14 Sep 20210913 Trade Review DAX
Play: Strength From Within IBR
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Price slowdown on D1 when arriving at larger timeframe demand. Asia had traded higher after a H4 QLo rejection. Trend was up 2/3. Close proximity to value edge with 0.01xASR below value, within range indicates a moderate imbalance and higher probability of a value acceptance. This acceptance came during IB. IBR was 0.66xASR wide indicating a higher probability for a move back into IBR if there was a probe outside of it ie. IB extension. However, due to price having rotated through value and was consolidating above VAH (plus DAX being equities) I decided the more probable play would be a strength from within IBR long. Then monitor for a sustained auction which came later in the session.
What hypo was it?
Strength from within IBR
Due to the wide IBR I could have put this higher in my ranking of the hypos. At least I included it and most of all I executed on it.
How was the Entry?
The Entry was good although I was stalking a better entry to be honest. When price hit the M5 demand I was thinking to just go long. Then I thought let’s see if there’s a reaction first. When the bull engulf came it was quite weak. The following M5 was a soji with slightly longer selling wick so I waited for a RBR to complete before entering. This was okay as I was still within my area that allowed for good SL placement.
How was the SL placement and sizing?
I used a standard sized SL and this was okay.
How was the profit target?
ASR exhaustion was at 1.5R but I expected price to move through it a bit more hitting 2R before possibly reversing as I have seen that happen many times.
How was the Exit?
I took the trade off at 2R maybe a few pips too early but hey fuck it. Price eventually started reversing so I am happy with my decision.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
1.6R, 1.5R in overlap noise. End of Day would have taken out my SL ‑1R.
What did I do well?
I did well to understand the narrative and let it overrule the wide IBR implication and go long anyway instead of waiting for a failed auction.
What could I have done better?
I am very happy with this trade. I monitored for a continued validation of my thesis. When E extended one pip above IB I thought okay not the strongest but at least they’re trying to take it higher. Then in G price finally made its move.
A rotation through value has a continuation bias instead of a reversal.
TAGS: Below Value, Within Range, Moderate Imbalance,
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day