27062019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

27062019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low health plan
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)?
  • I feel good. Have slept a lot even though I had some trou­ble falling asleep but feel good. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1 = don’t trade 2/3 =half posi­tion siz­ing 4/5 = full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release    Jun 25, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑7.550M
  • Pre­vi­ous        ‑0.812M
• EIA report
  •  Lat­est Release     Jun 26, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑12.788M
  • Fore­cast        ‑2.540M
  • Pre­vi­ous        ‑3.106M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High    59.883
      • PVAH    59.285
      • PPOC    58.859
      • PVAL    58.683
      • Low    58.636
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev. Low area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break HHTF VWAP and have not made a HHTF PB (yet)
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We are still in an imbal­ance how­ev­er PA can’t sus­tain clean UT on HTF prob­a­bly due to DTF200MA, pos­si­ble cor­rec­tion com­ing on HTF (HHTF Mean rever­sion to VWAP)

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTFLKCCAS
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We had a HTFLKCCAS and might test this lev­el lat­er on again

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTFLKCBD
  • Entry around 58.95
  • Tar­gets 58.70, 58.25
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 58.80
  • Tar­gets 59.50
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.60 — 59.40

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Have patience in only tak­ing A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • After open we had a TTFLKCCAS and then ral­ly to UKC pos­si­ble UKCBO how­ev­er 200MA in the way, we might be up for anoth­er TTF R day
  • 16:35
    • I think that because due to DTF POI PA is some­what irra­tional and I should be extra care­ful today. Only with real clar­i­ty should I take my next trade. 
  • 17:05
    • Messy TTF R in effect, HTF R Squeeze hug­ging the 50MA
  • 17:35
    • Messy TTF R in effect, HTF R Squeeze hug­ging the 50MA, pos­si­ble BD to HTF LKC, I’d expect anoth­er swing to LH before a big drop to HTF LKC though
  • 18:05
    • Drop to HTFLKC
  • 18:35
    • Now the ques­tion is will we find sup­port at HTFLKC or will we make a run for HTF200MA to CAS
  • 19:05
    • Bounce off HTFLKC with pos­si­ble test of TTF VWAP still very bear­ish out­look although the bounce hap­pened at the HHTF VWAP so poten­tial bulls com­ing in. No clar­i­ty so no trades.
  • 19:35

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTFLKCBD
  • Entry around 58.95
  • Tar­gets 58.70, 58.25
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 58.80
  • Tar­gets 59.50
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.60 — 59.40

	Date:	6/27/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	96
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	4/4	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	4/4	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/4	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/4	10	Erro­neous Exits
	46	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have patience in only tak­ing A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-10.6	1	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF R LKCCAS	1	SO	dropped too far below TTFLKC	-	-
-9.7	2	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTFLKCBD	1	SO	re-entered LKC	-	-
-1.3	3	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF R LKCCAS	1	Scratched	Loss of momen­tum at TTF VWAP pos­si­bly sell­ers com­ing in	-	-
5.4	4	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF R LKCCAS	1	Scratched	buy­ers dry­ing up at TTF VWAP no momen­tum to BO	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 3 — 80%
    • Still learn­ing on call­ing these in the hypos. Get­ting slight­ly bet­ter at it. Progress. Not perfection.
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • Did well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Slept enough. Got up ear­ly. Did well here.
  • E: Did well here until the end. I got a phone call that threw me off so did not think about tak­ing any more trades. Did well to decide that. 
  • CS: Did well here. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I should lim­it my exper­i­men­tal trades as well. Was think­ing more on this recent­ly. I will ana­lyze the trades I already took and decide which one(s) to focus on. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Stay focused on build­ing my knowl­edge as well as PB
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Think I have to take trades. I’ve been doing well here but I think I should take less exper­i­men­tal trades as well. Be more selective.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.