09052019 Thursday – HTF R – TTF UT TTF50MA200MABO

09052019 Thursday – HTF R – TTF UT TTF50MA200MABO

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Confirm As Resistance
• CAS = Confirm As Support
• UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
• LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
• DPP = Daily Pivot Point
• DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
• DS = Daily Support (pivot)
• WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
• WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
• HL = Higher Low
• HH = Higher High
• LH = Lower High
• LL = Lower Low
• SD = Standard Deviation
• VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = London Session (EU)
• NY = New York Session (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Lower Time Frame
• TTF = Trading Time Frame
• HTF = Higher Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Weekly goal
  • No rice, noodles, etc.
    • Ate chicken from McDonalds yesterday which is obviously also not good. However for the rest I have been skipping rice and noodles.
• How do you feel?
  • Although not having slept enough and my eyes are puffy I feel OK.
• How would you rate it (1-5)?
  • 3

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

• API report
  • Latest Release May 07, 2019
  • Actual 2.806M
  • Previous 6.810M
• EIA report
  • Latest Release May 08, 2019
  • Actual -3.963M
  • Forecast 1.215M
  • Previous 9.900M

Intraday Technical Analysis

• HTF
  • Define context
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 62.407
      • PVAH 62.201
      • PPOC 61.890
      • PVAL 61.563
      • Low 61.123
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAL area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break away from HTF200MA and are still around its area. HTF R is still in effect.
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R is still in effect but seems to be nearing a potential pressure point since swings are getting smaller (apex) so a BO/BD might follow on the short/medium term

• TTF
  • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • LISBD or BO
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Session printed?
    • AS dropped to below the HTFTTF200MA and has been in a R since

Trade Idea (not too clear today)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • LIS BD to Prev Low before potentially reversing
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Targets 61.30, 61.10
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Hold LIS into PVAH
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Target 62.20, extended target Prev High 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Hypo 1 with BD from Prev Low
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Targets 61.20, 60.80

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

• Define winning
  • Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market

Reading the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:35
    • Looks like absorption around 61.40 area
  • 17:05
    • Looks like we might be breaking out from HTF50MA TTF200MA. Sellers not convincingly coming in. LTF above VWAP and KC. Looks like a high momentum move.
  • 17:35
    • We broke over the TTF200MA and then now just dropped back to what looks like a possible PB but the angle of the PB is not to my liking and combined with my earlier assessment of the widening KC I am not confident in taking a trade going long here so I won’t.
    • Buyers are looking to dry up just above the TTF200MA
  • 18:05
    • The PB to TTF200MA was a LTF TT and we now made a swing high to LTF UKC and that would signal in the LTF R. Will be looking for a BD or BO from the LTF R.
  • 18:35
    • Moved to new high. We did not BD from TTF200MA or TTFUKC TTFVWAP. Possible run to HTF UKC before reversing.
  • 19:05
    • We just had a sudden big drop from 62.15 to 61.95 and are potentially looking to continue down. I’ll be looking for a direct BD from TTFUKC TTFVWAP to a PB before considering going short here. This could just be a HTF PB.
  • 19:35
    • We dropped to below TTFUKC but still haven’t broken TTFVWAP yet. We are about to test LTF200MA so let’s see if we can break it. Not m,uch sign of buyers coming in but we just had some swings so definitely noit convinced yet that we are reversing. Could be possible PB to TTF50MA (which is about to cross TTF200MA now)

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R price move up to HTF50MA
    • TTF
      • Doji under TTF200MA and KC widening so took a position in the other direction according to range bound trading. Entry 61.844
    • LTF
      • Reversal candles outside 2.0 SD
  • SL
    • 61.956
  • TP
    • 61.699
  • Trade Management
    • Covered when it didn’t drop fast enough at 61.816

Daily Report Card

Trade Idea (not too clear today)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • LIS BD to Prev Low before potentially reversing
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Targets 61.30, 61.10
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Hold LIS into PVAH
  • Entry around 61.65
  • Target 62.20, extended target Prev High 62.40
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Hypo 1 with BD from Prev Low
  • Entry around 61.50
  • Targets 61.20, 60.80

Date:	5/9/2019	Weekly Goal	Execute Playbook setups
Combined Score	93
Process Report Card (10 each)	Performance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-market routines	9	Hypos
9	Session PECS	9	Real-time analysis
10	Trading the process	10	Trade selection
9	Daily review	10	Trade Execution & Mgmt.
9	Progress toward Weekly goal	9	Risk Adjusted Returns
46	Total	47

• Weekly Goal
  • Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
    • Did well here
• Review
  • I did well to wait for my setup to arise and when it did I took it. However I saw that the market context was not supporting my setup and decided to cover it. Luckily.
  • In hindsight, I was thinking that price had moved up to TTFUKC on high momentum so it was more likely to BO.Regardless, I took the setup and quickly covered when I was proven wrong.
• How accurate was my assessment of market context?
  • Hypo 2 played out and am very happy with that even though I didn’t have much clarity on direction of the market but I guess that is clarity in and of itself.
• How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
  • I did well here not looking to overtrade. Just looking for possible entries and waiting for price to hit that (or not)
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Patience is the key. I will go over this review tomorrow to see if I can spot more factors that went into having a good trading session although I scratched on 1 position I took.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Let market context lead (this will need more experience)
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • I did good today.

Feedback?

Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.