Gold 2021 Week 40 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• MN QHI rejected, currently mid swing
• Price closed below MN Supply forming an Evening Star but with a slight reaction off MN-C-D 1739.674

Weekly – Bullish

• Price reacted off and closed above MN demand and W1 QLo closing as a Bull Engulf with long buying wick

Daily – Bullish

• Big D1 Bull Engulf on first test of D1 QLo and slight continuation higher closing below D1 supply coinciding with newly formed MN Supply.

Sentiment summary – Bearish

• MN closed bearish increasing the expectation for more downside. ALthough with the nature of an Evening Star there could be a pullback 30-50% of last month’s bar before continuing down.
• W1 Closed somewhat bullish reacting off demand but let’s see what follow-through it gets. There could be some continuation higher first. 
• D1 Bull Engulf could see a test of newly formed demand. Price still below D1 VWAP in DT with no close within D1 Supply. Price is coming from a D1 QLo rejection but will need to clear that supply first for the sentiment to change to bullish. 

Additional notes

• Oct 08, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Payrolls (Sep)

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 1807.917
• MN-C-S 1769.539

ZOIs for Possible Long

• MN-C-D 1739.674

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, preferably 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time) 
• Weekly Goal
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
  • No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target, latest cut-off 1:30 London time
• Risk Management
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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