This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
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Monthly – Bearish
Last month closed as a Bull Engulf / RBR giving MN-C-D 1780.536
Price did not close within MN-C-S 1848.366 and did not break the range high of the previous month
MN QHi rejected and price trading mid swing
Price is trading above last month’s body after having reacted off MN-C-D 1780.536
Weekly – Bullish
W1 QHi rejected and price trading mid swing
Last week closed as a W1 Three Outside Up giving W1 C-Dem although with some reaction off W1 Supply
Daily – Bearish
D1 QHi reached after QLo rejection (coinciding with D1 UKC)
Weak D1 Evening Star (leaving a longer buying wick) formed at D1 QHi at first test giving D1 C-Sup
Sentiment summary – Neutral
MN trading above last month’s body and range but trading within MN Supply
W1 closed bullish although did not close within W1 supply. A re-test of newly formed demand might not be the most bullish.
D1 Evening Star created at D1 QHi although weak still technically a rejection. Price could follow-up on the W1 move and take out newly formed D1 supply at QHi. More information is needed.
Additional notes
Gold statistically ends higher in December / January
Watch out for tighter ranges
Focus Points for trading development
Monthly Goals
No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time)
No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target
Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups