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18042019 Thursday — Trade Plan

18042019 Thursday — Trade Plan

18042019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan HTF R TTF TT

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Morn­ing routine
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good although a bit tired still
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day we failed to break out of the high of the range that we have been since April 8th
      • HTF range is still in play
      • Move down from top of the range to just below mean

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report April 16th
    • -3.096M
  • EIA report April 17th
    • Fore­cast ‑1.200M
    • ‘Actu­al’ ‑1.396M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 64.695
        • PVAH 64.640
        • PVAL 64.125
        • Low 63.729
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 63.90 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We failed to BO from High of Range and we could retest bot­tom of the range around 63.40 area with tar­gets even fur­ther down
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF Range still in play. Look for TTF trends with less momentum.
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • Hold of LIS, pos­si­ble move back towards prev high
        • LIS CAR HTF R TTF TC
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Con­sol­i­da­tion in small range with move back up to TTF200MA

Trade Idea CL

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Move from 63.90 into 64.10 and reverse
      • Tar­gets
        • 63.70, 63.50
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Hold 63.90 into move back to swing high
      • Tar­gets
        • 64.10, 64.50
  • Hypo 3 TTF Range
    • Range between 64.10 and 63.70 dur­ing EU ses­sion to poten­tial­ly set up a move dur­ing RTH

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • We are near HTF sup­port not quite near bot­tom of the range yet. 
      • TTF
        • Pos­si­ble bot­tom with what looks like pos­si­ble absorp­tion at 63.55 area
      • LTF
        • Not mak­ing new lows
    • 16:35
      • Failed to BO from TTF UKC/VWAP mean but also have not made an effort to drop
        • Basi­cal­ly flat on the LTF and long-bod­ied can­dles on TTF
    • 17:05
      • Slow­ly made a move high­er towards TTF50MA and might poten­tial­ly BO
      • Slow buy­ing pow­er no real push back by sellers
    • 17:35
      • Still very slow pace not much hap­pen­ing. No real buyers/sellers com­ing in near TTF200MA. No real PB on the TTF either so we might have a move down before pos­si­bly BO from TTF200MA but we then have inter­fer­ence from HTF200MA (which is still flat)
    • 18:05
      • PB to LTF200MA TTF50MA VWAP after what looks like a LTF TT and is look­ing to poten­tial­ly have a LTF NT TC
    • 18:35
      • Pace is still slow and we have crossed TTF200MA but BO is not con­firmed yet as we are still with­in the KC

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R TTF TT
      • TTF
        • Pos­si­ble bot­tom around 63.55 lev­el indi­cat­ed by long-bod­ied can­dles at the bot­tom of a trend near HTF sup­port area
      • LTF
        • No real LLs being made
        • Entry 63.637
    • SL
      • 63.5
    • TP
      • 63.95
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I feel calm
      • LTF is show­ing what looks like fur­ther absorp­tion around 63.60 area just above the LTF 50MA
      • We made a move to poten­tial BO from TTF UKC/VWAP but it also looks like we might run out of buy­ers here around the 63.68 lev­el which is just under the LTF200MA
      • Closed off the trade at 63.692 in profit
      • 2nd account trade is still open
        • Entry 63.60
        • Cov­ered at 63.66

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:4/18/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute Play­book setups
Com­bined Score85
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
7Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
9Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
9Trad­ing the process10Trade selec­tion
9Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10Progress toward Week­ly goal6Risk Adjust­ed Returns
44Total41
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • I did well to estab­lish a pos­si­ble DT TTF TT and after con­fir­ma­tion on the LTF went long
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Some­what accu­rate although when doing my mar­ket prep I felt as if I had lack of clar­i­ty and thought this was because I hadn’t trad­ed in a while. Hypo 1 played out although start­ed before EU session
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I did a good job here even though I was some­what tired. No excuses.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I con­firmed my feel­ing that I was using the wrong time frames for my TA and am glad I changed them
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Con­tin­ue doing the mar­ket prep
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Try­ing to look for oppor­tu­ni­ties on the LTF. TTF is where it’s at. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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