, noodles, etc.
    • Had a little brown rice yesterday and some noodles today for lunch
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good.
• How would you rate it (1-5)?
  • 4

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

• API report
  • Latest Release May 14, 2019
  • Actual 8.600M
  • Previous 2.806M
• EIA report
  • Release Date  May 15, 2019
  • Forecast -0.800M
  • Previous -3.963M
  • Forecast changed from -2.125M

Intraday Technical Analysis

• HTF
  • Define context
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.24
      • PVAH 62.24
      • PPOC 61.847
      • PVAL 61.253
      • Low 60.829
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.30 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • Market didn’t choose a direction
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Market still balancing

• TTF
  • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Drop to Prev Low
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Session printed?
    • Made a move up to PPOC (TTF200MABOF) and returned back to 61.40s

Trade Idea (not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF200MABO
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Targets 62.20, 62.45
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MABOF
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Targets 61.30
• Hypo 3 Short
  • PVALBD
  • Entry around 61.20
  • Targets 60.90

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

• Define winning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later

Reading the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:05
    • Earlier during AS we BD from HTF50MA and made a PB then continued down towards HTFLKC
    • TTF DT in progress but we hit PVAL possible break here. Wait for PB to TTFLKCVWAP area before considering getting in
  • 16:35
    • High momentum move to TTFVWAP then PB to VWAP enter TTF NT setup
  • 17:05
    • HTF and TTF are showing long-bodied candles that means something is going on best to stay out.
  • 17:35
    • Move to TTF LKC and reversal doji followed by drop according to Range bound trading. Did not get in because I can only take TTF NT and TC setups.
    • Price is still moving fast
  • 18:05
    • PB to TTF VWAP 50MA LTF200MA
  • 18:35
    • Testing HTF LKC
    • TTF below LKC might reverse here
  • 19:05
    • We reversed from TTFLKC and TTF50MABO but running interference at HTFVWAP
  • 19:35
    • Still below HTF VWAP TTF200MA doesn’t look like breaking anytime soon
  • 20:05

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF move to LKC but not reached it yet
    • TTF
      • TTF DTC price back to 1.0 SD
    • LTF
      • LTFLKCPB
  • SL
    • 61.341
  • TP
    • 61.121
  • Trade Management
    • High erratic momentum probably because we hit PVAL, scratched by covering manually covered at 61.225

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF LKC
    • TTF
      • TTF LKC VWAP PB
      • TTF TC
    • LTF
      • LTF UKC
  • SL
    • 61.405
  • TP
    • 61.184
  • Trade Management
    • Stopped out at 61.405

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Possible rejection HTF LKC and PVAL
    • TTF
      • TTF test 50MA and PB to VWAP LKC area
      • TTF NT 10 @ 61.387
    • LTF
      • LTF drop to 50MA
  • SL
    • 61.202
  • TP
    • 61.56
  • Trade Management
    • Scratched at 61.40
    • scratched because erratic momentum and TTF making long bodied candles indicating something is going on and I should stay out for now

Daily Report Card

Trade Idea (not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF200MABO
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Targets 62.20, 62.45
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MABOF
  • Entry around 61.90
  • Targets 61.30
• Hypo 3 Short
  • PVALBD
  • Entry around 61.20
  • Targets 60.90

Date:	5/15/2019	Weekly Goal	Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
Combined Score	86
Process Report Card (10 each)	Performance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-market routines	3	Hypos
9	Session PECS	9	Real-time analysis
10	Trading the process	9	Trade selection
9	Daily review	9	Trade Execution & Mgmt.
10	Progress toward Weekly goal	9	Risk Adjusted Returns
47	Total	39

• Weekly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later
• Review

Trade	Date	Session	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mistakes (if any)	Sizing	Hit Target?	Reason to cover
1	15/5/20190	EU	0	0	TTF TC	5	NO	High erratic momentum probably because we hit PVAL, scratched by covering manually
2	15/5/2019	EU	0	0	TTF TC	5	Stopped Out
3	15/5/2019	EU	0	0	TTF NT	10	NO	scratched because erratic momentum and TTF making long bodied candles indicating something is going on and I should stay out for now

• How accurate was my assessment of market context?
  • In terms of hypos not so good. We traded in a range and smart money is probably positioning on the HTF which didn’t create opportunities for me with my setups. However, I did take notes of another setup that I am working on which is a TTF range bound setup which I will replay later.
  • Real-time analysis was close to on-point. I noticed something was up but took my setup anyway with ½ sizing. This helped with learning how to take my stop and manually cover when things don’t move in a way it is “supposed” to.
• How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
  • I did well here.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I can be calm and collected when I follow my plan. Sounds easy! Ha 🙂 Progress. Not perfection.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Take notes on potential future setups now that I have time frames that seem to be working for me.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • I could have been more involved concentration-wise. After I deemed the session to be in a range I found myself preoccupied with other things unrelated to trading.

Feedback?

Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.