Pre-market Prep USDCAD 05042020

This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:

The purpose of a premarket prep is to make alterations to my weekly trading plan and adjust a certain bias if need be. 

These were the hypotheticals in my weekly trading plan:

1. Swing Reversal H4 Supply ZOI
   1. Price action confirming on H4 rejecting H4 Supply ZOI
   2. Possible short entry around 1.417
   3. Targets 1.411, 1.406, 1.402, extended target 1.396
2. M30 VWAP BD
   1. Price action + MP extending IB confirming a break below VWAP
   2. Possible short around 1.406
   3. Targets 1.402, 1.396
3. Prev. Day High Reversal
   1. M30 Price action + MP extending IB confirming rejection
   2. Possible short around 1.409
   3. Targets 1.406, 1.402, 1.396

Observations of the market

• Hypo1 in play currently – accuracy 80%
• The Asian session has shown first signs of a possible reversal at D1/H4 QHi (within D1 Supply ZOI 1.40-1.43) by a bearish engulfing on H1/M30 but price is still above M30/H1 VWAP and upper KC. so unless they get broken I am slightly long-biased on the short term.
• H4 Candle retraced more than 50% possible forming a normal formation supply
• M30 Bullish engulfing at upper KC and VWAP (in line with rejection prev. Day high) indicating buyers are still actively trying to move price up but buyers might be drying up
• Hypo2 not in play (yet) possibility for another test of D1/H4 QHi (possibly a double top) meaning Hypo1 is still in play
• Market Profile
  • AS break above prev day NY VAH and came back to test this level
  • AS trading within DVA will need to see how London opens to get a better understanding. If London can open below AS DVAL (prev day high level) we could see a continuation down
  • AS developing profile looks like a trend day but more TPO structure being made around the middle of the profile indicating a balancing

Today’s hypotheticals

1. Hypo1 re-test of D1/H4 QHi + M30/H1 confirming a second rejection (forming a double top). SL would be within 25 pips, with target location exceeding 2x R/R
2. Hypo2 M30 VWAP BD. SL would be within 25 pips, with target location exceeding 2x R/R
3. Short term continuation of M30/H1 uptrend to move within D1/H4 QHi (higher time frame exhaustion). SL would be within 25 pips, with target location exceeding 2x R/R

Trade will either hit my target or I will close off with time-based stop loss at noon London time regardless of where the trade is.