20 Sep Daily Analysis 9/20/2017
9/20/2017 Daily Analysis
This is my daily analysis as a preparation for my day trading later tonight. The idea is to have this analysis done every day before I start trading. Then analyze my trades afterwards.
Click here for my disclaimer. It basically says that I am on my path to becoming a trader and these are just my opinions on how to approach learning to trade. Feel free to check it out and comment on it.
Here it goes…
At a glance on the 4H
On the 4 hourly chart we see that prices have rallied up to 50.75 dollars and then pulled back twice rejecting that level creating a resistance. After that prices have been trading between 49.70 and 50.75. There are 3 tops to be seen where the middle was the highest by just a little indicating a loss in momentum and a possible reversal to the downside.
Prices are hovering slightly over the 20SMA line of the BBs indicating a neutral position. However, it is clearly that prices are nowhere near the blue 50SMA and even further from the 200SMA. I would think that price would want to return to the mean, thus wanting in the short-term to return to the 50SMA. This would mean a pullback to about 49.50 dollars. If we continue the pullback towards the 20SMA that would indicate a pullback to 48.60.
At a glance on the 1H
On the hourly chart we can see that prices have rejected the 50.75 and created a double top which could indicate a reversal. Then it has dropped below the orange support area zone and threw back to that same level but started consolidation underneath the zone. This, to me, is another indication how we are getting ready to see more downwards price action. We see more support levels around the 50 dollar mark.
Moving Averages on the 1H
When we take a look at the BBs we can see that prices touched the upper band before dropping to cross the 20SMA and touch the lower band. Then prices went back to touch the 20SMA, which is the midway point of the BBs, before starting to consolidate. Another notable point is that the 20SMA has crossed below the 50SMA indicating further price action to the downside as well. At the bottom we can see the 200SMA sticking his head up looking for when prices will ever go back to hug it for a while. It looks like it won’t have to wait for too long.
At a glance on the 15M
On the 15 minute chart we can see in more detail how price are staying below the orange support area. At this point I believe it is anyone’s guess if price are going up or down. Although, as I mentioned before I do think it’s a higher probability that prices will go down. But before it does it might poke its head into the support area about midway point before heading back down.
Moving Averages on the 15M
The 20SMA on the 15 min chart shows us that prices have moved sideways after touching the upper BB towards the 20SMA to cross it. Then the BB indicated less volatility and has entered a squeeze waiting for the next big move. We can see that prices are above the 50SMA and therefore would be considered bullish even though it’s just ever so slightly over it. We do see that prices are underneath the 200SMA and therefore to be considered bearish. However, since it is ever so slightly as well, I’d see that on the 15 minute chart, the moving averages look neutral.
The 4H and 1H charts both indicate a higher probability that prices will move to the downside. However, the 15 minute charts look neutral. Even if it didn’t I would still proceed with caution since with trading there’s only one thing we know for sure. That’s, that we don’t know anything (for sure). Can’t wait to see how this plays out later today. Especially, since today is also the day that the EIA report comes out. I try not to look at forecasts since many times, the forecast can tell one story, and the perception of the ‘public’ can tell another. All I take those reports to be is a boost in momentum and volatility that will push prices into one or the other direction.