Gold 2021 Week 29 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• June closed retracing all of May not within demand formed in April
• Trading above MN VWAP in UT
• Price rejected MN QHi although closed as a consolidation last month
• Price currently trading within last month’s body

Weekly – Slightly Bullish

• Price closed higher although as a Neutral spinning top
• Price rejected W1 QHi and has not arrived at QLo, instead reacted off W1 LKC in UT and made an Inside Bar and price trading higher giving W1-C-D 1781.434

Daily – Bearish

• Price activated D1 swing by retracing more than 50% from swing low and is currently trading mid swing
• Some consolidation and break higher giving D1-C-D 1807.590 followed by a Bear Engulf (exceeding 1.25x ADR) at D1 200MA giving D1-C-S 1826.301

Sentiment summary – Bearish

• MN QHi has been rejected so longer term bearish sentiment is still in play
• W1 has traded higher after not having reached QLo
• D1 created a bear engulf although exceeded ADR so there might be some short term buying pressure in line with a possible D1 2nd Chance Entry play testing D1-C-S 1826.301

Additional notes

• Jul 19, 18:00, GBP, BoE’s Haskel speech
• Jul 22, 19:45, EUR, ECB Interest Rate Decision
• Jul 22, 20:30, EUR, ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
• Jul 22, 20:30, USD, Initial Jobless Claims

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 1888.863
• D1-C-S 1826.301

ZOIs for Possible Long

• D1-C-D 1807.590
• W1-C-D 1781.434
• D1-C-D 1769.224

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Weekly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Trading rules
    • Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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