Gold 2022 Week 4 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

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Monthly – Bearish

  • Last month closed as a Bull Engulf / RBR giving MN-C-D 1780.536
  • Price did not close within MN-C-S 1848.366 and did not break the range high of the previous month
  • MN QHi rejected and price trading mid swing
  • Price is trading above last month’s body after having reacted off MN-C-D 1780.536

Weekly – Bullish

  • W1 QHi rejected and price trading mid swing
  • Last week closed as a W1 Three Outside Up giving W1 C-Dem although with some reaction off W1 Supply

Daily – Bearish

  • D1 QHi reached after QLo rejection (coinciding with D1 UKC)
  • Weak D1 Evening Star (leaving a longer buying wick) formed at D1 QHi at first test giving D1 C-Sup

Sentiment summary – Neutral

  • MN trading above last month’s body and range but trading within MN Supply
  • W1 closed bullish although did not close within W1 supply. A re-test of newly formed demand might not be the most bullish. 
  • D1 Evening Star created at D1 QHi although weak still technically a rejection. Price could follow-up on the W1 move and take out newly formed D1 supply at QHi. More information is needed. 

Additional notes

  • Gold statistically ends higher in December / January
  • Watch out for tighter ranges

Focus Points for trading development

  • Monthly Goals
    • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
    • Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time) 
    • No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target
    • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
  • Process
    • Keep trade review comments short
  • Risk Management
    • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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