20052019 Monday – HTF Gap Up – TTF DT TC

20052019 Monday – HTF Gap Up – TTF DT TC

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Confirm As Resistance
  • CAS = Confirm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
  • LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
  • DPP = Daily Pivot Point
  • DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
  • DS = Daily Support (pivot)
  • WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
  • WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
  • HL = Higher Low
  • HH = Higher High
  • LH = Lower High
  • LL = Lower Low
  • SD = Standard Deviation
  • VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = London Session (EU)
  • NY = New York Session (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Lower Time Frame
  • TTF = Trading Time Frame
  • HTF = Higher Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Weekly goal
    • Eat very little rice, noodles etc.
  • How do you feel?
    • I am tired because didn’t sleep much on the weekend but not too bad.
  • How would you rate it (1-5)?
    • 3

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Next release Tuesday, May 21st
  • EIA report
    • Next release Wednesday, May 22nd

Intraday Technical Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define context
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 63.803
        • PVAH 63.583
        • PPOC 63.272
        • PVAL 63.068
        • Low 62.682
      • Where is the LIS?
        • PVAH area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • No HTFLKCBO
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • HTF50MABD
  • TTF
    • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • PVAHBD
    • What has the Asian Session printed?
      • We gapped up but still within the HTFUKC and just reentered TTF UKC. Possible Gap fill?

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • PVAHBD
      • Enter around 63.50
      • Targets 63.30, 63.10, 62.90
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF50MACAS PPOCCAS
    • Enter around 63.40
    • Targets 63.65, 63.85
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • PVAHCAS Prev High BO
    • Enter around 63.65
    • Targets 63.85, 64.05

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

  • Define winning
    • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later

Reading the Tape

  • What is printing?
    • 16:05
      • A/D bars at the open, possible TTF R day
    • 16:35
      • Possible TTF200MABD, waiting for a TC setup
    • 17:05
      • TTF DT  to PVAL making a PB looking for TC setup around PPOC level
    • 17:35
      • We are still above PVAL and have not BD or bounced back. Buyers seem to be coming in
    • 18:05
      • Move back to TTFVWAP with Full-bodied candles at VWAP indicating a possible reversal
    • 18:35
      • Drop to HTFLKC and now retesting TTF VWAP again. Price slowed down and since we are so close to HTFLKC I will not take another short
    • 19:05
      • Price returned to TTF VWAP LKC PVAL area possible reversal
    • 19:35
      • TTF50MACAR possible HTFLKCBD

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

  • T1  (2nd account during AS)
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • Gap up at AS open followed by LHs
      • TTF
        • Entry 63.81
      • LTF
      • SL
        • TP
          • 63.52
        • Trade Management
          • Covered at 63.73

      • T2 (2nd account)
        • Why? What do I see?
          • HTF
            • HTF50MABO after a gap up at AS open
          • TTF
            • Move to TTF 2.0 SD
            • Entry 63.10
          • LTF
            • LTF TC @ 50MA
        • SL
          • TP
            • 62.86
          • Trade Management
            • Thinking it will reverse since there are full-bodied candles at TTF VWAP and we haven’t made a significant LL
            • Covered at 63.02 in profit because we had hit HTFLKC

        Daily Report Card

        Trade Idea

        • Hypo 1 Short
          • PVAHBD
            • Enter around 63.50
            • Targets 63.30, 63.10, 62.90
        • Hypo 2 Long
          • HTF50MACAS PPOCCAS
          • Enter around 63.40
          • Targets 63.65, 63.85
        • Hypo 3 Long
          • PVAHCAS Prev High BO
          • Enter around 63.65
          • Targets 63.85, 64.05

        Date:5/20/2019Weekly GoalExecute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
        Combined Score77
        Process Report Card (10 each)Performance Report Card (10 each)
        9Pre-market routines10Hypos
        7Session PECS6Real-time analysis
        8Trading the process7Trade selection
        10Daily review5Trade Execution & Mgmt.
        8Progress toward Weekly goal7Risk Adjusted Returns
        42Total35

        • Weekly Goal
          • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later
        • Review
          • 3 opportunities 2 taken
            • 1) during AS experimental trade on 2nd account I will incorporate this into my PB for further study
            • 2) Did not take the setup – replay event + work into PB
            • 3) TTF TC
        Entry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeMistakes (if any)SizingHit Target?Reason to coverProblemProposed solution
        00(Experimental) Gap Up, shorted for a possible gap fill10NOCovered (in profit) because I had to leave my desk and could not actively monitor my position
        10TTF NTNot takenTTF was showing price action in line with A/D behavior and KC was widening so I was expecting a TTF R play, instead it was a TTF NT and I missed my entry. I didn’t wanna chase the market so I let it go and waited for a TTF TC opportunityI will replay the event and include ‘new’ market structure into my playbook
        00TTF TC5YESHTFLKC

        • How accurate was my assessment of market context?
          • HYPO1 100%
        • How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
          • I am tired from the weekend and definitely wasn’t as sharp today although I feel I still did well managing my thoughts and emotions
        • What’s one thing you learned today?
          • I learned more about the market structure around a ‘Gap’ day
        • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
          • Keep observing like a scientist
        • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
          • Even though I didn’t do it but I should still warn myself that my 2nd account is not to take trades I won’t on my 1st but it is to take experimental trades according to my PB.

        Feedback?

        Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.

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