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30052019 Thursday — Smart Money up to something - Bear Market Trader
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30052019 Thursday — Smart Money up to something

30052019 Thursday — Smart Money up to something

30052019 Thurs­day — Smart Mon­ey up to something

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less carbs
  • How do you feel?
    • Good. Slept enough.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • May 29th, 2019
    • -5.3M
  • EIA report
    • Com­ing out today
    • Fore­cast ‑0.857M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 59.143
        • PVAH 59.115
        • PPOC 58.559
        • PVAL 57.740
        • Low 56.939
      • Where is the LIS?
        • PPOC Area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t break the HTF R to the down­side but broke 200MA instead
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • Haven’t bro­ken this week’s range yet but the market’s load­ing up to make some move so let’s see what she decides on.
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF200MAPB
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • TTF TT into TTF R bounc­ing off 58.85 area for short/medium term support

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • TTF50MABD
    • Entry 59.10
    • Tar­gets 58.70
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • TTFLKCCAS
    • Entry 59.15
    • Tar­gets 59.45, 59.80
  • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.85 — 59.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:35
      • After AS moved up to 59.70 and we had an exhaust­ed move we see a drop to TTF50MA with pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to LKC which is also HTF VWAP area. I will look to see if there is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move ie. Prev High BD / HTF VWAP BD
      • Drop still look­ing strong.
    • 17:05
      • Drop to TTF LKC and it was look­ing to con­tin­ue and break it but glad I stuck to my rules and didn’t hop on as some buy­ing came in here. 
    • 17:35
      • A/D going on at TTF LKC pos­si­ble rever­sal. Not sure if it’s buy­ers or sell­ers being absorbed. It looks like buy­ers being absorbed and more sell­ing pres­sure could come in on the HTF how­ev­er HHTF is show­ing buy­ing pressure.
    • 18:05
      • TTF and HTF still look­ing bear­ish on the short-term
    • 18:35
      • We dropped below TTF200MA but only slight­ly and no big drop yet. A lot going on here.
      • Mar­ket con­text is smart mon­ey buy­ing in their posi­tions for a long run
    • 19:05
      • Smart mon­ey bring­ing price below TTF200MA to load up on longs
      • Price still slow, spread a lit­tle wider than nor­mal (42/43), stil long on over­all mar­ket, not gonna take a trade until more clar­i­ty + set­up show up
    • 19:35
      • Still no big drop yet

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF VWAP BD
      • TTF
        • TTFLKCBD
        • Entry 10 @ 59.08
      • LTF
        • LTF D TC
    • SL
      • TP
        • 58.88
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Scratched at 59.14

    Dai­ly Report Card

    • Hypo 1 Short
      • TTF50MABD
      • Entry 59.10
      • Tar­gets 58.70
    • Hypo 2 Long
      • TTFLKCCAS
      • Entry 59.15
      • Tar­gets 59.45, 59.80
    • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.85 — 59.30









    Date:5/30/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)















    Com­bined Score96











    Process Report Card (10 each)
    Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)

    10Ses­sion PECS80%8Real-time analy­sis

    8Hypos1/110Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)

    10Trad­ing the process1/110Setups tak­en

    10Dai­ly review010Erro­neous Entries

    10Progress tow. week­ly goal010Erro­neous Exits

    48Total
    48








    • Week­ly Goal
      • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
        • I did well here. Took 1 exper­i­men­tal trade.
    • Review
      • I noticed that even though my set­up could be com­ing up, I was stalk­ing it, the con­text of the mar­ket was dif­fer­ent. ‘Nor­mal­ly’, we would see a faster drop but that didn’t come. Whole ses­sion has been slow mak­ing me come up with a new trade idea. Today was a good day to learn more about mar­ket structure. 

    Psy­chol­o­gy Journal
    P/L ticksEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeMis­takes (if any)Siz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solutionAction
    -6--(Experimental)TTFLKCBD-10NOcov­ered at small loss because it looked to reverse — note to self: when price cross­es 1.0 SD there is a pos­si­bil­i­ty of a shift in sentimentSlow PA + cross­ing of 1.0 SD = high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty of shift­ing sentimentreplay event + write in PBReplay + PB
    23--(Exper­i­men­tal) HTF200MACAS / TTF200MACAR into exhaust­ed move-10YESTTF200MA cov­ered---
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Hypo 1 80% — even though we did have a TTF50MABD I visu­al­ized dif­fer­ent­ly + we didn’t exact­ly hit my target
      • Give myself 80% here because even though I caught what was going on I didn’t put enough weight on the cross­ing of the 1.0 SD.
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • I did well here. Not tired. Doing well. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • That I like find­ing out the intri­ca­cies of mar­ket structure. 
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Remain the sci­en­tist. The more you know, the more you know you don’t know sh*t 🙂 there is no room for pre­dic­tions. Just go with what the mar­ket is show­ing you. 
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Wor­ry about the out­come. Take high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty trades and work on build­ing your stats. 

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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