Gold 2021 Week 44 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• Multiple MN QHi rejections
• Price retraced to MN-C-S 1813.621 (MN Evening Star) and closed as an Inside Bar with longer selling wick
• Price trading at MN VWAP in UT

Weekly – Bullish

• W1 QLo rejected with no arrival at W1 QHi (yet)
• Last week closed as a Neutral Inside Bar after price moved higher from recently formed W1-C-D 1764.198

Daily – Bearish

• D1 Bear Engulf at D1 200MA and D1 QHi giving D1-C-S 1793.804 followed by another reaction
• Price failed to continue and closed as a Bullish Inside Bar below D1 Supply

Sentiment summary – Bearish

• Price retracing to MN evening Star C-sup isn’t the best bearish sign but price did close with a longer selling wick as an Inside Bar.
• No W1 PA reversal (yet) although price is trading at and reacted off W1 supply (that was tested multiple times)
• Railroad rejection of D1 QHi but with no follow-through (yet) instead a Bullish Inside Bar. Unless price fails to close higher within D1 Supply (or better take it out) the bearish sentiment prevails.

Additional notes

• Nov 04, 02:00, USD, Fed Interest Rate Decision
• Nov 05, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• MN-C-S 1813.621
• W1-C-S 1807.771
• D1-C-S 1793.804

ZOIs for Possible Long

• W1-C-D 1764.198
• MN-C-D 1739.073

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, preferably 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time) 
• Weekly Goal
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
  • No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target, latest cut-off 1:30 London time
• Risk Management
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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