Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
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18072019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

18072019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

18072019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Fol­low health plan
    • Per­form Dai­ly Tasks
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel good but not as sharp as usu­al. Which is to be expect­ed Since I slept less than 8 hours for the last 2 days. Because of this I will give myself a 3 rating.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
    • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release Jul 16, 2019
    • Actu­al ‑1.401M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑8.129M
  • EIA report
    • Lat­est Release Jul 17, 2019
    • Actu­al ‑3.116M
    • Fore­cast ‑2.694M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑9.499M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • HHTF R LKC BD to 200MA in poten­tial exhaust­ed move from UKC in the last 2 days
  • HTF
    • Prev. High 58.455
    • PVAH 58.455
    • PPOC 57.692
    • PVAL 57.213
    • Prev. Low 56.334
    • Poten­tial anoth­er HTF D TT but this time it looks dif­fer­ent and could be a D TC instead
  • TTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Small PA range bound on HTF 
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF D TC @ LKC
    • Entry around 56.80
    • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.35
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Entry around 56.95
    • Tar­gets 57.20, 57.35, 56.65
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • TTF R 56.40 — 57.05

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • HHTF200MACAS but pos­si­ble D TC @1.0 SD, HTF D TT @LKCCAS / D TC @ LKC, TTF200MACAR twice now but it could real­ly go either way. Since I have no strong sense of clar­i­ty I’m gonna look for clues and not focus on tak­ing trades. 
    • TTF200MABO to HTF50MABO attempt

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF D TC @ LKC
    • Entry around 56.80
    • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.35
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Entry around 56.95
    • Tar­gets 57.20, 57.35, 56.65
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • TTF R 56.40 — 57.05

Date:7/18/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)

Com­bined Score89

Process Report Card (10 each)
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)

9Ses­sion PECS70%7Real-time analy­sis

10Hypos2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)

10Mar­ket Prep1/25Setups tak­en

10Dai­ly review0/110Erro­neous Entries

8Progress tow. week­ly goal0/110Erro­neous Exits


  • Week­ly Goal
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
  • Review
TradeEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSiz­ingRea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
100TTF200MACAR1ScratchedDid not BD from LKC--
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 2 — 100%
      • Did well here
    • Real-time analy­sis — 70%
      • I real­ized it was more prob­a­ble for either HYPO1 or 2 to play out and ini­tial­ly took a short trade based on 1 but scratched that after a lack of fol­low-through to the move. Then failed to switch gears into hypo 2 because PA wasn’t as clear. Then when the 1st part of the move hap­pened I was not in it and I let it go. Did well here to not act on FOMO. There was even­tu­al­ly a 2nd leg to the move which I was not famil­iar with but have doc­u­ment­ed it for my playbook. 
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • P: I did well here although had a small dip after a meal and decid­ed to switch to a stand­ing desk to con­tin­ue. This helped. 
    • E: Did well here.
    • CS: Did well here besides that dip for a lit­tle bit. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • That I’m get­ting bet­ter at my approach to the mar­ket how­ev­er not there yet on exe­cu­tion. Progress, not perfection. 
  • Positive(s)
    • Did well to be patient and not get ‘pulled into’ the mar­ket and trade every­thing I see. I do my best when I am very par­tic­u­lar on which set­up I take. The set­up that fol­lows the main nar­ra­tive of the ses­sion and not short moves here and there.
    • Did well to not react to FOMO. 
    • Trust that I am get­ting bet­ter in trad­ing based on the nar­ra­tive and can rid myself of all the noise and sub-par trades around this nar­ra­tive. If the move has hap­pened I am too late. Don’t fol­low. Focus on learn­ing on how to catch the move. Focus on clean­ly exe­cut­ing trades just like the one I scratched based on HYPO 1. This is my job. 
  • Negative(s)
    • Besides fail­ing to switch gears to hypo 2 I did great. I will replay and ana­lyze as always. 


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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