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31072019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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31072019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

31072019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

31072019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat only 2 meals a day, alter­nate time of day
  • Month­ly goal
    • Start today: no more alco­hol until Sep­tem­ber 1st.
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel OK but a bit tired. Prob­a­bly because I drink a lit­tle too much and the sec­ond day of 7.5 hours of sleep instead of 8 hours.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • HHTF D TT to R to Overbought
      • Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion of UT
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 58.471
      • PVAH 57.498
      • PPOC 57.202
      • PVAL 57.033
      • Prev. Low 56.973
    • Yes­ter­day had a U TC @ 50MA into over­bought but still above 1.0 SD. Small PA indi­cates pos­si­ble PB or rever­sal at this lev­el of 58.35
  • TTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • TTF shows a less than clear rejec­tion of the 50MA while still in UT, pos­si­ble loss in momen­tum and sen­ti­ment and we might be due for a mean rever­sion on HTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF U TC @ VWAP

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Rota­tion­al 58.20 — 58.60
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF U TC @ VWAP
    • Entry around 58.30
    • Tar­gets 58.80, 59.25, extend­ed 59.90
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • HTF U TT
    • Entry around 58.30
    • Tar­gets 57.95

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • HHTF
        • HHTF PA above 1.5 SD pos­si­ble influx of bulls
      • HTF
        • HTF U TC @ UKC, we breached VWAP so more bear­ish than bull­ish here but still need to watch out for the bulls com­ing around this level
      • TTF
        • After Lon­don open big push down to TTF R AD Over­sold position
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • HTF U TC 
        • HTF U TT
    • 16:35
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • HTF U TT
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD Over­sold posi­tion pos­si­ble BD
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Short­er term narrative 
          • HTF U TT
            • High­er prob­a­ble play is at VWAP BD + PB
            • Unclear what play to catch on TTF at this point, a moment to study and learn
        • Longer term narrative
          • HTF U TC @ 50MA
    • 17:05
      • HHTF
        • Breached 1.5 SD a little
      • HTF
        • HTF U TC was in play move up to 2.0 SD
          • Missed the trade being focused on U TT instead. WIll log and learn more about this.
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­sold into 50MA
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Wait for more con­fir­ma­tion first
    • 17:35
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • Push back on the HTF U TC touch to 2.0 SD pos­si­ble HTF U TT in play from now on, look for con­fir­ma­tion on TTF
      • TTF
        • TTF R UKCCAR but have not BD from 50MA (yet?)
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • HTF U TT if there is more confirmation
    • 18:05
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • Pos­si­ble 2nd touch HTF U TC @ UKC?
      • TTF
        • Breached 50MA a lit­tle bit but could still go any­way since PA seems dead and mar­ket is not mak­ing a move. Calm before the storm.
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • If we stay below TTF R UKC I think HTF U TT is still in play beyond that HTF U TC is back in play how­ev­er I would have missed the best entry and would have to look for a TTF U TC before entering
    • 19:05
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • HTF U TC still above UKC small PA lack clar­i­ty on mar­ket direction
      • TTF
        • TTF R AD 50MA CAS in line with HTF U TC how­ev­er no fol­low-through on move yet, lack clar­i­ty, per­haps because of the EIA report com­ing out later
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • HTF U TC still look­ing like it’s in effect more con­firmed if we make a swing high on TTF
        • HTF U TT more con­firmed if we fail to make that swing high
    • 19:35
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • Lack of clar­i­ty on HTF U TC / U TT
      • TTF
        • TTF UKC has proven to be CAS 3 times now but still poten­tial BO from this lev­el pos­si­ble which could con­firm HTF U TC, the oppo­site make the case for HTF U TT
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Pos­si­ble BO from TTF UKC
    • 20:05
      • HHTF
      • HTF
      • TTF
        • Small PA around UKC pos­si­ble BO
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)

    Dai­ly Report Card

    Trade Idea

    • Hypo 1 Rota­tion­al 58.20 — 58.60
    • Hypo 2 Long
      • HTF U TC @ VWAP
      • Entry around 58.30
      • Tar­gets 58.80, 59.25, extend­ed 59.90
    • Hypo 3 Short
      • HTF U TT
      • Entry around 58.30
      • Tar­gets 57.95





    Dai­ly Report Card



    Date:7/31/2019



    Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



    Com­bined Score90



    Process Report Card (10 each)

    10Ses­sion PECS

    10Hypos

    10Mar­ket Prep

    10Dai­ly review

    10Progress tow. week­ly goal

    50Total






    Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
    100%5Real-time analy­sis
    2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
    1/25Setups tak­en
    0/210Erro­neous Entries
    0/210Erro­neous Exits

    40total



    • Week­ly Goal
      • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
      • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
    • Review
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Hypo 2 — 100%
        • Did well here
      • Real-time analy­sis — 50%
        • I am still learn­ing on 2 trade ideas that I have and again, like yes­ter­day, both were in play dur­ing today’s ses­sion. Because both trade ideas go against each oth­er and my per­son­al incli­na­tion is to pre­fer the short over the long side I got stuck to my bias of hypo 2 even though my 1 was pre­vail­ing through­out the ses­sion. Today has been very insight­ful to both these trade ideas and as always I will go back and review today’s session. 
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • P: Did well here.
      • E: Did well here even when trades were going against me at wider stops than I usu­al­ly have. I feel that I am more and more get­ting bet­ter at los­ing mon­ey 🙂 or bet­ter get­ting com­fort­able being down mon­ey in order to let my exper­i­men­tal trad­ing idea devel­op or prove invalidated. 
      • CS: Did well here because of inter­mit­tent fast­ing today. I love my ener­gy lev­el when fasting. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • I learned that I am fail­ing faster to get bet­ter and I am not scared to fail. 
    • Positive(s)
      • Get­ting one step clos­er to under­stand­ing mar­ket narratives
    • Negative(s)
      • Again favored the short side more than the long side. I will work in my play­book on this and set mar­ket direc­tion­al rules that have to be bro­ken before I can take trades in the oth­er direction.

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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