29052019 Wednesday — HTF D TC — TTF50MACAR LKCBD

29052019 Wednes­day — HTF D TC — TTF50MACAR LKCBD

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs by eat­ing less noo­dles, rice, etc.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good although I had a hard time con­cen­trat­ing ear­li­er so think­ing that 7.5 hours is not enough for me at this point. Need to get back up to 8 hours. Also need to start exer­cis­ing. Will go to the gym this sat­ur­day to sign up.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release today, Wednes­day, May 29th, 2019
• EIA report
  • Next release tomor­row, Thurs­day, May 30th, 2019
  • Fore­cast ‑0.800M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 59.581
      • PVAH 59.255
      • PPOC 59.125
      • PVAL 58.924
      • Low 58.671
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAL area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break HTF200MA but might be load­ing up to do so this week
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • TTF is show­ing a DT and we moved down to HTF LKC if there is a load up this would be the spot

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF D TC 50MACAR
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Moved to HTF LKC in a TTF DT pos­si­ble rever­sal here

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF50MABO
  • Entry around 58.65
  • Tar­gets 58.90, 59.10
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 58.90
  • Tar­gets 58.70, 58.45, extend­ed tar­get 57.60
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 58.55
  • Tar­gets 58.40, 58,20, extend­ed 57.60

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Not much going on yet. HTF show­ing a pos­si­ble down­wards imbalance. 
  • 16:35
    • Small swings between TTF50MA and LKC has not made a move yet. HTF still looks very bearish.
  • 17:05
    • Pos­si­ble TTFLKCBD and HTFLKCBD
  • 17:35
    • PB after big drop from 58.20 area to 57.75 area, a 45+ move
  • 18:05
    • LTF is show­ing a lot of dojis mak­ing me believe some­thing is going on against the sus­pect­ed direc­tion of the mar­ket ie. sell­ers pos­si­ble being absorbed. 
    • Break of TTF 1.0 SD also con­firms this feel­ing that there is a shift in momen­tum as well as direction
  • 18:35
    • LTF still show­ing lots of wicks and what ‘sup­posed’ to be a PB is still a LTF UT now cross­ing TTF VWAP LKC with no signs of slow­ing down yet. 
  • 19:05
    • After the drop we have a PB that goes all the way back up over TTF LKC and to 50MA which could be a TTF D TC oppor­tu­ni­ty but I think that will stop at LKC and reverse again. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1 (2nd account, experimental)
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Yes­ter­day had a dou­ble top HTF200MACAR and today we’ve been trad­ing from 50MA to LKC
      • HTF D TC
    • TTF
      • TTF R 50MACAR LKCBD
      • Short Entry 10 @ 58.19
    • LTF
      • LTF D TC @ LKC
  • SL
    • 58.31
  • TP
    • 57.67
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 58.06 because I want­ed to pock­et the prof­its. I could not cov­er half of the posi­tion since I had tak­en the small­est con­tract size possible.
    • Although I made the mis­take of cov­er­ing too soon I do like to point out that I did actu­al­ly get in in the first place, fur­ther­more I did not hop back in out of FOMO because I am lis­ten­ing to the voice that there is no set­up present and it would just be a gam­ble at this point. I give myself props for that part. The cov­er­ing too soon I will work on by replay­ing and writ­ing in my PB.

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF50MABO
  • Entry around 58.65
  • Tar­gets 58.90, 59.10
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 58.90
  • Tar­gets 58.70, 58.45, extend­ed tar­get 57.60
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 58.55
  • Tar­gets 58.40, 58,20, extend­ed 57.60

	Date:	5/29/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	90
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	10	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	1	0	Erro­neous Exits
	50	Total		40

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • I did well here. Did not take any PB setups because there weren’t any. How­ev­er, I did take a TTF R set­up which I am very hap­py with.
• Review
  • Only took one exper­i­men­tal trade and am hap­py with tak­ing the trade. How­ev­er, I cov­ered out of fear of los­ing prof­its. I should have applied my nor­mal exit rules but I was hap­py that it dropped in my favor and when momen­tum seemed to die off I cov­ered. Now, I can sit here and pre­tend that it was because it was an exper­i­men­tal trade and I lack the con­fi­dence in this par­tic­u­lar set­up. Which to an extend is true. But… When there is a high momen­tum move with­out much push back (on high momen­tum) we can be more con­vinced (just like my oth­er setups) that we will con­tin­ue in the same direc­tion. Thus, my exit rules for a sim­i­lar set­up apply here. 
    • Not going to take it as a huge mis­take because obvi­ous­ly there are a few pos­i­tive con­sid­er­a­tions here: 
      1. I took the setup 
      2. I am re-con­firm­ing to myself that my exit rules are valid
      3. I didn’t hop back on out of FOMO because I rec­og­nized the emo­tion and new it would be a gam­ble and not a plan to re-enter the trade idea (even though it would have gone my way still). Told myself to wait for the next oppor­tu­ni­ty to arise before stalk­ing anoth­er entry. How­ev­er, my LTF showed PA con­trary to what would hap­pen in case of a con­tin­u­a­tion so I let it go and didn’t re-enter. Very hap­py with that. 

Psy­chol­o­gy Journal
Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution	Action
test	1	HTF D TC / TTF R 50MACAR LKCBD	Cov­ered too fast	10	NO	fear of los­ing profits	Exper­i­men­tal trade cov­ered on what seemed like dying off of momen­tum only to see it drop more. Trad­ed small­est con­tract so could­n’t cov­er half first and let the rest run.	1) replay + write in PB 2) Should have stuck with my nor­mal exit rules — replay trades + back­test the set­up to grow con­fi­dent in your exits	Replay + PB + backtest

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 3 — 100%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Did very well here. Even though I was feel­ing a bit sleepy in the after­noon. I got over that, per­haps because I skipped a meal. I should take a clos­er look to what meals I am hav­ing before I start trading. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Re-con­firmed that “my” pat­terns hap­pen over all time frames.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Stick to, not just my plan, but this vibe I got going on. Try­ing to stay hum­ble, when exe­cut­ing my plan. If that makes sense….
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t think you got it. You got noth­ing. Let the num­bers do the talk­ing. You still need a big­ger data set to show pos­i­tive sta­tis­tics (besides P/L) that the way I am trad­ing is work­ing for me. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.