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29082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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29082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

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29082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

29082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Exit Rules

  • Prof­it >5 ticks
  • Loss <10 ticks

Rea­son 2 Cover

  • Accept­able:
    • Scratch = change in per­spec­tive of nar­ra­tive and closed posi­tion usu­al­ly around entry
    • TP = Take Profit
    • SO = Stopped out
  • Unac­cept­able
    • Entry Errors
  • FOMO = Fear Of Miss­ing Out = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
  • Chas­ing = Chas­ing the mar­ket = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
  • LOC = Lack of clarity
  • Exit Errors
  • FOLP = Fear Of Los­ing Prof­its = 2 times war­rants stop trading
  • STW = Stop Too Wide = STOP TRADING
  • CS = Changed Stop while trad­ing = STOP TRADING

—————————————————-

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Don’t eat after 6pm
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel good even though I didn’t sleep too well. I kept wak­ing up. Don’t feel too tired though so let’s see how it goes lat­er on. To be on the safer side I’ll go wijth lev­el 4. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • HHTF shows a 200MABO F and on the longer term bear­ish sen­ti­ment would be warranted
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 56.569
      • PVAH 55.822
      • PPOC 55.634
      • PVAL 55.338
      • Prev. Low 55.230
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • After yesterday’s U TC F we trad­ed back into KC and crossed down 50, how­ev­er again there is small PA going on so there might be a shift in sen­ti­ment although I think a con­tin­u­a­tion down would be more probable
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • AS con­tin­ued a DT that found sup­port at 55.40 and has been bounc­ing off this lev­el pos­si­bly to lat­er on break down this same lev­el. Also when encoun­ter­ing 50 we seem to have a rejec­tion going on there. That said 55.40 is still giv­ing sup­port and we might have a move up before gain­ing momen­tum to BD from this level

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF 50MABO F / CAR
    • Entry around 55.50
    • Tar­gets 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 55.85
    • Tar­gets 55.55, 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • HTF LKCCAS
    • Entry around 55.30
    • Tar­gets 55.50, 55.70, 55.90
  • Hypo 4 Rotational
    • 55.35 — 55.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
      • Did I stay open to MGI?
      • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
    • I will use appro­pri­ate siz­ing (10 points)
      • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops
      • Take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 15:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • It looks like LKC 2.0 SD is pro­vid­ing sup­port and we might see a run to Hypo 1 play­ing out
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • For now things are going as expect­ed. There’s a pos­si­ble S‑Line form­ing so will trade off that lev­el if there is con­fir­ma­tion oth­er­wise wait for the BD
      • Bias
        • Long short term, short medium/long term
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Pos­si­ble TTF R S‑line form­ing that could set­up for a BD in line with Hypo 1 
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Long if S‑Line CAS 
          • Short with S‑Line BD
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Looks like a 50MABO
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • There seems to be no F and we are con­tin­u­ing higher
      • Bias
        • If PA stays above TTF TL2 than I remain long, if under switch to short
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • 50MABO pos­si­ble move to UKC 
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • S‑Line 2 CAS for long, BD+PB for short
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • 50MABO to pos­si­bly UKC
      • TTF
        • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
          • PA stayed above VWAP so long-biased
      • Bias
        • Long until we break down from TTF VWAP
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Go long near TTF VWAP if LTF confirms
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Long: TTF U TC VWAP
          • Short: TTF VWAP BD
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Some loss in momen­tum above 1.0 SD pos­si­ble reversal
      • TTF
        • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
          • PA still above VWAP but  LTF showed signs of weak­ness. Will need to wait for a BD from VWAP to con­sid­er going short in this market
      • Bias
        • Short below VWAP
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Do you have clarity?
          • Depends if we can break VWAP
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • VWAP BD+PB

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF 50MABO F / CAR
    • Entry around 55.50
    • Tar­gets 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF UKCCAR
    • Entry around 55.85
    • Tar­gets 55.55, 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • HTF LKCCAS
    • Entry around 55.30
    • Tar­gets 55.50, 55.70, 55.90
  • Hypo 4 Rotational
    • 55.35 — 55.90




Dai­ly Report Card



Date:8/29/2019



Week­ly GoalAlign with mar­ket narrative



Com­bined Score80



Progress towards week­ly goal (20 points)

5Point 1

10Point 2

15Total



Process Report Card (10 each)

7Ses­sion PECS

8Hypos

10Mar­ket Prep

10Dai­ly review

35Total



Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
2/25Setups Iden­ti­fied
2/25Setups tak­en
0/210Erro­neous Entries
0/210Erro­neous Exits

30total






  • Week­ly Goal
    • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
      • Did I stay open to MGI?
        • I thought I did but still got stopped out 4 times
      • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
        • I real­ize that when there is a point of inter­est on the HHTF PA does not trade accord­ing to the ‘same rules’ as oth­er­wise. Next time I will take this into con­sid­er­a­tion and size down.
    • I will use appro­pri­ate siz­ing (10 points)
      • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops
        • I had a win in between. After 4 stops I was just not feel­ing in line with the mar­ket and hav­ing almost hit my DLL I quit for the day. Nor­mal­ly, I’d stay in front of the screens but need some time away from the screens. Per­haps take tomor­row off as well to regroup over the week­end and come back next week. The whole week I was kin­da off and although I did fac­tor that into my trad­ing I might have under­es­ti­mat­ed my men­tal well-being 
      • Take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops
  • Review
P/L ticksTrade IdeaPos.Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to cover
-11.41100HTF 50MABO F25SOStopped Out
-9.62200Exper­i­men­tal5SOLearn­ing how to take my stops
3.33300TTF U TC25TP1Hit 1st Target
-14.24400HTF UKC CAR25SOStopped Out
-15.85500HTF25SOStopped Out
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 2 — 80%
      • Did OK
    • Real-time analy­sis
      • 50%
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • P: Did well here although this week I did not quite sleep as well
    • E: Did well here
    • CS: Thought I did well here but I caught myself ‘want­i­ng’ to make mis­takes and decid­ed to call it a day.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • That PA is very dif­fer­ent when near a HHTF POI and this is some­thing I have to either get bet­ter or stay away from. Will record this into my play­book and decide later.
  • Positive(s)
    • Quit after I felt off and not real­ly ‘into’ it know­ing that if I con­tin­ue I might just force myself into mak­ing more mistakes
    • Not feel­ing sor­ry for myself. I know I shine in cer­tain sit­u­a­tions, today was just not one of them. All good. 
  • Negative(s)
    • Not haven tak­en into account the HHTF POI as much
    • Should have decreased my siz­ing to allow for more mis­takes on a small­er scale. Lis­tened to FuturesTrader71 talk­ing about how when you’re not per­form­ing well to trade small­er so that you can trade as much as you can before hit­ting DLL. adding this to my trad­ing rules. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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