20221216 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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16 Dec 20221216 Premarket Prep Gold

Posted at 10:06h in Gold, Gold Premarket Prep, Trading Plan by
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#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price made a HH but is now trad­ing above body, with­in range, at MN VWAP
  • W1
    • Price made a HH but is now trad­ing below body, with­in range, see­ing a react­ing off W1 QHi

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • Huge D1 Three Inside Down giv­ing D1-C‑S 1807.532 at W1/D1 QHi tak­ing out D1 demand HiDC, cur­rent­ly trad­ing at D1 VWAP in UT coin­cid­ing with D1-C‑D 1770.923 HiDC
  • H4
    • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4, some con­sol­i­da­tion at H4 LKC with longer sell­ing wicks, trad­ing with­in Wide H4 QLo
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 2/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous 
  • LN Open
    • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.53
    • Open With­in Value
    • Asia trad­ed higher
    • 0.32xASR IBR
    • Pos­si­ble Fri­day Profit-Taking

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • N.A.

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Short
    • Failed Auc­tion
  • Hypo 2
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 3
    • Long
    • Failed Auc­tion
  • Hypo 4
    • Long
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 2

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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juan l.

Good evening compadre !

Do you have any chil­dren ? I have two 15yr old girl and a 1yr old girl, If the teenag­er isn’t inter­rupt­ing me when i’m trad­ing , the baby with the wife will. just anoth­er lev­el of dif­fi­cul­ty added to the mix. I’m seri­ous­ly think­ing of going to a co-work­ing space. well that’s the end of my rant , now to business.

1. So its Fri­day and The week­ly can­dle is trad­ing at the bot­tom of a bear­ish can­dle and fri­days are take prof­it days (as you men­tioned). That being said, how does that affect your out­look for today? 

2. Lon­don Ses­sion is less active, what do you do to account for that ? Seems like Mar­ket stalk­er meth­ods have less prob­a­ble out­comes for Lon­don, but you’ve been profitable.

3. In addi­tion to the 2nd ques­tion, Is alot of your trad­ing range trad­ing ? Is that what you use the VWAP/Moving averages/keltner channels ?

4. A bearish/bullish pat­tern with­in the IB with a break­out of the IB and the TPO clos­ing out­side along with a sec­ond TPO clos­ing out­side of the IB, could that be part of a sus­tained auc­tion setup ?

I must say i am def­i­nite­ly enjoy­ing learn­ing from Dee and i am eter­nal­ly grate­ful to you for answer­ing my ques­tions. Trad­ing is a lone­ly and sup­port one way or anoth­er is always need­ed. I won­der why she does­n’t do a trad­ing room ? Regard­less thanks to you both.

Cheers !!

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T3chAddict

Good morn­ing compadre!
I do not have chil­dren no. If it hap­pens it hap­pens but I can see how hav­ing one or two in your case can be an “obsta­cle” in trad­ing. Even with no kids I too am think­ing to relo­cate to a co-work­ing space. Besides trad­ing I also run my busi­ness from home. SO it’s a lot of time spent in my office. Hav­ing a ded­i­cat­ed place to go too can also elle­vi­ate to always “do more”. Burn out is a real thing.
1. So you say price is trad­ing at the bot­tom of a bear­ish can­dle on the week­ly but I fail to under­stand which bear­ish can­dle you are refer­ring to. The devel­op­ing ie. cur­rent can­dle? If so, it has­n’t closed yet as I men­tioned before. It is how­ev­er, trad­ing with­in the buy­ing range of last week’s candle.
Fri­day Prof­it-tak­ing indi­cates to a poss­bil­i­ty for insti­tu­tion­al traders to take prof­its before the week­end as they like to stuff their pock­ets before going on a ben­der over the week­end 🙂 And it is them that we try to fol­low when trad­ing. An easy exam­ple would be if Mon­day through Thurs­day would have seen an uptrend than it is more like­ly Fri­day could see prof­it-tak­ing and thus a retrace­ment . This short term impact on price is all we need as day traders.
Today it’s some­what dif­fer­ent because price has already seen a big sell off yes­ter­day. exceed­ing ADR which in and of itself could see a counter move ie. go up in this case. Prof­it-tak­ing would be in line with that same direc­tion­al cue. For me, price is also con­sol­i­dat­ing on H4 at H4 LKC in R coin­cid­ing with H4 QLo and could also be rea­son for an attempt to a lon­hg-biased move. Now all of this does­n’t mean any­thing if your par­tic­u­lar set­up that you are try­ing to trade does­n’t fit the nar­ra­tive. Right now we have E TPO mak­ing a HH after C broke IB. Prefer­ably for any sus­tained auc­tion you would want it ear­ly into the ses­sion. For LN that is the 1st DTTZ (C/D TPO). How­ev­er, late­ly I have observed price mak­ing a 2nd DTTZ Sus­tained Auc­tion under sim­i­lar cir­cum­stances so that is what I am active­ly for­ward-test­ing right now.
2. Yes Lon­don is less active for Gold as its main ses­sion is the NY one. How­ev­er, ranges are wide enough to offer enough oppor­tu­ni­ties to trade. I actu­al­ly don’t remem­ber if I asked you but do you trade the LN ses­sion as well? Would it not make more sense to trade the US ses­sion giv­en your location?
MS meth­ods have enough prob­a­ble out­comes for Lon­don. Don’t wor­ry. Some­times we can even see Lon­don trade much wider ranges than NY. So what do I do to account for LN being less active? I try to frame it with­in the con­text of the Dai­ly nar­ra­tive of which the move I expect to hap­pen dur­ing NY as that is its main ses­sion. So basi­cal­ly often I am look­ing for LN ses­sion to pro­vide with a move to set­up the move com­ing dur­ing NY if that makes sense. If you fol­low the Cat and Mouse method that Dee teach­es this too will make more sense. Sim­ply put. Asia goes up, LN goes down, NY goes up or vice versa.
Continued

