GOLD (XAUUSD) – Week 27 Trading Plan

This is my weekly outlook on GOLD (XAUUSD). Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Slightly bullish

• Price within MN supply pushing higher nearing potentially breaking Q1 swing high although still 2 trading days left in the month

Weekly – Bullish

• Price traded and closed close to it’s high within W1 supply above W1-C-S 1754.243
• New demand formed above VWAP and UKC with W1-C-D 1728.472 NEW
• Price still trading above VWAP and UKC after it tried to duck below and got rejected strongly
• Price trading within MN QHi but nearing swing high (same as Q1 and W1)

Daily – Bullish

• Bounce from W1-C-D 1728.472 NEW (also D1 demand) with D1 bull engulf and consequent move higher
• Consolidation above W1-C-S 1754.243 (and UKC) with a bull engulf finisher and long buying wick. However D1 supply still intact with D1-C-S 1763.823 NEW

H4 – Bullish

• H4-C-D 1762.048 Bull Engulf created after rejection of previous demand H4-C-D 1751.489 however there is still supply in the way H4-C-S 1773.757

Market Profile

• After a few days of a bracketing market price tested a break below value before it moved back up

Sentiment summary – Slightly Bullish

• Due to consistently making new highs I am of more of bullish sentiment. However due to reaching a Q1 swing high from October 2012 there might be some selling coming in so will adjust my sentiment accordingly throughout the week. 

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• MN1-C-S 1623.239
• W1-C-S 1754.243
• D1-C-S 1763.823 NEW
• H4-C-S 1773.757

ZOIs for Possible Long

• H4-C-D 1762.048 Bull Engulf
• H4-C-D 1751.489
• W1-C-D 1728.472 NEW

Focus Points for trading development

• Risk Management
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Trading Priority
    • FX pair outside value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R profit during LN consider trading PNYC
  • After 4 losing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can consider taking profits