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28082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

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28082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

28082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Exit Rules

  • Prof­it >5 ticks
  • Loss <10 ticks

Rea­son 2 Cover

  • Accept­able:
    • Scratch = change in per­spec­tive of nar­ra­tive and closed posi­tion usu­al­ly around entry
    • TP1 = Take Prof­it at 1st Tar­get (usu­al­ly 5–10 ticks)
    • TP2 = Take Prof­it at 2nd Tar­get (10–20 ticks)
    • TP3 — Take Prof­it at 3rd Tar­get (20+ ticks)
    • SO = Stopped out
  • Unac­cept­able
    • Entry Errors
  • FOMO = Fear Of Miss­ing Out = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
  • Chas­ing = Chas­ing the mar­ket = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
  • LOC = Lack of clarity
  • Exit Errors
  • FOLP = Fear Of Los­ing Prof­its = 2 times war­rants stop trading
  • STW = Stop Too Wide = STOP TRADING
  • CS = Changed Stop while trad­ing = STOP TRADING

—————————————————-

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Don’t eat after 5pm
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I had trou­ble falling asleep yes­ter­day but still slept more than 7 hours I think.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • HHTF TL1 BO that burst through 50 and stopped below 200, could still be some momen­tum behind the move and we might just be con­sol­i­dat­ing here
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 55.602
      • PVAH 54.321
      • PPOC 53.816
      • PVAL 53.714
      • Prev. Low 53.604
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • HM move UKC BO 200 BO and then small PA trad­ing side­ways breach­ing 1.0 SD but near­ing VWAP. Either we get anoth­er injec­tion of bulls at this lev­el or we’ll break down
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • Small PA trad­ing in a squeezed range no sense of direc­tion just yet

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF U TC VWAP
    • Entry around 55.40
    • Tar­gets 55.60, 55.85, 56.20, extend­ed tar­get 56.80
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF U TT VWAP
    • Entry around 55.25
    • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.75
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 55.10 — 55.60

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
      • Did I stay open to MGI?
      • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
    • I will use appro­pri­ate siz­ing (10 points)
      • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops
      • Take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Pos­si­ble HTF U TC F VWAP 
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • Cur­rent­ly in process of TTF50MACAS reject­ing 55.40 lev­el although no move has been made yet so smart mon­ey could be using this lev­el to get out of their long posi­tions by sell­ing into dumb mon­ey look­ing for a continuation
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • The AD around 50
      • Bias
        • Short but will need more confirmation
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Not yet
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Pos­si­ble R‑Line CAR for Short, BO+PB for long
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still the same and we might break down here but need more clarity
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • There is no clear R or S line to trade off of at the moment so will have to wait
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • The fact that we haven’t trad­ed above .55 and not under .30 shows that we are still in AD mode here and will need to wait for the mar­ket to make a move
      • Bias
        • Short below 55.30
        • Long above 55.55
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Not atm
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • None
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • We had a U TC at UKC but this might have been a fake. I am wait­ing for signs on a con­tin­u­a­tion to this move or a BD if we can stay above TTF 1.0 SD I believe we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion. How­ev­er HHTF shows we’re near 200 so might have resis­tance com­ing at this level. 
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • VWAP is not close to PA sug­gest­ing a rever­sal to mean at this moment
          • PA went above 2.0 SD and is now strug­gling to stay over 1.5
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • Well MN isn’t that clear atm but I believe we will roll back over and drop down from this lev­el but will wait for more confirmation
      • Bias
        • Short unless VWAP and 50 fol­low suit and we CAS on TTF
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clar­i­ty? Not entire­ly ATM so will need more confirmation
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • No fol­low-through on move yet sug­gest­ing it was a fake and we might be hav­ing that TT after all if we can BD from VWAP
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • If we CAS the VWAP we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • We breached 1.0 SD so that’s a bear­ish sign on the short term how­ev­er we are still above VWAP so will see how it fares after a test­ing of this level
      • Bias
        • Short but need more confirmation
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Not entire­ly. I have seen this pat­tern before but can’t trade off it yet
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still the same
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still the same
    • 19:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still the same
    • 19:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Test­ing HTF UKC pos­si­ble TT or TC slight­ly favor the TT
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • We ducked below 50 how­ev­er have not bro­ken free yet plus there was big push back at this lev­el indi­cat­ing not ready yet
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • 2nd touch at TTF200 in lignh with 2nd touch HTF UKC would make the case for a HTF U TC so nar­ra­tive unclear
      • Bias
        • Long above 55.55
        • Short under 55.45
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?still need con­fir­ma­tion on a poten­tial BD or TC
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM
    • 20:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Unclear. It could be a HTF U TT or U TC still wait­ing for the mar­ket to make a move. My ‘feel­ing’ still thinks U TT is more prob­a­ble though. 
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • We test­ed 200 for the 2nd time and pushed back so unless we break that U TC is still in effect
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • After the push back we stopped and made a LH on TTF with a pos­si­ble 50MABD
      • Bias
        • Short but need more confirmation
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Need more confirmation
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Unclear ATM

