USDCAD – Week 21 Trading Plan

This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not selling you anything. I just love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• Clean rally to Monthly Supply ZOI 1.38146-1.46872, followed by inside bar (after rejection of Q1/Y1 QHi) just below upper KC in a ranging market
  • Although developing month (no close) is testing UKC and MN QHi
• Price has not left MN Supply ZOI still above conterminous line 1.38157 but previous month close was below MN QHi
• Potential for normal formation or RBD

Weekly – Bearish

• Clear rejection of Q1/Y1 QHi within W1 Supply ZOI with multiple retests of W1 Conterminous Supply line 1.41851 indicating phase 3 distribution
• Price above upper KC in ranging market
• W1 Demand ZOI formed at the bottom of the Phase 3 range, conterminous demand at 1.41108
• Last week retraced the previous week’s candle back up but still within demand ZOI and W1 phase 3 range is still in effect

Daily – Bullish

• Bearish Engulfing from May 7th is retraced back last week and even though we have a new smaller bearish engulfing around the same level (D1 QHi)  we close above it on Friday with a bullish engulfing re-entering QHi and above D1 conterminous supply 1.40928
  • Phase 2 markup still in effect coinciding with the W1 conterminous demand 1.41108 (even though still below we could see an extension into the Supply ZOI above)

H4 – Neutral

• D1 conterminous supply 1.40928 same as H4 conterminous supply
• Price action unclear, big bar into H4 QHi but then another doji
• MN, W1, are up in trend. Daily is down. H4 is up

Market Profile – Balanced

• Indicating balancing in effect for the moment. Will update this every day to gauge intraday sentiment.

Sentiment summary – Slightly Bearish (Warning – some conjecture ahead)

• Larger time frames are looking bearish due to phase 3 on W1 and a possible normal formation / RBD on the MN1. Daily is showing signs of a potential move up on the short/medium term. Daily KC is sloping back down after being in an uptrend but we could see an exhausted move deeper into D1 Supply ZOI / reaching for UKC before eventually rolling over.

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1 conterminous supply 1.41851
• D1 conterminous supply 1.40928

ZOIs for Possible Long

• W1 conterminous demand 1.41108
• H4 conterminous demand 1.40529
• D1 conterminous demand 1.39504

Focus Points for trading development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: hold trade until noon (London time)
  • Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • No staring at M5 chart
  • Trade needs to have a target that has the chance of hitting min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for 
    • TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
    • How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade location
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screenshot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations