Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
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17052019 Friday — HTF UTC — TTF R TC

17052019 Friday — HTF UTC — TTF R TC

17052019 Fri­day — HTF UTC — TTF R TC

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less rice, noo­dles, etc.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good although not too sharp
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release May 14, 2019
    • Actu­al 8.600M
    • Pre­vi­ous 2.806M
  • EIA report
    • Release Date  May 15, 2019 
    • Fore­cast ‑0.800M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.963M
    • Actu­al 5.431M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 63.660
        • PVAH 63.135
        • PPOC 62.616
        • PVAL 62.371
        • Low 62.286
      • Where is the LIS?
        • PVAH area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t BD from HTF UKC
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF UT still in effect how­ev­er some slow­ing down of momen­tum prob­a­bly on the hori­zon on the short/medium term
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF TC
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS made a HTF LH look­ing to take a breather maybe

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF TC
    • Entry around 63.20
    • Tar­gets 63.55, 63.80
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF50MABD
    • Entry around 63.10
    • Tar­gets 62.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record for one month (min­i­mum 30) trades) to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • Many dojis at TTF UKC just above TTF200MA pos­si­ble A/D? Price is also very sluggish.
    • 16:35
      • TTF50MAPB (which is also HTF50MA and we are still more like­ly to con­tin­ue UT unless we BD here)
    • 17:05
      • Still a lot of A/D bars on TTF but we might be look­ing to have a HTF50MACAS, any­way TTF R still in effect
    • 17:35
      • We moved over TTF VWAP and then made a PB pos­si­ble BO accord­ing to TTF R set­up but have not tak­en it
      • Pos­si­ble HTF UKC Rever­sal to start a HTF R again
    • 18:05
      • HHTF200MABO pos­si­bly
      • Still many doji can­dles (is this indica­tive of the HHTFBO?
    • 18:35
      • A move over HTF UKC but price still very slow. This is prob­a­bly a BO. will take note of this for my TTF R trade idea.
    • 19:05
      • Exper­i­men­tal trade: TTF TC over UKC after TTF R

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF50MACAS
      • TTF
        • TTF TC PB to TTF50MA above TTF200MA
        • Entry 5 @ 63.312
      • LTF
        • LTF50MACAS
    • SL
      • 63.244
    • TP
      • DPVAH 63.458
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I cov­ered when we formed a doji at LTF UKC
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • Pos­si­ble HTF UKC BO 
      • TTF
        • TTF R TC at TTF UKC area
        • Entry 63.47
      • LTF
        • LTFLKCCAS
    • SL
      • TP
        • Trade Man­age­ment
          • Cov­ered at 63.51

      Dai­ly Report Card

      Trade Idea

      • Hypo 1 Long
        • HTF TC
        • Entry around 63.20
        • Tar­gets 63.55, 63.80
      • Hypo 2 Short
        • HTF50MABD
        • Entry around 63.10
        • Tar­gets 62.80

      Date:5/17/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
      Com­bined Score86
      Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
      5Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
      9Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
      10Trad­ing the process10Trade selec­tion
      9Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
      10Progress toward Week­ly goal8Risk Adjust­ed Returns

      • Week­ly Goal
        • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record for one month (min­i­mum 30) trades) to ana­lyze later
      • Review
        • I took one TTF TC trade and quick­ly cov­ered when I real­ized this was going to be anoth­er TTF R day so after­wards I just sat here tak­ing notes like the sci­en­tist I am 🙂 
        • Took an exper­i­men­tal trade on 2nd account and cov­ered that quick­ly as well when I saw price retrac­ing more than I liked (cross over MA). 
        • I didn’t have time to do my mar­ket prep so kin­da rushed through it when I sat down to trade. 
      Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeMis­takes (if any)Siz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
      00TTF TC-5NODoji on LTF and lack of momentum--
      00TTF R TC (exper­i­men­tal)-10NOPrice crossed down over LTF50MA and I cov­ered at a small profit--
      • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
        • Hypo1 90%
      • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
        • I did well here
      • What’s one thing you learned today?
        • That I don’t need to trade. I can be patient and wait for setups to present themselves. 
      • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
        • Be a patient scientist
      • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
        • Think­ing I’m there. I am not there. There is no there. Just keep doing what you’re doing.


      Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

      QODE SEO

      Trade Jour­nal on day trad­ing the WTI crude oil market


      oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trad­ing, day­trad­ing, trade jour­nal, jour­nal­ing, trade plan, com­modi­ties, play­book, one good trade, becom­ing a CPT, con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trader,


      Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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