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF U TC VWAP
    • Entry around 55.40
    • Tar­gets 55.60, 55.85, 56.20, extend­ed tar­get 56.80
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF U TT VWAP
    • Entry around 55.25
    • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.75
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 55.10 — 55.60





Dai­ly Report Card



Date:8/28/2019



Week­ly GoalAlign with mar­ket narrative



Com­bined Score73



Progress towards week­ly goal (20 points)

10Point 1

5Point 2

15Total



Process Report Card (10 each)

10Ses­sion PECS

8Hypos

10Mar­ket Prep

10Dai­ly review

38Total



Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
1/25Setups Iden­ti­fied
1/25Setups tak­en
1/25Erro­neous Entries
1/25Erro­neous Exits

20total






  • Week­ly Goal
    • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
      • Did I stay open to MGI?
        • I did well here
      • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
        • Not real­ly. I was look­ing for the move to hap­pen at a dif­fer­ent lev­el and there­fore it threw me off a bit so stayed out until I could get some more clarity.
    • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops and take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops(10 points) 
      • No need. I used cor­rect siz­ing. And after I broke 1 of my exit rules I stopped tak­ing trades. 
  • Review
Trade IdeaPos.Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to coverErrorCom­ments
1111HTF U TT25ScratchedToo much push back after drop look­ing exhaustedChas­ing + STWPA was under 1.0 SD and looked like it would continue
1200HTF U TT25TP1Hit 1st target--
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 1 — 80%
      • The move hap­pened lat­er than I hypoth­e­sized and there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move so I believe that Hypo 2 will come into play after US ses­sion open
    • Real-time analy­sis
      • Did well here and stayed out of the mar­ket for the most part since I lacked con­fi­dence in mar­ket nar­ra­tive. Even though Hypo 1 played out there were no setups based on my rules for me to take. Until I thought I saw signs of Hypo 2 com­ing into effect. I trad­ed off that but backed off after it was a fake (for the time being)
        • In hind­sight I think this could be a set­up for a HHTF BO move but as you can tell still lack con­fi­dence in clarity
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • P: Did well here
    • E: Did well here
    • CS: Did well here
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • If I don’t have this voice in my head scream­ing ‘TAKE THE DAMN TRADE’ I should stay out and play being the scientist
  • Positive(s)
    • Stayed out and wait­ed for my con­fi­dence to grow in a narrative
    • Had the patience to let my 2nd trade hit it’s 1st target
  • Negative(s)
    • First trade I took because I was chas­ing the mar­ket. I should have just tak­en my 2nd trade which was at a PB. Also, my rule was to take stops always at 10 ticks. This 1st trade went down 14 ticks and I still let it go and then it turned around and went in the mon­ey. Then when there was a lot of push back I cov­ered it at 3.9 ticks loss. I got lucky here. This could have eas­i­ly been a 16–17 tick loss since that was the lev­el I was look­ing at to ‘real­ly’ get out. I decid­ed on the fly to dis­re­gard my stop and look at what PA was doing around this lev­el thus dis­re­gard­ing my stop rule. What was good is that I stopped trad­ing after this mistake. 
      • I need more prac­tice on tak­ing my stops since I decid­ed to focus on scalp­ing and not go for the big swings. I heard a pod­cast today with FuturesTrader71 say­ing that this is one of the first things he teach­es new traders. Just get in and scratch a trade until they’re com­fort­able tak­ing small loss­es so will have to grow more com­fort­able with it. This will be my week­ly goal. Tak­ing stops. Prof­it or loss. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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