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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- Last month closed as a Bull Engulf / RBR giving MN-C-D 1780.536
- Price did not close within MN-C-S 1848.366 and did not break the range high of the previous month
- MN QHi rejected and price trading mid swing
- Price is trading above last month’s body after having reacted off MN-C-D 1780.536
Weekly – Neutral
- W1 QHi Rejected
- W1 Bullish Inside Bar following a Bear Engulf (closing within supply) trading mid swing
Daily – Bearish
- Weak D1 Three Inside Down just before almost taking out D1 supply
- D1 QLo rejected and price is trading mid swing
Sentiment summary – Bearish
- MN has made a HH and is currently trading above last month’s body although price is coming from a QHi rejection and there is still a lot of congestion in the way.
- W1 QHi rejected and even though price formed a Bear Engulf there was no follow-through, instead a bullish inside bar that closed within supply. There could be a continuation to the move but price would need to take out supply first for confirmation. Otherwise price might still be range bound.
- There was a consolidation with longer buying wicks just below almost taking out supply followed by no follow-through. Even though price broke down it’s somewhat of a weak pattern. In lack of any bullish signs (yet) the bearish sentiment prevails.
Additional notes
- Gold statistically ends higher in December / January
- Watch out for tighter ranges
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time)
- No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Process
- Keep trade review comments short
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
