20210708 Trade Review DAX

10 Jul 20210708 Trade Review DAX

Play: Failed Auc­tion (bad), Uni­di­rec­tion­al Day

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

Mar­ket Narrative

Pre­vi­ous day exceed­ed ADR by 1.5x clos­ing as a Bull Engulf. Expectan­cy is for price to at least retrace that. Which it did. 0.1xASR Open Below Val­ue, with­in range, mod­er­ate imbal­ance. IB tra­versed down 0.95xASR. 

How was the Entry?

I failed to notice that there Price ducked below IB in C as well as D negat­ing a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for a failed auc­tion. Also, the pos­si­bil­i­ty for a uni­di­rec­tion­al day as Asia had trad­ed down as well as Frankie Fake­out. Then Lon­don fol­lowed suit. So this Failed Auc­tion play was bad. 

I had entered on a M15 Inside Bar expect­ing a tran­si­tion to M15 Three Inside Up / M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar. Which did come. But again, due to the nature of the con­text this was a wrong play. 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Good. Stan­dard size. 

How was the prof­it target?

3R

How was the Exit?

I scratched the trade after hav­ing been point­ed out to the actu­al nar­ra­tive. 0R. Wait­ed for a pull­back to entry and cut the trade. The trade did go to over 0.5R before vio­lent­ly revers­ing and it would have stopped me out. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

-1R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

-1R

What did I do well?

I did well to try out if not tak­ing into con­sid­er­a­tion the wrong nar­ra­tive I was expect­ing. I expect­ed due to the long-bias in equi­ties as well as FF had trad­ed down. As well as IB tra­vers­ing 0.95xASR (expect­ing respon­sive activ­i­ty) that there was a high­er like­li­hood for a Failed Auction. 

What could I have done better?

I could have noticed the pos­si­bil­i­ty for a uni­di­rec­tion­al day due to Asia and Lon­don hav­ing trad­ed down. Then I could have tak­en note of price hav­ing ducked below IB more than 1 TPO peri­od mak­ing the chances for a Failed Auc­tion slimmer. 

Obser­va­tions

Asia, FF, Lon­don trad­ing down makes a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for a uni­di­rec­tion­al day. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

Due to the nar­ra­tive I could have entered on a short look­ing for a weak­ness from with­in IB. This came in the form of a M5 Evening Star at M15 Sup­ply (coin­cid­ing with M15 VWAP in DT)

TAGS: Below Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance, Uni­di­rec­tion­al Day, ADR got Exhaust­ed, Wide IB, Trend is UP 2/3, Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR, 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

20210708 Pre­mar­ket Prep DAX

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210708

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