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25042019 Thursday — Trade Plan - Bear Market Trader
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25042019 Thursday — Trade Plan

25042019 Thursday — Trade Plan

25042019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat­ing less
  • How do you feel?
    • Tired because I have not been sleep­ing reg­u­lar­ly the last 2 weeks
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Apr 23, 2019
    • Actu­al 6.900M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑3.096M
  • EIA report
    • Apr 24, 2019
    • Actu­al 5.479M
    • Fore­cast 1.255M
    • Pre­vi­ous ‑1.396M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 66.391
        • PVAH 66.030
        • PPOC 65.899
        • PVAL 65.698
        • Low 65.645
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 65.95 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t BO from 66.30 area so sen­ti­ment could be shift­ing to bear­ish or just that we are still stuck in a range
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • After we migrat­ed high­er last Mon­day we have been bal­anc­ing ever since.
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A BD from Prev Low area could sig­nal a shift in sen­ti­ment to bear­ish on the HTF and pos­si­bly the start of a short/medium term DT
        • Hold of Prev. Low into top of the range.
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Ducked below Prev Low but bounced back up

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Move to 65.90 area and reverse into 65.65
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • BO from 65.90 + PB long into 66.30
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • BD from Prev Low short into 65.30, 64.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • After open we had a PB to TTF 50MA and then had a TTF TC
      • TTF UT from HTF R LKC but we haven’t got­ten to HTF UKC yet and TTF doesn’t show signs of TT yet
    • 16:35
      • TTF shows loss of momen­tum but it could be a set­up for an exhaust­ed move into HTF UKC before there could be a rever­sal or we BD from VWAP and start the TTF TT
    • 17:05
      • Slow­ing down of PA near HTF UKC pos­si­ble TTF TT loca­tion add to posi­tion after TTF VWAP BD
    • 17:35
      • We didn’t BD from TTF VWAP
    • 18:05
      • TTF UT is still in progress
    • 18:35
      • BD from VWAP wait­ing for PB to go short
    • 19:05
      • TTF VWAP BD PB short entry
    • 19:35
      • Bounce off TTF50MA
    • 20:05
      • Poten­tial drop from TTF50MA bu8t poten­tial sup­port from HTF VWAP

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R near UKC
      • TTF
        • TTF TT
      • LTF
        • LTF TT
        • Entry: 66.111
    • SL
      • 66.252
    • TP
      • 65.936
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • 2nd CAR of LTF UKC but we’re still above the TTF UKC/VWAP wait­ing for that BD so I can add to position
      • Stay­ing calm
      • I was see­ing that it was more like­ly to go the oth­er way but didn’t get out
      • Got stopped out at 66.249
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF R Doji right under UKC
      • TTF
        • TTF VWAP BD PB
      • LTF
        • LTF 50MA CAR
        • Entry 66.111
    • SL
      • 66.155
    • TP
      • 65.912
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I feel calm and col­lect­ed but I think that the trade will go against me since we showed exhaus­tion on the LTF going down and we are now pos­si­ble BO from 50/200MA
      • There’s no sign from sell­ers com­ing in
      • I’ll take myself out right above the TTF VWAP around 66.170
        • Stay­ing in because we are still far away from TTF UKC
      • We are below the TTF50MA but have sup­port from HTF VWAP let’s see if we can break this. There could be some absorp­tion of sell­ers com­ing in here to set­up the HTF BO 
      • Cov­ered at 66.038

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:4/25/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute Play­book setups
Com­bined Score81
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
9Ses­sion PECS8Real-time analy­sis
8Trad­ing the process7Trade selec­tion
8Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
43Total38

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Move to 65.90 area and reverse into 65.65
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • BO from 65.90 + PB long into 66.30
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • BD from Prev Low short into 65.30, 64.30
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • My first trade I took too ear­ly and should have held out a bit longer but I’m hap­py with rec­og­niz­ing my set­up and hop­ping on board with the sec­ond trade and rid­ing it until my exit hit
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 2 kin­da played out but it was a short oppor­tu­ni­ty and not a long. I rec­og­nized the loss of momen­tum in the move up to 66.20 area and went short 
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I did very well here because I sticked to my setup
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • Keep it simple
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Tak­ing my setups
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Be too eager to hop in. Be patient and wait for the right tim­ing. I will go over this par­tic­u­lar set­up and ana­lyze best case sce­nario for my play­book tomorrow. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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