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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- MN Bear Engulf giving MN-C-S 1905.787 rejecting MN QHi
- Price continued to close down but reacted off MN demand leaving a longer buying wick closing above MN demand
- Conjecture: Even though MN closed down rejecting MN QHi, the longer buying wick not closing within demand (and above VWAP) indicates buyers could still be around and some retracement higher is possible. The MN demand is a Base level and could see continuation lower. Price is trading below body.
Weekly – Bearish
- W1 Bear Engulf but with longer buying wick reacting off W1 QLo
- Slight continuation with last week closing lower and within W1 demand and W1 QLo
- Conjecture: Even though price closed lower it is still trading within Demand and W1 QLo and could see a reaction.
Daily – Neutral
- D1 Phase 1 / 3
- D1 DBD giving D1-C-S 1831.278 BASE followed by an Inside bar above D1 demand and D1 QLo.
- Conjecture: Price failed to close within demand and D1 QLo. Price needs to take out demand for a further bearish sentiment. Since price tested a Base supply level above it could see a close higher. More information is needed.
Sentiment summary – Bearish
Additional notes
- Blackswan event
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- No early exits, either hit SL or target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
