22082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

22 Aug 22082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

22082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • No rice, noo­dles, bread, etc. in the evenings
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • HHTF 200MA BO F crossed down VWAP but still above 50
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 57.052
    • PVAH 56.679
    • PPOC 56.253
    • PVAL 55.887
    • Prev. Low 55.492
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • HTF test­ing 200 with pos­si­ble BD or CAS
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • TTD D TT VWAP so bull­ish on the short term will need more con­fir­ma­tion on medi­um to long term

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC VWAP
  • Entry around 55.55
  • Tar­gets 55.40, 55.20, 55.05
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF LKCCAS
  • Entry around 55.75
  • Tar­gets 55.90, 56.10, 56.30
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF Ex. D TT
  • Entry around 55.25
  • Tar­gets 55.40, 55.60

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • Fol­low min­i­mum R/R rule
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF R Over­sold @ 200 into 50 test
    • TTF
      • TTF D TC 50 to TT to 200MABO
    • Bias
      • Long unless TTF R S‑Line gets bro­ken then we could see a HTF50MACAR
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble 50MABO set­ting up
    • TTF
      • PA still above 200, UKC and VWAP look­ing to poten­tial­ly fake a drop and go higher
    • Bias
      • Long until we break TTF VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • 50MACAR to VWAP but per­haps a CAS here as well
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought AD just above 200
    • Bias
      • Uncer­tain
        • Long above 55.95
        • Short under 55.75
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Wait for con­fir­ma­tion first
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Test­ing 50
    • TTF
      • Move from 200 pos­si­bly exhausted
    • Bias
      • Long 
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF50MABO
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • 50MA area, pos­si­ble BO or CAR
    • TTF
      • TTF R S‑Line slop­ing up
    • Bias
      • Unclear
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • Unclear ATM
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC VWAP
  • Entry around 55.55
  • Tar­gets 55.40, 55.20, 55.05
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF LKCCAS
  • Entry around 55.75
  • Tar­gets 55.90, 56.10, 56.30
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF Ex. D TT
  • Entry around 55.25
  • Tar­gets 55.40, 55.60

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	7/23/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	88
Process Report Card (10 each)
	7	Ses­sion PECS
	8	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	8	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	43	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	10	Setups tak­en
1/2	5	Erro­neous Entries
0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	45	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • I did well here
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • Fol­low min­i­mum R/R rule
      • I failed to do so and then I got more focused on scalping
        • Now I can feel bad about not fol­low­ing my min­i­mum tick rule or just accept that I am bet­ter in short term trad­ing. Haven’t decid­ed yet since I do hate leav­ing mon­ey on the table. I want to see If I can move from all in all out to all in and scale out but not sure if I’m com­fort­able doing that. I’ll think about this some more and as always replay the screen recording. 
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
    • I did well here
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
1	1	0	0	TTF D TC 50	10	TP
2	2	0	0	Quick scalp	10	Quick scalp	-
2	3	0	1	HTF VWAP CAR	10	Scratched	Took too long to make a move
2	4	0	1	10	Scratched
3	5	1	0	HTF 50MABO	10	SO	Stopped out
3	6	0	0	HTF 50MABO	10	Quick scalp
4	7	0	0	HTF 50MACAS	10	Quick scalp
5	8	0	0	HTF 50MA Area	10	Quick scalp	Stopped out
5	9	0	0	HTF 50MACAS	10	Quick scalp
5	10	0	0	HTF 50MACAS	50	Quick scalp
6	11	0	0	HTF 200MACAS	10	Quick scalp	Stopped out
7	12	0	0	HTF 50MABD	50	Quick scalp
8	13	0	0	HTF 200MABD attempt	50	Quick scalp
8	14	0	0	HTF 200MABD	50	Quick scalp
9	15	0	0	HTF UKCBD	50	Quick scalp
9	16	0	0	HTF UKCBD+PB	50	Quick scalp

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 100%
    • Hypo 2 for EU ses­sion was right
    • Did not make a hypo for the US ses­sion but just went with what I saw
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That I can scalp along the direc­tion of my mar­ket nar­ra­tive and the pat­terns I trade on TTF, based on HTF, are also valid on my LTF. I knew this before but nev­er real­ly focused on trad­ing the LTF. I focused on tak­ing trades accord­ing to my pat­tern on LTF that coin­cid­ed with the pat­tern on TTF in the direc­tion of my HTF which worked pret­ty good. The pat­tern on the LTF obvi­ous­ly gives short­er tar­gets so scalp­ing is manda­to­ry here. 
• Positive(s)
  • Great exper­i­ment­ing with scalp­ing this might actu­al­ly be more my thing since I don’t like to hold for long any­way. I was try­ing to force myself to learn to hold longer but why not try and exper­i­ment with high­er win rate with low­er ticks won
  • After I got into the flow (and clear­er mar­ket nar­ra­tive on my side) I increased my posi­tion sizing
  • Trad­ed the US ses­sion as well for a few hours
• Negative(s)
  • I scratched trade 3 and 4 to only see the mar­ket move big in my favor so trade 5 was a result of my try­ing to chase and make up for that which luck­i­ly did not work and I got pun­ished and thus stopped out. Good. On to the next one. 
  • Trade 11 was a trade I was not too sure about and I took it any­way. Luck­i­ly for me I decreased my siz­ing and I got stopped out. Usu­al­ly when I don’t have this voice in my head scream­ing to take a trade I get stopped out and it means I lack clar­i­ty on mar­ket narrative..

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.