
25 Apr 25042019 Thursday — Trade Plan
25042019 Thursday — Trade Plan
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Eating less
- How do you feel?
- Tired because I have not been sleeping regularly the last 2 weeks
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
Market Prep
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Apr 23, 2019
- Actual 6.900M
- Previous ‑3.096M
- EIA report
- Apr 24, 2019
- Actual 5.479M
- Forecast 1.255M
- Previous ‑1.396M
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- High 66.391
- PVAH 66.030
- PPOC 65.899
- PVAL 65.698
- Low 65.645
- Where is the LIS?
- 65.95 area
- What didn’t happen?
- We didn’t BO from 66.30 area so sentiment could be shifting to bearish or just that we are still stuck in a range
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- After we migrated higher last Monday we have been balancing ever since.
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- A BD from Prev Low area could signal a shift in sentiment to bearish on the HTF and possibly the start of a short/medium term DT
- Hold of Prev. Low into top of the range.
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- Ducked below Prev Low but bounced back up
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- Move to 65.90 area and reverse into 65.65
- Hypo 2 Long
- BO from 65.90 + PB long into 66.30
- Hypo 3 Short
- BD from Prev Low short into 65.30, 64.30
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- After open we had a PB to TTF 50MA and then had a TTF TC
- TTF UT from HTF R LKC but we haven’t gotten to HTF UKC yet and TTF doesn’t show signs of TT yet
- 16:35
- TTF shows loss of momentum but it could be a setup for an exhausted move into HTF UKC before there could be a reversal or we BD from VWAP and start the TTF TT
- 17:05
- Slowing down of PA near HTF UKC possible TTF TT location add to position after TTF VWAP BD
- 17:35
- We didn’t BD from TTF VWAP
- 18:05
- TTF UT is still in progress
- 18:35
- BD from VWAP waiting for PB to go short
- 19:05
- TTF VWAP BD PB short entry
- 19:35
- Bounce off TTF50MA
- 20:05
- Potential drop from TTF50MA bu8t potential support from HTF VWAP
- 16:05
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- HTF
- HTF R near UKC
- TTF
- TTF TT
- LTF
- LTF TT
- Entry: 66.111
- HTF
- SL
- 66.252
- TP
- 65.936
- Trade Management
- 2nd CAR of LTF UKC but we’re still above the TTF UKC/VWAP waiting for that BD so I can add to position
- Staying calm
- I was seeing that it was more likely to go the other way but didn’t get out
- Got stopped out at 66.249
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- HTF
- HTF R Doji right under UKC
- TTF
- TTF VWAP BD PB
- LTF
- LTF 50MA CAR
- Entry 66.111
- HTF
- SL
- 66.155
- TP
- 65.912
- Trade Management
- I feel calm and collected but I think that the trade will go against me since we showed exhaustion on the LTF going down and we are now possible BO from 50/200MA
- There’s no sign from sellers coming in
- I’ll take myself out right above the TTF VWAP around 66.170
- Staying in because we are still far away from TTF UKC
- We are below the TTF50MA but have support from HTF VWAP let’s see if we can break this. There could be some absorption of sellers coming in here to setup the HTF BO
- Covered at 66.038
- Why? What do I see?
Daily Report Card
Date: | 4/25/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute Playbook setups |
Combined Score | 81 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
8 | Pre-market routines | 7 | Hypos |
9 | Session PECS | 8 | Real-time analysis |
8 | Trading the process | 7 | Trade selection |
8 | Daily review | 9 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
10 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 7 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
43 | Total | 38 | |
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- Move to 65.90 area and reverse into 65.65
- Hypo 2 Long
- BO from 65.90 + PB long into 66.30
- Hypo 3 Short
- BD from Prev Low short into 65.30, 64.30
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- My first trade I took too early and should have held out a bit longer but I’m happy with recognizing my setup and hopping on board with the second trade and riding it until my exit hit
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 2 kinda played out but it was a short opportunity and not a long. I recognized the loss of momentum in the move up to 66.20 area and went short
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did very well here because I sticked to my setup
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- Keep it simple
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Taking my setups
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Be too eager to hop in. Be patient and wait for the right timing. I will go over this particular setup and analyze best case scenario for my playbook tomorrow.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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