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Daily Analysis 9/25/2017 - Bear Market Trader
My daily take on what I think is going to happen with crude oil.
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Daily Analysis 9/25/2017

Daily Analysis 9/25/2017

 

Today is the start of a new week. Last week we had great volatil­i­ty and I made some good trades. I found out I am more of a scalper but with a day and swing trad­ing set­up. What I mean by this is that I will have a strat­e­gy for a day or a few that will give me my bias. Then I trade my bias but take many small prof­its along the way. For exam­ple, in the last 2 weeks I took 68 posi­tions. Of which, 61 win­ning and 7 los­ing trades. I will dis­cuss my trades in more detail in a sep­a­rate arti­cle because it has been insight­ful to see that on aver­age I win per trade less mon­ey than on aver­age los­ing. But because of the sheer vol­ume I still made a profit. 

 

DISCLAIMER

 

Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it. Or not. Up to you really. 

Here it goes…

 

At a glance on the 4H

After we broke the pur­ple resis­tance line 2 weeks ago, prices have been mak­ing high­er highs show­ing a good bull­ish trend. It has passed the July high of 50.35 but not yet passed the high of May of almost 52. After the steep ral­ly we can see that even though prices have made high­er highs the momen­tum has clear­ly gone down and we are now in the process of con­sol­i­da­tion at the 50.50 mark. On the upper side of the pat­tern we can see that prices have kind of peaked and are now slow­ly mak­ing there way down but are still at the mid­way point of the range of the month. 

Mov­ing averages

We can see that prices have bare­ly crossed the 20SMA but have not yet bro­ken it. We are still way above the 50SMA and 200SMA. I believe this week it will be inter­est­ing to see how this develops.

 

At a glance on the 1H

On the 1 hourly chart we can see prices are enter­ing a tighter apex between the blue resis­tance line and orange sup­port area. Price might reverse here and go back up and if there’s enough momen­tum push­ing it it could break through the resis­tance line and we can make our way again to the 52 dol­lar mark. 

Mov­ing averages

Here we can see that prices have ducked under the 20SMA and 50SMA but haven’t bro­ken it yet. If it man­ages to do this we’ll prob­a­bly see a small move towards 50.40 and then we’d have to wait for fur­ther indi­ca­tions if price will go fur­ther down and poten­tial­ly break out. We are still way up high over the 200SMA so a pos­si­ble return is possible.

 

At a glance on the 15M

Here we can see a move to the orange sup­port area and it would be inter­est­ing to see if it can break this point. My guess is that it would be good to go long around 50.45 to catch the bounce back after wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion of prices going back up on the 5M. 

Mov­ing averages

Prices have ducked and bro­ken the 20SMA and 50SMA indi­cat­ing a short-term down­trend. Will this be enough to push prices down forc­ing a good pullback? 

 

Conclusion

 

I believe that we are still going to a down­ward move prob­a­bly in the form of a pull­back. How­ev­er, it is still uncer­tain to say when that will come. The high­er time frames don’t give a ‘clear’ indi­ca­tion that a rever­sal is com­ing. It could very well first charge fur­ther up before mak­ing the pull­back., I think this week will be impor­tant to see which way it will go. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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