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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- MN Bear Engulf giving MN-C-S 1905.787 rejecting MN QHi
- Price continued closing lower
- Last month closed closer within MN demand but did not make a LL
- Conjecture: Even though price closed within MN demand there is more demand right beneath it (as well as price nearing MN UKC in UT) and could see some reaction.
Weekly – Bearish
- W1 Bear Engulf giving W1-C-S 1852.151 leaving a longer buying wick
- Even so, price closed lower within wide W1 QLo
- Last week closed above W1-C-D 1807.673 leaving a longer buying wick
- Conjecture: Price did close lower but saw some reaction off demand and closed above it. With longer buying wicks around there could be a reversal although none has formed yet. The wide QLO indicates a potential for more downside.
Daily – Neutral
- D1 QLo shares the level with Wide W1 QLo
- D1 closed below previous low, made a LL after closing as an Inside Bar with long buying wick (D1 Hammer) reacting off D1-C-D 1797.238 (near round number)
- Conjecture: A Hammer is more likely to see a continuation down but trading at these levels price could form a D1 Three Outside Up. Although it was possibly a Friday profit-taking move.
Sentiment summary – Bearish
Additional notes
- Blackswan event
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
