20210715 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 28 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a HH and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed as a huge D1 Bear Engulf 1.8xADR and closed above W1-C‑D 1.96800 but below D1 QHi reject­ing it.
  • 2 rejec­tions of H4 QLo with 2nd one a Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.96990 but still below D1 QHi but closed with­in new­ly formed H4 Sup­ply at W1/MN Supply
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1203
  • ASR: 796
    • 20
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.98910
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96747

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • With­in Value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A.
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing mar­ket. H4 closed as a Ham­mer after retrac­ing to new­ly formed H4 C‑dem. Val­ue is with­in sup­ply. D1 QHi reject­ed and test­ed but trend is still up 3/3. Prev. Day 1.8xADR.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, prob­a­bly low ini­tia­tive if any
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2 in case of I3 day. 
• Hypo 5
  • Val­ue Rejec­tion Down, sus­tained auc­tion, risky due to open sen­ti­ment and trend, late-sus­tained auc­tion could be favored.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.97725
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.96990
• W1-C‑D 1.96800
• MN-C‑D 1.95263

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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