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T3chAddict

3. No it is not. I like to align myself with the nar­ra­tive of the day and trade what­ev­er I see (giv­en I am pre­pared for it). Hav­ing said that it seems redun­dant to say that as we are all try­ing to align our­selves with the nar­ra­tive of the day. I do not have a pref­er­ence for any par­tic­u­lar set­up or nar­ra­tive. Although my stats do show that I am more a con­trar­i­an as I like to go against trends ie. mean rever­sion. Even with­in these I seem to have a slight favor to the short side as well. Although these pref­er­ences don’t have a sig­nif­i­cant impact on how I view the markets.
I use VWAP/MAs/KCs as a visu­al aid to reflect what it is that I think might be unfold­ing. If there is a SD zone that hap­pens to coin­cide with how­ev­er I view those indi­ca­tors it is just that big­ger of a con­fi­dence ‘boost­er’ than when it is not. As Dee likes to put it they are sup­port­ing fac­tors to what at it’s core is still the MS method. Although I have tweaked cer­tain aspects of the method based on my per­son­al obser­va­tions. Here is where the dis­cre­tion comes in. But this is a talk for much much lat­er in your trad­ing journey 🙂
4. Yes that would be a good sus­tained auc­tion. Although if a sec­ond TPO has already closed out­side of IB then it also needs to have made a HH/LL plus keep­ing the open sen­ti­ment in mind you could already be too late to join the auc­tion. Cer­tain sit­u­a­tions need you to enter on a break of IB. Cer­tain sit­u­a­tions need a TPO close out­side before you enter ie. late-sus­tained auc­tion (more prefer­able on a re-test of IB, but oth­er facors as the length of the TPO clos­ing out­side of IB could impact your deci­sion-mak­ing on this par­tic­u­lar set­up). Some­times you can enter ‘ear­ly’ on the bearish/bullish pat­tern from with­in IB with­out break of IB if trade loca­tion is right. Then you can mon­i­tor the break of IB as part of you OODA loop.

THank you very much. I have to say you are not the first one to ask ques­tions but you sure are ask­ing good ques­tions. So keep up that inquis­i­tive mind. 

Trad­ing is indeed very lone­ly hence my blog. “Luck­i­ly” the MS method is not for every­one (a.k.a peo­ple that are look­ing for a quick way to make a buck) and most peo­ple are deterred by the amount of infor­ma­tion and work you’d have to put in to under­stand these meth­ods. I set out to be able to trade all mar­ket con­di­tions. These strate­gies help you to do that. So in essence you are “nev­er” lack­ing for a trade oppor­tu­ni­ty. No mat­ter ranging/trending.

