20052019 Monday — HTF Gap Up — TTF DT TC

20052019 Mon­day — HTF Gap Up — TTF DT TC

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat very lit­tle rice, noo­dles etc.
• How do you feel?
  • I am tired because didn’t sleep much on the week­end but not too bad. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release Tues­day, May 21st
• EIA report
  • Next release Wednes­day, May 22nd

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 63.803
      • PVAH 63.583
      • PPOC 63.272
      • PVAL 63.068
      • Low 62.682
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • No HTFLKCBO
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF50MABD

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • PVAHBD
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We gapped up but still with­in the HTFUKC and just reen­tered TTF UKC. Pos­si­ble Gap fill?

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • PVAHBD
    • Enter around 63.50
    • Tar­gets 63.30, 63.10, 62.90
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF50MACAS PPOCCAS
  • Enter around 63.40
  • Tar­gets 63.65, 63.85
• Hypo 3 Long
  • PVAHCAS Prev High BO
  • Enter around 63.65
  • Tar­gets 63.85, 64.05

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • A/D bars at the open, pos­si­ble TTF R day
  • 16:35
    • Pos­si­ble TTF200MABD, wait­ing for a TC setup
  • 17:05
    • TTF DT  to PVAL mak­ing a PB look­ing for TC set­up around PPOC level
  • 17:35
    • We are still above PVAL and have not BD or bounced back. Buy­ers seem to be com­ing in
  • 18:05
    • Move back to TTFVWAP with Full-bod­ied can­dles at VWAP indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble reversal
  • 18:35
    • Drop to HTFLKC and now retest­ing TTF VWAP again. Price slowed down and since we are so close to HTFLKC I will not take anoth­er short
  • 19:05
    • Price returned to TTF VWAP LKC PVAL area pos­si­ble reversal
  • 19:35
    • TTF50MACAR pos­si­ble HTFLKCBD

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1  (2nd account dur­ing AS)
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Gap up at AS open fol­lowed by LHs
    • TTF
      • Entry 63.81
    • LTF
  • SL
  • TP
    • 63.52
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 63.73

• T2 (2nd account)
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF50MABO after a gap up at AS open
    • TTF
      • Move to TTF 2.0 SD
      • Entry 63.10
    • LTF
      • LTF TC @ 50MA
  • SL
  • TP
    • 62.86
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Think­ing it will reverse since there are full-bod­ied can­dles at TTF VWAP and we haven’t made a sig­nif­i­cant LL 
    • Cov­ered at 63.02 in prof­it because we had hit HTFLKC

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • PVAHBD
    • Enter around 63.50
    • Tar­gets 63.30, 63.10, 62.90
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF50MACAS PPOCCAS
  • Enter around 63.40
  • Tar­gets 63.65, 63.85
• Hypo 3 Long
  • PVAHCAS Prev High BO
  • Enter around 63.65
  • Tar­gets 63.85, 64.05

Date:	5/20/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
Com­bined Score	77
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	10	Hypos
7	Ses­sion PECS	6	Real-time analy­sis
8	Trad­ing the process	7	Trade selec­tion
10	Dai­ly review	5	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8	Progress toward Week­ly goal	7	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
42	Total	35

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
• Review
  • 3 oppor­tu­ni­ties 2 taken
    • 1) dur­ing AS exper­i­men­tal trade on 2nd account I will incor­po­rate this into my PB for fur­ther study
    • 2) Did not take the set­up — replay event + work into PB
    • 3) TTF TC

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) Gap Up, short­ed for a pos­si­ble gap fill	-	10	NO	Cov­ered (in prof­it) because I had to leave my desk and could not active­ly mon­i­tor my position	-	-
1	0	TTF NT	Not tak­en	-	-	-	TTF was show­ing price action in line with A/D behav­ior and KC was widen­ing so I was expect­ing a TTF R play, instead it was a TTF NT and I missed my entry. I did­n’t wan­na chase the mar­ket so I let it go and wait­ed for a TTF TC opportunity	I will replay the event and include ‘new’ mar­ket struc­ture into my playbook
0	0	TTF TC	-	5	YES	HTFLKC	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO1 100%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I am tired from the week­end and def­i­nite­ly wasn’t as sharp today although I feel I still did well man­ag­ing my thoughts and emotions
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned more about the mar­ket struc­ture around a ‘Gap’ day
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Keep observ­ing like a scientist
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Even though I didn’t do it but I should still warn myself that my 2nd account is not to take trades I won’t on my 1st but it is to take exper­i­men­tal trades accord­ing to my PB.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.