27052019 Monday – HTF R – TTF R NT TC 200MABO

27052019 Monday – HTF R – TTF R NT TC 200MABO

Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Confirm As Resistance
• CAS = Confirm As Support
• UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
• LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
• DPP = Daily Pivot Point
• DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
• DS = Daily Support (pivot)
• WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
• WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
• HL = Higher Low
• HH = Higher High
• LH = Lower High
• LL = Lower Low
• SD = Standard Deviation
• VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = London Session (EU)
• NY = New York Session (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Lower Time Frame
• TTF = Trading Time Frame
• HTF = Higher Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Weekly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good. Slept enough early and enough last night. Feel good.
• How would you rate it (1-5)?
  • 5

Market Prep

Intraday Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release Thursday, May 30th, 2019
• EIA report
  • Weird. On the same day?
  • Next release Thursday, May 30th, 2019

Intraday Technical Analysis

• HTF
  • Define context
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 59.095
      • PVAH 58.785
      • PPOC 58.564
      • PVAL 58.178
      • Low 57.489
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 57.80 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We did not drop further and we seem to be in a HTF R
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Balancing in HTF R

• TTF
  • What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • PPOC CAR / BO
  • What has the Asian Session printed?
    • TTF DT from HTF UKC to wards LKC indicating HTF R in effect

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 58.55
  • Targets 58.70, 58.90
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 58.45
  • Targets 58.20, 57.90, 57.70
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Prev High CAR
  • Entry around 58.90
  • Targets 58.60

My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)

• Define winning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later.

Reading the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 15:05
    • Possible TTF200MACAR / PPOC CAR with double top, HTF R still in effect, TTF R might go into effect as well
  • 15:35
    • TTF showing full-bodied candles, possible A/D, KC narrow could see a TTF NT
    • Edit: no A/D instead less liquidity (spread is 48/49) because of Memorial day + early close (US), Spring Bank Holiday in UK,
  • 16:05
    • Market has not made a move. I will not update this until something happens.
  • 16:35
    • N/A
  • 17:05
    • Crossed TTF50MA on slightly higher momentum and then died off again
  • 17:35
    • There was a TTF R TC setup although not much follow-through on the move
  • 18:05
    • HTF TTF and LTF all flat
  • 18:35
    • N/A
  • 19:05
    • Testing of TTF200MA possible BO
  • 19:35
    • TTF200MABO attempt

Trade Management

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade

• T1 (2nd account, experimental)
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R 50MABO
    • TTF
      • TTF R TC
      • Long Entry 10 @ 58.61
    • LTF
      • LTF T + PB to TTF50MA
      • LTFLKCCAS
  • SL
    • 58.44
  • TP
    • 58.85
  • Trade Management
    • I feel calm. HTF is showing a possible move from 50MA to UKC so TP is below that. UKC is at 59.05 area TP is at 58.85
    • NY liquidity might cause trouble in a bit though
      • Price just dropped to VWAP again and we might be BD here
      • Last 5 min before NY open
    • Even though I think that I will get stopped out, sellers can’t seem to bring price down as well we are still above TTF VWAP

Daily Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 58.55
  • Targets 58.70, 58.90
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 58.45
  • Targets 58.20, 57.90, 57.70
• Hypo 3 Short
  • Prev High CAR
  • Entry around 58.90
  • Targets 58.60

	Date:	5/27/2019	Weekly Goal	Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Combined Score	91
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Performance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Session PECS	100%	10	Real-time analysis
	1	Hypos	0/0	10	Setups Identified
	10	Trading the process	0/0	10	Setups taken
	10	Daily review	0	10	Erroneous Entries
	10	Progress toward Weekly goal	0	10	Erroneous Exits
	41	Total		50

• Weekly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later.
• Review
  • Kinda rushed a bit through my market prep because of lack of time due to other commitments
  • Almost did not take a trade until very late in the session. I took a setup that I have been experimenting with on my 2nd account. It got stopped out although still looking as if it will go my way. I will take note of this for my playbook.

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mistakes (if any)	Sizing	Hit Target?	Reason to cover	Problem	Proposed solution
0	0	–	–	–	–	–	Low Liquidity because of Memorial Day holiday + Spring Bank Holiday in UK	PA doesn’t act in a way that is conducive for my setups
0	0	TTF R TC (experimental)	–	10	SO	Stopped out	–	–

• How accurate was my assessment of market context?
  • Didn’t take into account that today’s is Memorial day + Spring Bank Holiday in the UK cause of low liquidity in the market also confirmed by the wider than normal spreads. So my Hypos were not good.
• How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
  • Did well here.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • When the reports don’t come out on Tues/Wednesday keep in mind that there is a holiday in the week. Remember this as part of your process.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be patient and let the market lead no matter how long you have to wait for your setup to arise.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Can’t think of anything now

Feedback?

Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.