28082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

28 Aug 28082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

28082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Exit Rules

• Prof­it >5 ticks
• Loss <10 ticks

Rea­son 2 Cover

• Accept­able:
  • Scratch = change in per­spec­tive of nar­ra­tive and closed posi­tion usu­al­ly around entry
  • TP1 = Take Prof­it at 1st Tar­get (usu­al­ly 5–10 ticks)
  • TP2 = Take Prof­it at 2nd Tar­get (10–20 ticks)
  • TP3 — Take Prof­it at 3rd Tar­get (20+ ticks)
  • SO = Stopped out
• Unac­cept­able
  • Entry Errors

• FOMO = Fear Of Miss­ing Out = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
• Chas­ing = Chas­ing the mar­ket = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
• LOC = Lack of clarity
• Exit Errors

• FOLP = Fear Of Los­ing Prof­its = 2 times war­rants stop trading
• STW = Stop Too Wide = STOP TRADING
• CS = Changed Stop while trad­ing = STOP TRADING

—————————————————-

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Don’t eat after 5pm
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I had trou­ble falling asleep yes­ter­day but still slept more than 7 hours I think.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • HHTF TL1 BO that burst through 50 and stopped below 200, could still be some momen­tum behind the move and we might just be con­sol­i­dat­ing here
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 55.602
    • PVAH 54.321
    • PPOC 53.816
    • PVAL 53.714
    • Prev. Low 53.604
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • HM move UKC BO 200 BO and then small PA trad­ing side­ways breach­ing 1.0 SD but near­ing VWAP. Either we get anoth­er injec­tion of bulls at this lev­el or we’ll break down
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • Small PA trad­ing in a squeezed range no sense of direc­tion just yet

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF U TC VWAP
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.60, 55.85, 56.20, extend­ed tar­get 56.80
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF U TT VWAP
  • Entry around 55.25
  • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.75
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 55.10 — 55.60

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
    • Did I stay open to MGI?
    • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
  • I will use appro­pri­ate siz­ing (10 points)
    • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops
    • Take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF U TC F VWAP 
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • Cur­rent­ly in process of TTF50MACAS reject­ing 55.40 lev­el although no move has been made yet so smart mon­ey could be using this lev­el to get out of their long posi­tions by sell­ing into dumb mon­ey look­ing for a continuation
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • The AD around 50
    • Bias
      • Short but will need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Not yet
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Pos­si­ble R‑Line CAR for Short, BO+PB for long
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same and we might break down here but need more clarity
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • There is no clear R or S line to trade off of at the moment so will have to wait
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • The fact that we haven’t trad­ed above .55 and not under .30 shows that we are still in AD mode here and will need to wait for the mar­ket to make a move
    • Bias
      • Short below 55.30
      • Long above 55.55
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Not atm
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • None
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • We had a U TC at UKC but this might have been a fake. I am wait­ing for signs on a con­tin­u­a­tion to this move or a BD if we can stay above TTF 1.0 SD I believe we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion. How­ev­er HHTF shows we’re near 200 so might have resis­tance com­ing at this level. 
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • VWAP is not close to PA sug­gest­ing a rever­sal to mean at this moment
        • PA went above 2.0 SD and is now strug­gling to stay over 1.5
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • Well MN isn’t that clear atm but I believe we will roll back over and drop down from this lev­el but will wait for more confirmation
    • Bias
      • Short unless VWAP and 50 fol­low suit and we CAS on TTF
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clar­i­ty? Not entire­ly ATM so will need more confirmation
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • No fol­low-through on move yet sug­gest­ing it was a fake and we might be hav­ing that TT after all if we can BD from VWAP
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • If we CAS the VWAP we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • We breached 1.0 SD so that’s a bear­ish sign on the short term how­ev­er we are still above VWAP so will see how it fares after a test­ing of this level
    • Bias
      • Short but need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Not entire­ly. I have seen this pat­tern before but can’t trade off it yet
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Test­ing HTF UKC pos­si­ble TT or TC slight­ly favor the TT
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • We ducked below 50 how­ev­er have not bro­ken free yet plus there was big push back at this lev­el indi­cat­ing not ready yet
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • 2nd touch at TTF200 in lignh with 2nd touch HTF UKC would make the case for a HTF U TC so nar­ra­tive unclear
    • Bias
      • Long above 55.55
      • Short under 55.45
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?still need con­fir­ma­tion on a poten­tial BD or TC
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 20:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Unclear. It could be a HTF U TT or U TC still wait­ing for the mar­ket to make a move. My ‘feel­ing’ still thinks U TT is more prob­a­ble though. 
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • We test­ed 200 for the 2nd time and pushed back so unless we break that U TC is still in effect
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • After the push back we stopped and made a LH on TTF with a pos­si­ble 50MABD
    • Bias
      • Short but need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Need more confirmation
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF U TC VWAP
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.60, 55.85, 56.20, extend­ed tar­get 56.80
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF U TT VWAP
  • Entry around 55.25
  • Tar­gets 55.05, 54.75
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 55.10 — 55.60

