Premarket Prep USDCAD 05182020

This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:

http://bearmarkettrader.com/2020/05/17/usdcad-week-21-trading-plan/

The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias.

Non-conjecture observations of the market

  • No follow-through on D1 for an extension higher
  • H4 Evening Star into H4 Supply ZOI above QHi with consequent move below with some congestion at VWAP at the moment
  • M30 showing a break below VWAP into Friday’s Demand ZOI but pushing higher for the moment during AS (potential pullback to VWAP coinciding with D1 Supply conterminous 1.40928)
  • Market Profile
    • AS above PVAH but within London’s VA so the market is in balance for the moment

Compared against Weekly Trading Plan

  • Move below D1 Supply conterminous 1.40928
  • Overall in line with larger time frame bearish narrative but now focus is still the Weekly Phase 3 being in play unless we can see a break down

Sentiment – Bearish

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

  • W1 conterminous supply 1.41851
  • D1 conterminous supply 1.40928

ZOIs for Possible Long

  • W1 conterminous demand 1.41108
  • H4 conterminous demand 1.40529
  • D1 conterminous demand 1.39504

Focus Points for trading development

  • Exit rules
    • Option 1: hold trade until noon (London time)
    • Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips or x2 TP)
    • NO OPTION 3
      • UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
  • Entry rules
    • No staring at M5 chart
    • Trade needs to have a target that has the chance of hitting min. X2 R/R
    • Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for 
      • TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
      • TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
      • How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
  • I will post trades including:
    • Trade location
    • Price action entry condition
    • What were TPOs doing at the time
    • With screenshot
  • Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations

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