22052019 Wednesday — HTF DTC — TTF R 200MACAR

22052019 Wednes­day — HTF DTC — TTF R 200MACAR

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Don’t eat much rice, noo­dles, etc.
• How do you feel?
  • Good, although not my sharpest
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release yes­ter­day, May 21, 2019
  • Actu­al 2.400M
  • Fore­cast ‑0.600M
  • Pre­vi­ous 8.600M
• EIA report
  • Today

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 63.763
      • PVAH 63.617
      • PPOC 63.419
      • PVAL 63.096
      • Low 62.773
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev Low area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • No HTF200MA mean rever­sion (yet)
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We are in a HTF DT

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Prev Low CAR
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Drop below HTFLKC but small bod­ied bars indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble HHTF action going on, TTF mak­ing small swings per­haps a TTF R is upon us which would be in line with HHTF A/D behavior

Trade Idea (made lat­er into the session)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Prev Low CAR
  • Entry around 62.60
  • Tar­gets 62.40, 62.10
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF TT
  • Entry around 62.65
  • Tar­gets 63.05
• Hypo 3 Short 
  • HTF DTC
  • Entry around 62.50
  • Tar­gets 62.05, 61.85

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:35
    • Pos­si­ble HTF DTC although AS shows small-bod­ied can­dles pos­si­bly HHTF A/D going on and thus pos­si­ble TTF R day
    • Spread (44) is wider than usu­al show­ing less liq­uid­i­ty in the market
  • 17:05
    • TTF R in effect
  • 17:35
    • HTF DTC, TTF R, LTF50MABD to Pos­si­ble HTF TT
  • 18:05
    • Pos­si­ble HTF TT, TTF R 50MABO + PB, LTF200MACAS to pos­si­ble TTF200MABO (Pos­si­ble HTFLKCPB)
  • 18:35
    • We had a test­ing of TTF200MA and then dropped to 50MA, (pos­si­ble HTFLKCCAS here)
  • 19:05
    • A/D between 50MA and 200MA, pos­si­ble TTF200MABO

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF DT
    • TTF
      • TTF NT
      • Entry 10 @ 62.54
    • LTF
      • LTF50MAPB to LTF200MABO
  • SL
    • 62.478
  • TP
    • 62.619
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Scratched at 62.557 because of a drop back to VWAP (entry point)

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (made lat­er into the session)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Prev Low CAR
  • Entry around 62.60
  • Tar­gets 62.40, 62.10
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF TT
  • Entry around 62.65
  • Tar­gets 63.05
• Hypo 3 Short 
  • HTF DTC
  • Entry around 62.50
  • Tar­gets 62.05, 61.85

	Date:	5/22/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	95
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	5	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	10	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied
	10	Trad­ing the process	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	0	10	Erro­neous Exits
	45	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
• Review
  • Took 1 set­up but saw that it wasn’t going my way and scratched the position
  • Then there was an oppor­tu­ni­ty to take an exper­i­men­tal trade on my 2nd account but I missed it. I was too involved with tak­ing notes of the rela­tion of mar­ket struc­ture to the exper­i­men­tal set­up. Also it didn’t help that I was feel­ing drowsy at best.

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution	Action
0	0	TTF NT	-	10	NO	scratched because drop back to VWAP (entry point)	-	-	-
1	Not Tak­en	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF R	Not Tak­en	-	Not Tak­en	Not Tak­en	I was hes­i­tat­ing because I just saw the rela­tion of the mar­ket struc­ture pro­vid­ing con­text to the set­up so I doc­u­ment­ed it and then missed my entry, also feel­ing a bit drowsy	Don’t eat too much before trad­ing and sleep well	Replay event

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 played out 100% 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Phys­i­cal­ly I was not sharp at all. I think it was because I ate more than I usu­al­ly do and that’s what sent me into a food-coma state. I will not do that again. Regard­less, I usu­al­ly make mis­takes when I am feel­ing unfo­cused and I did not this time so I’m hap­py about that. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Already knew this but got con­firmed once more, that my setups hap­pen on all time frames which the sci­en­tist in me finds very inter­est­ing as well as pleasing.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Focus on under­stand­ing mar­ket struc­ture and trade ‘with it’ or learn from it to add to my Play­book. Add. Back­test. Test. Ana­lyze. Learn. Get con­sis­tent. Size up. Test. Ana­lyze. Learn. Get con­sis­tent. Buy Lamborghini 🙂
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t trade off the short-term time frame. That is not where the big­ger moves are but only good for scalp­ing. Which can be VERY RISKY so don’t. Just keep focussing on mar­ket struc­ture as your guide. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.