I think I remem­ber talk­ing to Dee about a trad­ing room and this is what I think I remem­ber. In a trad­ing room there are so many peo­ple that have no clue shout­ing oh buy here sell there which makes for a very con­vu­lat­ed space. Apart from that it increas­es pres­sure on a trad­er if oth­ers are watch­ing you like a hawk. Added pres­sure is not what we are look­ing to have. Although I’ve seen Dee recent­ly put out a live trad­ing video so the next eve­o­lu­tion­ary step for her could very well be trad­ing room of some sorts.
Thank you for tak­ing an inter­est and keep it up. If we don’t speak I wish you a very good week­end. I’m done with my DAX trade and gonna call it a day/week.
Do your work but then also spend time away from the charts. Spend time with the fam. Do some­thing fun 🙂 What do you do for fun?

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T3chAddict

By the way I’ll be look­ing to a bet­ter com­ment­ing plu­g­in for my web­site. I think writ­ing half a book here (as I get very long-wind­ed) in the com­ment sec­tion isn’t the most clear and easy to read as I’d like.

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juan l.

I Made my first trade using MS method. 2:1 R/R !!

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juan l.

GOLD/USD Lon­don session

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T3chAddict

Con­grat­u­la­tions! Now, take me through your thought process. Before trade. Dur­ing trade. After Exit. It could be as sim­ple or elab­o­rate as you like 🙂

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juan l.

I used to be a scalper so 15min felt like alot of time to plan my entry/exit here was my thought process:

Dai­ly : drops into 1D demand zone w/ 1D‑C 1784
4H: Con­sol­i­da­tion base around 4H Qlo for the past cou­ple days
Asia mar­ket drops right before lon­don open
Lon­don Open : Out­side VAL with­in range
A&B TPO’s find sup­port on 1D‑C 1784.8 danc­ing around inside M30 Qlo
C TPO : breaks IB to the upside / can­dle rejects 1D-D-C1784.8 with large buy wick but still clos­es inside IB
D TPO : inside IB / can­dle again rejects 1D-D-C1784 large buy wick clos­es bull­ish toward high­er end of IB
E TPO : breaks IB to the upside con­fi­dent­ly , past C TPO / Can­dle breaks out of M30 Qlo, nice bull­ish candle.
I looked left and saw no oppos­ing zones that would impede my trade meet­ing a decent T/P.

As E TPO was break­ing past the C TPO i began cal­cu­lat­ing sto­ploss based on ASR/3 an (16.6point S/L)
Take prof­it would be 33.2 points and that was an accept­able area to do so, It was a recent pre­vi­ous M30 sup­ply and a H4Qlo.
Dropped down to the 5min to look for a good S/L area. decid­ed on below pre­vi­ous bull­ish can­dle, below the cur­rent VAH.
Due to opti­mal stop place­ment ( avoid­ing the Algos ) I decid­ed on 1788.0 for S/L
When E closed I imme­di­ate­ly enter the trade. S/L 1788.0 — T/P 1793.5.

I mon­i­tored the trade on the 5min T/F. If a can­dle closed below the last 5min swing low. i would exit the trade
at a -.6R loss. After the trade closed past the pre­vi­ous 5min swing high, i walked away to avoid grasshop­ping out of the trade
(a prob­lem had before). Meet my T/P very cleanly. 

Please pro­vide any Tips, tricks and espe­cial­ly cri­tiques. I wel­come crit­i­cism as it only will bet­ter my trades. Enjoy your weekend !

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T3chAddict

Is this Futures or Spot?

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juan l.

Mup­pet meter flash­ing red for me ! 🤣 fol­low­ing Dee on futures and you on spot is mix­ing me up !

I did the trade on spot, but when you asked me to go back and explain i looked at futures.
but i just looked at the chart. SR lo on spot coin­cides with 1D-D-C1784 on futures.
there is also a 10$ dif­fer­ence on price
every­thing else is very similar

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T3chAddict

The open sen­ti­ment on spot was with­in val­ue. This inher­ent­ly changes the dynam­ic. There was no test of D1 Demand. And I see some con­ges­tion even with E TPO clos­ing above IB it still closed with­in val­ue and did not reject val­ue until F TPO closed above. So I would say this was a bit more of a risky trade. I was for­ward-test­ing this par­tic­u­lar trade as I men­tioned before. I logged it as shown in the picture.
A sus­tained Auc­tion works out bet­ter ear­li­er in the ses­sion. Anoth­er piece of infor­ma­tion that I was test­ing as the move hap­pened at 2nd DTTZ. I for­ward-test this as 2nd DTTZ Sus­tained Auc­tion. Sup­port­ing nar­ra­tive: Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR, price trad­ing at D1 VWAP in UT, price con­sol­i­dat­ing with­in H4 QLo at H4 LKC in R, trend being up 2/3.
Your trade man­age­ment seems sound. Good job.

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