25 Sep Daily Analysis 9/25/2017
Daily Analysis 9/25/2017
Today is the start of a new week. Last week we had great volatility and I made some good trades. I found out I am more of a scalper but with a day and swing trading setup. What I mean by this is that I will have a strategy for a day or a few that will give me my bias. Then I trade my bias but take many small profits along the way. For example, in the last 2 weeks I took 68 positions. Of which, 61 winning and 7 losing trades. I will discuss my trades in more detail in a separate article because it has been insightful to see that on average I win per trade less money than on average losing. But because of the sheer volume I still made a profit.
Click here for my disclaimer. It basically says that I am on my path to becoming a trader and these are just my opinions on how to approach learning to trade. Feel free to check it out and comment on it. Or not. Up to you really.
Here it goes…
At a glance on the 4H
After we broke the purple resistance line 2 weeks ago, prices have been making higher highs showing a good bullish trend. It has passed the July high of 50.35 but not yet passed the high of May of almost 52. After the steep rally we can see that even though prices have made higher highs the momentum has clearly gone down and we are now in the process of consolidation at the 50.50 mark. On the upper side of the pattern we can see that prices have kind of peaked and are now slowly making there way down but are still at the midway point of the range of the month.
We can see that prices have barely crossed the 20SMA but have not yet broken it. We are still way above the 50SMA and 200SMA. I believe this week it will be interesting to see how this develops.
At a glance on the 1H
On the 1 hourly chart we can see prices are entering a tighter apex between the blue resistance line and orange support area. Price might reverse here and go back up and if there’s enough momentum pushing it it could break through the resistance line and we can make our way again to the 52 dollar mark.
Here we can see that prices have ducked under the 20SMA and 50SMA but haven’t broken it yet. If it manages to do this we’ll probably see a small move towards 50.40 and then we’d have to wait for further indications if price will go further down and potentially break out. We are still way up high over the 200SMA so a possible return is possible.
At a glance on the 15M
Here we can see a move to the orange support area and it would be interesting to see if it can break this point. My guess is that it would be good to go long around 50.45 to catch the bounce back after waiting for confirmation of prices going back up on the 5M.
Prices have ducked and broken the 20SMA and 50SMA indicating a short-term downtrend. Will this be enough to push prices down forcing a good pullback?
I believe that we are still going to a downward move probably in the form of a pullback. However, it is still uncertain to say when that will come. The higher time frames don’t give a ‘clear’ indication that a reversal is coming. It could very well first charge further up before making the pullback., I think this week will be important to see which way it will go.