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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- Price made a LL almost taking out MN-C-D 1738.757 but price started reacting and closed above as a Hammer leaving a long buying wick.
- Price failed to close below the previous range
- Conjecture: Price leaving a long buying wick indicates buyers are around. Although price having closed as a Hammer indicates a potential continuation lower as there is no reversal pattern completed (yet).
Weekly – Bullish
- Price reacted off W1/MN demand and completed a W1 Three Outside Up but failed to close above Wide W1 QLo
- Conjecture: Due to the formation of a W1 Three Outside Up momentum is implied. Momentum can be deceiving so If price fails to pull through it could instead see a re-test of demand.
Daily – Bullish
- After D1 Bull Engulf was formed price saw a test of D1-C-D 1712.136 (in 2nd Chance Entry fashion) before creating new demand on top.
- Price returned to D1 Supply Base level and consequently took it out closing higher above D1 VWAP in DT.
- D1 QLo shares same levels as W1 QLo and thus price has failed to close above D1 QLo
- Conjecture: Price is still trading within Wide D1 QLo and could see a retracement if momentum starts waning. Taking out a Base Supply level price could push price higher to originating level of D1-C-S 1809.323 which is near the round number of 1800 (coinciding with D1 50MA in DT at which point price could see a reaction).
Sentiment summary – Bullish
Additional notes
- Aug 05, USD, Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Jul)
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Use SL scaling
