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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- Price closed lower following a MN hammer closing deeper within MN-C-D 1738.801 (which was tested multiple times and almost got taken out in July / MN Hammer)
- MN QHi rejected, price trading mid swing
- MN VWAP BD to CAR leaving a selling wick and price closed near its low
- Conjecture: Price closed within demand indicates price possibly taking out said demand. Although price failed to close below previous range and the month just started and could see some retracement.
Weekly – Bearish
- Price had initially closed above W1 QLo, but failed to push higher an is trading within W1 QLo
- Instead formed a W1 Bear Engulf giving W1-C-S 1773.738
- Price closed lower within W1-C-D 1730.051 leaving a bit of a buying wick and price failed close below previous range low as well as W1 200MA in UT not far below
- Conjecture: Even though price closed within demand it failed to close below previous range low. With W1 200MA in UT just below and trading within demand price could see a reaction.
Daily – Bullish
- Even though Friday closed as a D1 Bull Engulf it failed to close above D1 QLo
- Price reacted off D1-C-D 1691.865 and is trading at round number of 1700
- Conjecture: Price formed a Bull Engulf on Friday possibly in a profit-taking move as it also failed to close above D1 QLo. However, price is extended below D1 VWAP and could see some reaction. With D1-C-S 1735.993 BASE above a retracement to this level wouldn’t be the strongest sign for a Bearish thesis although D1 supply at 1750 still above it.
Sentiment summary – Bearish
Additional notes
- N.A.
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Use SL scaling
