Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take on the WTI crude oil market.

Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts is for me to set up my bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing positions.

Sources will be list­ed at the end.



Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.


Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.


Related Financial Markets


The pos­i­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets look pos­i­tive putting upward pres­sure on crude oil.


The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed ones look neu­tral. One up, one down. The dol­lar is up though, mean­ing it usu­al­ly puts some down­ward pres­sure on crude oil. Let’s have a look at the relat­ed news.






SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil prices edged up on Fri­day, sup­port­ed by signs of tight­en­ing sup­ply and demand fun­da­men­tals, although a warn­ing about exces­sive Chi­na eco­nom­ic opti­mism still weighed some­what on markets.

The sta­ble prices came after a more than 1 per­cent fall in prices the pre­vi­ous day.

This was put down to prof­it-tak­ing fol­low­ing four days of straight gains, but also to a sud­den mar­ket slump which spooked traders after the vet­er­an but out­go­ing gov­er­nor of Chi­na’s cen­tral bank warned of a “Min­sky moment”, a ref­er­ence to exces­sive opti­mism about eco­nom­ic growth fueled by vast debt and spec­u­la­tive investment.

“Oil mar­ket has moved into mod­est under-sup­ply and we expect this will per­sist at least through the end of the year,” U.S. invest­ment bank Jef­feries said.

RBC Cap­i­tal Mar­kets said, “a strong indi­ca­tor that glob­al inven­to­ries are being run down will be when the mar­ket starts rely­ing on U.S. exports to fill deficits.”

Ship­ping data in Thom­son Reuters Eikon shows that over­seas U.S. crude oil ship­ments have soared from vir­tu­al­ly zero before the gov­ern­ment loos­ened export restric­tions in late 2015 to around 2.6 mil­lion bar­rels per day (bpd) in October.

“Phys­i­cal bot­tle­necks are unlike­ly to kick in until water­borne (U.S.) exports approach 3.2 mil­lion bpd,” RBC Cap­i­tal Mar­kets said.

Exports have been boost­ed since a pro­duc­tion cut led by the Orga­ni­za­tion of the Petro­le­um Export­ing Coun­tries (OPEC) has been in place since Jan­u­ary this year, and which OPEC wants to expand beyond its cur­rent expiry date at the end of March 2018.

“Our expec­ta­tion is that OPEC (and part­ners includ­ing Rus­sia) will extend pro­duc­tion cuts through the end of 2018,” Jef­feries bank said.


Source: — Gold prices drift­ed low­er in Asia on Fri­day with sup­port from phys­i­cal demand dur­ing Indi­a’s fes­tive sea­son fail­ing to aid sen­ti­ment and polit­i­cal risk on the back burner.

Overnight, gold prices rose on the Thurs­day as an uptick in polit­i­cal uncer­tain­ty in Spain weighed on risk sen­ti­ment while ongo­ing dol­lar weak­ness added to upside momen­tum in the pre­cious metal.

Sen­ti­ment on the gold, how­ev­er, remained neg­a­tive as mar­ket par­tic­i­pants said the pre­cious met­al could come under pres­sure amid signs of sol­id U.S. eco­nom­ic growth and expec­ta­tions for a year-end inter­est rate hike.

Gold is sen­si­tive to moves high­er in U.S. rates, which lift the oppor­tu­ni­ty cost of hold­ing non-yield­ing assets such as bullion.


Source: - Crude oil was nar­row­ly mixed in Asia on Fri­day as the mar­ket looked ahead to U.S. rig count fig­ures from Bak­er Hugh­es for direc­tion on shale oil.

Crude oil prices set­tled low­er on Thurs­day as data show­ing a larg­er than expect­ed build-up of prod­uct inven­to­ries con­tin­ued to weigh on sentiment.

Crude oil prices fell as signs that Opec would extend the glob­al sup­ply-cut agree­ment deal failed to off­set ongo­ing investor con­cerns over data show­ing a sharp rise in gaso­line and diesel supplies.

A week­ly report from the Ener­gy Infor­ma­tion Admin­is­tra­tion released Wednes­day showed U.S. gaso­line stock­piles rose for a fourth straight week while sup­plies of dis­til­lates — the class of fuels that includes diesel and heat­ing oil – increased for the first time since August.

The uptick in sup­plies of refin­ery prod­ucts such as gaso­line comes amid a tra­di­tion­al slow­down in refin­ery activ­i­ty as refin­ers under­go sea­son­al maintenance.




Technical Analysis





On the 4‑hourly chart we can see that prices have halt­ed at the resis­tance lev­els put on by months of big­ger time­frame trends. It went back to pre­vi­ous sup­port lev­els and is now con­sol­i­dat­ing at this point look­ing to break again up or down we don’t know. Definitely 

As I am writ­ing this prices have gone even more south.



I think prices will stay between the two turquoise sup­port and resis­tance lines for now. We’d have to see if this is going to be the new sup­port area or if it’s going to break down more. Let’s see if sup­port holds up 50.80.


Adjust and Adapt (evolve)


In the ear­li­er dai­ly takes I did I would go down in time­frames to look for more clues and give you my bias on what direc­tion I think it’s going to go. How­ev­er, I have come to the real­iza­tion that it doesn’t real­ly mat­ter. Just stick to your plan on the time frames that you want to trade and trade your plan. Regard­less. That’s the main thing you need to learn.


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think.




Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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