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Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take on the WTI crude oil market.

Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts is for me to set up my bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing positions. 

Sources will be list­ed at the end.




Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.


Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.


Related Financial Markets


The com­modi­ties that have a pos­i­tive cor­re­la­tion with WTI show an upward pres­sure ten­den­cy. Look at me, mak­ing up terms and stuff as I go along. Let’s look at the neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial assets. 

The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial assets show one up and one down so neu­tral I’d say. 


News — Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Thurs­day, sup­port­ed by sol­id GDP fig­ures for the third quar­ter in Chi­na, the world’s sec­ond largest crude importer, and soar­ing demand by the nation’s refineries.

Chi­na on Thurs­day report­ed third quar­ter GDP came in as expect­ed to show a gain of 1.7% on quar­ter and 6.8% rise on year, while indus­tri­al pro­duc­tion rose 6.6%, more than the 6.2% increase seen in Sep­tem­ber and fixed asset invest­ment gained 7.5%, below the 7.7% gain seen. Retail sales in Chi­na rose 10.3%, beat­ing the expect­ed up 10.2% increase.

Chi­na’s Sep­tem­ber domes­tic crude oil pro­duc­tion fell 2.9% to 15.53 mil­lion met­ric tons, accord­ing to the Nation­al Sta­tis­ti­cal Bureau on Thurs­day. Nation­al crude oil through­put rose 12.7% in Sep­tem­ber over the same year-ago lev­el to 49.34 mil­lion met­ric tons and nat­ur­al gas pro­duc­tion rose 10.7% in Sep­tem­ber to 11.2 bil­lion cubic meters.

Overnight, crude oil prices set­tled high­er on Wednes­day as investors cheered data show­ing U.S. crude stock­piles fell more-than-expect­ed for the fourth straight week eas­ing con­cerns over an expect­ed uptick in domes­tic production.

Crude oil prices con­tin­ued their bull­ish to the week after a report from the Ener­gy Infor­ma­tion Admin­is­tra­tion (EIA) showed crude stock­piles fell-more-than-expect­ed but an uptick in gaso­line sup­plies lim­it­ed upside momentum.

Inven­to­ries of U.S. crude fell by rough­ly 5.7m bar­rels in the week end­ed Oct. 13, beat­ing expec­ta­tions of a draw of 4.2m barrels.

The EIA report­ed a drop of near­ly 1.1 mil­lion bar­rels a day in U.S. pro­duc­tion from the low­er 48 States, putting total out­put at 7.9 mil­lion bar­rels a day.

Else­where investors con­tin­ued to mon­i­tor the pos­si­bil­i­ty of sup­ply dis­rup­tions amid ongo­ing polit­i­cal uncer­tain­ty in Iraq fol­low­ing con­flict between Iraqi and Kur­dish forces ear­li­er in the week.

Kur­dish forces on Tues­day pulled out of dis­put­ed areas in region after Iraqi forces ceased con­trol of the oil rich city of Kirkuk. The major­i­ty Kur­dish region of North­ern Iraq exports near­ly 600,000 bar­rels of oil a day.


SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil prices were sta­ble on Thurs­day, sup­port­ed by ongo­ing OPEC-led sup­ply cuts, ten­sions in the Mid­dle East and low­er U.S. pro­duc­tion due to hur­ri­cane-enforced closures.

U.S. out­put slumped by 11 per­cent from the pre­vi­ous week to 8.4 mil­lion bar­rels per day (bpd), its low­est since June 2014 as pro­duc­tion had to be shut because of trop­i­cal storm Nate, which hit the U.S. Gulf coast ear­li­er in October.

Ana­lysts said there was also a risk to sup­ply from polit­i­cal insta­bil­i­ty in areas rang­ing from the Mid­dle East to South America.

“The ‘Frag­ile Five’ pet­rostates — Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nige­ria and Venezuela — con­tin­ue to see sup­ply dis­rup­tion poten­tial, with north­ern Iraq crude exports at risk due to an esca­la­tion of ten­sions between the (Kur­dis­tan Region­al Gov­ern­ment), Bagh­dad and Turkey, while the U.S. has decer­ti­fied the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” said U.S. bank Citi.

Polit­i­cal risk con­sul­tan­cy Eura­sia Group said Sau­di Ara­bi­a’s plans to list state-owned oil giant Aram­co would increase pres­sure for extend­ed pro­duc­tion cuts.

“Sau­di Ara­bia will seek a pro­duc­tion shar­ing agree­ment exten­sion … as an IPO (of Sau­di Aram­co) remains part of the long-term plan,” the con­sul­tan­cy said.

“Price sta­bil­i­ty will remain a core part of the strat­e­gy … The gov­ern­ment still needs high­er oil rev­enue to sup­port its spend­ing needs and reform program.”


Technical Analysis




On the 4‑hourly we can see that prices have moved close to the apex of the orange tri­an­gle now, So anoth­er burt is upon us. Let’s see which way it goes. It’s fun­ny how the fun­da­men­tals keep show­ing upward pres­sure but the burst hap­pen the oth­er way only then to go back to where it was. Per­haps this is because we are back at the highs of from a month ago. Per­haps peo­ple and insti­tutes sell­ing off their long posi­tions? I think here we can prob­a­bly see a burst upwards through the dai­ly chart resis­tance trend line indi­cat­ed by the red diag­o­nal line. That would mean we will be going into ‘new’ ter­ri­to­ries for WTI crude oil. Let’s have a clos­er look at the 30-minute chart.




On the 30-minute chart we can see that I drew a pink tri­an­gle next to the orange big­ger tri­an­gle. This pink tri­an­gle was formed through the price action from the last two days. I believe it will call in anoth­er burst of move­ment pret­ty soon. Prob­a­bly lat­er this after­noon. With most times I try to not to ‘pre­dict’ which way a direc­tion is going but more have a bias. This bias will be con­firmed or thrown out when i see that burst happen.


Entry and Exit on the 5M

If the tri­an­gle breaks to the upside I will start tak­ing long posi­tions at 52.26 and put my exit at 52.36 and then at 52.60. If we go short I will put my entry at 52.14 and exit at 51.95.



The fun­da­men­tals look very bull­ish how­ev­er I have been wrong many times. So I will wait and see which way it will burst into. My own tech­ni­cal analy­sis shows me a neu­tral stance so I have no real bias based on that.


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think. 



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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