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/28/2019
Week­ly Goal	Align with mar­ket narrative
Com­bined Score	73
Progress towards week­ly goal (20 points)
	10	Point 1
	5	Point 2
	15	Total
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	8	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	38	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
1/2	5	Setups Iden­ti­fied
1/2	5	Setups tak­en
1/2	5	Erro­neous Entries
1/2	5	Erro­neous Exits
	20	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
    • Did I stay open to MGI?
      • I did well here
    • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
      • Not real­ly. I was look­ing for the move to hap­pen at a dif­fer­ent lev­el and there­fore it threw me off a bit so stayed out until I could get some more clarity.
  • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops and take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops(10 points) 
    • No need. I used cor­rect siz­ing. And after I broke 1 of my exit rules I stopped tak­ing trades. 
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover	Error	Com­ments
1	1	1	1	HTF U TT	25	Scratched	Too much push back after drop look­ing exhausted	Chas­ing + STW	PA was under 1.0 SD and looked like it would continue
1	2	0	0	HTF U TT	25	TP1	Hit 1st target	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 80%
    • The move hap­pened lat­er than I hypoth­e­sized and there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move so I believe that Hypo 2 will come into play after US ses­sion open
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • Did well here and stayed out of the mar­ket for the most part since I lacked con­fi­dence in mar­ket nar­ra­tive. Even though Hypo 1 played out there were no setups based on my rules for me to take. Until I thought I saw signs of Hypo 2 com­ing into effect. I trad­ed off that but backed off after it was a fake (for the time being)
      • In hind­sight I think this could be a set­up for a HHTF BO move but as you can tell still lack con­fi­dence in clarity
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • If I don’t have this voice in my head scream­ing ‘TAKE THE DAMN TRADE’ I should stay out and play being the scientist
• Positive(s)
  • Stayed out and wait­ed for my con­fi­dence to grow in a narrative
  • Had the patience to let my 2nd trade hit it’s 1st target
• Negative(s)
  • First trade I took because I was chas­ing the mar­ket. I should have just tak­en my 2nd trade which was at a PB. Also, my rule was to take stops always at 10 ticks. This 1st trade went down 14 ticks and I still let it go and then it turned around and went in the mon­ey. Then when there was a lot of push back I cov­ered it at 3.9 ticks loss. I got lucky here. This could have eas­i­ly been a 16–17 tick loss since that was the lev­el I was look­ing at to ‘real­ly’ get out. I decid­ed on the fly to dis­re­gard my stop and look at what PA was doing around this lev­el thus dis­re­gard­ing my stop rule. What was good is that I stopped trad­ing after this mistake. 
    • I need more prac­tice on tak­ing my stops since I decid­ed to focus on scalp­ing and not go for the big swings. I heard a pod­cast today with FuturesTrader71 say­ing that this is one of the first things he teach­es new traders. Just get in and scratch a trade until they’re com­fort­able tak­ing small loss­es so will have to grow more com­fort­able with it. This will be my week­ly goal. Tak­ing stops. Prof­it or loss. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.