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19062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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19062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

19062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

19062019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Skip cer­tain meals.
      • No din­ner today. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good even though I slept 7 hours. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release Jun 18, 2019
    • Actu­al ‑0.812M
    • Pre­vi­ous 4.850M
  • EIA report
    • Today
    • Fore­cast ‑1.077M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 54.501
        • PVAH 53.908
        • PPOC 52.112
        • PVAL 51.700
        • Low 51.660
      • Where is the LIS?
        • Prev High area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t stay with­in the range
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • HTF UT in effect how­ev­er might be a point for short-term reversal
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF U TC @ VWAP
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Slight­ly high­er high on HTF

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • TTF200MACAS
    • Entry around 54.10
    • Tar­gets 54.50, 54.80
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • TTF200MABD
    • Entry around 53.90
    • Tar­gets 53.60
  • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 54.00 — 54.60
    • TTF R

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • TTF R in effect, 1 test of TTF200MA, stil above HTF UKC but flat on VWAP pos­si­ble BD, spread wider than usu­al at 42
    • 16:35
      • Drop to TTF R LKC pos­si­ble BD
    • 17:05
      • Lot of TTF A/D going on below LKC pos­si­ble absorp­tion for HTF move up
    • 17:35
      • Move back into TTF KC stalk­ing for a PB to TTFLKCCAS or a poten­tial TTF200MACAR
    • 18:05
      • TTF A/D going on but still with­in the KC so bull­ish on the short term but bear­ish on medi­um term
    • 18:35
      • PA slug­gish, spread still wider than usu­al at 42, no TTF200MABO still with­in KC
    • 19:05
      • TTF A/D move to prob­a­bly HTF50MA for an attack by bulls

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • TTF200MACAS
    • Entry around 54.10
    • Tar­gets 54.50, 54.80
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • TTF200MABD
    • Entry around 53.90
    • Tar­gets 53.60
  • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 54.00 — 54.60
    • TTF R









Date:6/19/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)















Com­bined Score92











Process Report Card (10 each)
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)

10Ses­sion PECS100%10Real-time analy­sis

8Hypos5/510Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)

10Trad­ing the process5/510Setups tak­en

10Dai­ly review0/510Erro­neous Entries

10Progress tow. week­ly goal2/54Erro­neous Exits

48Total
44








  • Week­ly Goal
    • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
      • I did well here. Didn’t take any trades on my 1st account but still took some exper­i­men­tal trades on my 2nd.
  • Review

Trade InfoPsy­chol­o­gy Journal
P/L ticksTradeEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSiz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
-21.5101(test) TTF200MACAS5NOSOstopped outMoved StopI took notes into my PB for this par­tic­u­lar set­up in this paretic­u­lar mar­ket con­text so will do more reviews/replays
-8.7201(test) TTF200MALKCBD5NOSOstopped outStop too tightFor this par­tic­u­lar set­up I should have used a dif­fer­ent rule for my exit rules — as I did with my next few trades where I did obey those par­tic­u­lar rules — still learn­ing and took notes in my PB
8.9300(test) TTF A/D5/10YES-Hit 2.0 SD--
5.6300(test) TTF A/D5/10YES-Hit 2.0 SD--
5.5400(test) TTF A/D10YES-Hit 2.0 SD--
-1.5500(test) TTFLKCCAS5NOScratchedscratched when i thought there was a momen­tum build-up in oppo­site direc­tion but this is the nature of the beast when A/D is going on because PA stayed with­in the tech­ni­cal lev­els of this set­up. Took note of this in my PB--
  • I’ve learned a lot from my exper­i­men­tal trades so I’m hap­py about that. I decid­ed to weigh my exper­i­men­tal trades vs my A/A+ set­up trades (which are on dif­fer­ent accounts any­way) differently
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 2 — 80 %
      • Even though we did have the BD we didn’t hit my tar­get and it was an A/D ses­sion instead.
    • Real-time analy­sis was good. I noticed PA not behav­ing accord­ing to my rules and switched to tak­ing exper­i­men­tal trades on setups I’ve seen before.
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I did well here.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I learned more about how PA behaves at cer­tain lev­els, used in my exper­i­men­tal trades, behave. Work­ing on build­ing my play­book more.
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Keep tak­ing valid (exper­i­men­tal) trades. That’s the only way to build a track record worth analyzing
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Try­ing to force my believe on the mar­ket. I didn’t real­ly do much of that today but still. Just because a pat­tern points into a cer­tain direc­tion, keep in mind that these Points Of Inter­ests I have defined for myself are just that. Points of inter­est. PA at these lev­els still have to con­firm or deny the pattern.
  • To do list
    • Work more on cat­e­go­riz­ing my PB setups + review
    • Change my DRC cri­te­ria to fit the ele­ments impor­tant to my per­son­al trading

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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